DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just popping in to say hello to some folks from my second home. Go to Tennessee multiple times a year. I see you're from knoxville. I don't know if you drink beer but my favorite beer is made in knoxville. The Blackhorse Brewery. Shame I have to drive to knoxville to get it since they can't ship it to me. If ya get a chance try it if you haven't already. Anyways love the state. Take care guys Nice! I know it's off topic, but I grew up in Nashville (and 3 years in Paris TN) and went to UT Knoxville. Tennessean at heart! I don't have my laptop with me at work today, but I have some pictures of me sledding back in the late 60's in Nashville I'll share. Man we had some good snows back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A little snow east Tennessee'ers? Hate seeing the shadow,, but like seeing the opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Just popping in to say hello to some folks from my second home. Go to Tennessee multiple times a year. I see you're from knoxville. I don't know if you drink beer but my favorite beer is made in knoxville. The Blackhorse Brewery. Shame I have to drive to knoxville to get it since they can't ship it to me. If ya get a chance try it if you haven't already. Anyways love the state. Take care guys Thanks for popping in! Yes I drink beer and I'm familiar with Blackhorse, a buddy of mine was a bartender there in the late 90s. Good stuff! You must be happy with the weather up your way eh? Drop by again sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A little snow east Tennessee'ers? Hate seeing the shadow,, but like seeing the opportunity. Boy the control run went nuts, 10 inches across a large portion of the valley late in the period, all of TN looked to be 3+. Showed snow covering most of Mississippi too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Thanks for popping in! Yes I drink beer and I'm familiar with Blackhorse, a buddy of mine was a bartender there in the late 90s. Good stuff! You must be happy with the weather up your way eh? Drop by again sometime. Haha no. The winter here hasn't been very good as of yet. Hoping the Sunday system brings some good snows. Had a couple nickel and dime events but nothing that's going to be remembered next year lol. Love their vanilla cream ale. Well nice to meet yall. Let ya guys get back to the weather. Good luck on some snow this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Both esm show a brief phase and OZ GFS had a phase but lost it on the 6z,the Euro is basically a open wave and never closes up until off shore.Doesn't look like right now that pesky piece to the SW is gonna move till next week then the N/JT is gonna squash the S/JT.Like Stove said lots of chances though coming up,hopefully someone will cash in and everyone will get something decent anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Basically all the AFD's from this morning lament the lack of any consistency in the models, they even note the ensembles are erratic right now. Everyone in the valley still has a shot imo, but we all know the sad trend this year is to be close but no cigar. I really hope this is the one. Flakes will fly north of 40 for sure, as I'll be back in Nooga for the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Basically all the AFD's from this morning lament the lack of any consistency in the models, they even note the ensembles are erratic right now. Everyone in the valley still has a shot imo, but we all know the sad trend this year is to be close but no cigar. I really hope this is the one. Flakes will fly north of 40 for sure, as I'll be back in Nooga for the super bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Time to ride the Euro from last night. It's in its wheelhouse, so not losing any optimism after seeing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GFS has a track I don't recall ever seeing before, so I'd guess it's probably not correct.. Tracks the low from Northern Miss to the Northern Plateau, then due East over the blue ridge into NW NC. I just don't recall lows that track NE then suddenly shift due east, especially over the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GFS has a track I don't recall ever seeing before, so I'd guess it's probably not correct.. Tracks the low from Northern Miss to the Northern Plateau, then due East over the blue ridge into NW NC. I just don't recall lows that track NE then suddenly shift due east, especially over the Apps. The Euro is similar,its riding a stalled out boundary,the euro is more S than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The GFS has a track I don't recall ever seeing before, so I'd guess it's probably not correct.. Tracks the low from Northern Miss to the Northern Plateau, then due East over the blue ridge into NW NC. I just don't recall lows that track NE then suddenly shift due east, especially over the Apps. yeah the models have done strange looking things this winter, that is definitely one of them to me. I think over coming model runs it'll average out it track to be more linear, and not making jogs like that. Hopefully it settles on just east of the apps never crossing in to TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 WPC Day 3 Sea Level Pressures and Fronts.pngWPC Day 4 Sea Level Pressures and Fronts.png That's a better track, but the SREF plumes and meteograms still have very little consistency so I wonder where they're getting this from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That's a better track, but the SREF plumes and meteograms still have very little consistency so I wonder where they're getting this from. The maps looks exactly like last night Euro.LP riding the stalled out boundary then getting picked up by the cold front and closing off somewhere around the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The 12z GEFS has the low from west TN to southeast KY. Not an encouraging development, but will ride the euro till it folds. Put this in the SE forum, meant to put it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If I'm looking at it right, it looks like the 12z GGEM sends the low south of us and up through the Carolinas. The 850s seem significantly colder but the surface stays warm enough to limit snow. The 0z solution had the track through TN and was quite a bit juicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's track runs North Texas, Jackson Miss, Augusta, then off Hattaras. Buries Kentucky and gives 2-3 inches maybe along the Ky border counties. Very encouraging track and would be very close to a big snow for a lot of people north of 40 if it happen with the H in the midwest. It's been consistent with the H to the north, but last night it cut the storm right into the HP. Today it slides it beneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It's pretty much showing surface and 850 temps of around 33-35 degrees. I'd take it's look for here and gamble that the warm nose wouldn't quite push as far north as it's showing. Far better than it's track last night or the current GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It also shows some odd temps, several times it has -10 to -20 temps in Central Indiana but 20-30 here during that time with the cold never really pushing south. I have a hard time buying an air mass that can push -15 to Indianapolis won't penetrate down to here with some temps in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You'll have to drive nearly to the Ohio River to see significant snow except for a couple of inches in SW VA if the 12z Euro is correct. The 540 thickness doesn't sweep through until the precip is moving out. Maybe a token inch for higher elevations. The rest of the run is boring although it does get cold and it does get wet, just not at the same time. Edit: And it looks like the ensemble mean and control agree with the op for the super storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Morristown afternoon disco makes apparent that MRX hasn't yet bet the farm on the track of the low yet, and they want to see a couple more model runs to up their confidence on the forecast. .LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS PICKUP WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENTWITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OURAREA ON SUNDAY. MOST MODELS NOW HAVE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEARTHE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOULDTHIS SOLUTION PAN OUT IT WOULD LEND TOWARDS MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP INTHE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHILE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDING ONTHE TIME OF DAY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. AT THISPOINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERNHALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MAYBE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIAWHEN EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE. OF OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SNOW INTHE MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF US OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTOMONDAY WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY.THIS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL COULD ADD UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PUT THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL.WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO OF MODELS HITTING ON A SIMILARSOLUTION TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE SINCE PREVIOUSLY THEY WERE HAVING ADIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE LATEST RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Good luck getting 2 or 3 in a row to show the same thing! They all agree on a storm and that's about it right now. We just saw a 75 mile track miss within 12 hours. 75 miles has a big difference in where the rain snow line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS now shows it as an apps runner right up the TN/NC line into SW VA, then it moves SE out of VA into NC then ejects NE. Another sort of odd movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Remember the Spirograph we had as kids? Seems the GFS is following those design patterns for the LP track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS now shows it as an apps runner right up the TN/NC line into SW VA, then it moves SE out of VA into NC then ejects NE. Another sort of odd movement. I noticed that too and I don't think it's correct. As far as the Euro goes, considering how it's been performing this winter I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye of the euro either. Something's fishy with these models and something tells me we may have to wait to within a 24 hour window to know what might be going on - if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 If you take a blend of everything we've seen modeled over the past several days I think you come up with a dusting to an inch or so 40 north on the backside of this one with John's house and the mountains doing a little better. I'd wager that's what happens. It'll be interesting to get into the RGEM/SREF/NAM wheelhouse and see if there is better consistency on the specifics and who knows it may come down to HRRR/RAP before we can say who gets an inch and who doesn't. I'd love to be wrong and someone in the valley get 3 or 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well whatever happens we will always have last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well whatever happens we will always have last winter Unless you live in Nashville or Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well whatever happens we will always have last winter Yes we will my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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