tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 a guy named WXsouth posted this on fb for whatever its worth 5-8 in Nashville? I call "bunk" on that map. lol. Just kidding of course, I hope you guys score a nice one before we find a different pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 5-8 in Nashville? I call "bunk" on that map. lol. Just kidding of course, I hope you guys score a nice one before we find a different pattern. Yeah. I think BEST case scenario taking a model blend would be 1-3" here and that's pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't believe that came from WxSouth. WxSouth is Robert Gamble, respected meterologist. Wxeastern is known as Toot, and he may be fine but I don't know much about him. I think someone posted this map as a reply in one of WxSouth's FB posts. Yep, this guy is a pretend meteorologist with absolutely no professional training, I've met him and can verify. His maps are fantasies that he peddles on facebook hoping to trick people into thinking he's the real thing. He has been busted using alt facebook accounts that back up his "credentials", having conversations with himself, etc. Just letting people know what's going on with that as call maps start flying around everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep, this guy is a pretend meteorologist with absolutely no professional training, I've met him and can verify. His maps are fantasies that he peddles on facebook hoping to trick people into thinking he's the real thing. He has been busted using alt facebook accounts that back up his "credentials", having conversations with himself, etc. Just letting people know what's going on with that as call maps start flying around everywhere. Einhorn is finkle, finkle is...Einhorn! Sorry for the confusion, will edit or delete post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree, most models are showing the heavy snow a bit too far south. My very amateur guess is that Tennessee will end up getting Moe snow than currently predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WPC percent of probability of exceeding minimum criterion for Winter Storm Watch/Warning based on 12 Hour snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z UKie, seems it's precip has ticked a tad north and west as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Yep, this guy is a pretend meteorologist with absolutely no professional training, I've met him and can verify. His maps are fantasies that he peddles on facebook hoping to trick people into thinking he's the real thing. He has been busted using alt facebook accounts that back up his "credentials", having conversations with himself, etc. Just letting people know what's going on with that as call maps start flying around everywhere. That's about what I am except I don't pretend to be a met, lol. Anyways, Winter Storm Watches are going up as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 MRX WSW is out for East TN... TNZ081>084-098-099-250345- /O.EXB.KMRX.WS.A.0003.150225T1800Z-150226T1200Z/SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MARION-HAMILTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA231 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING.* EVENT...SNOW...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...IS EXPECTED TOBEGIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5INCHES IS POSSIBLE.* TIMING...SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I wonder if the NAM could revert back to this run from yesterday which I am sure is on the high side but it had done something similar for the last big storm. If I am understanding correctly, most of the non-hi res models do a good job with northern precip fields but the nam tends to handle them best...or is this an improbability given the fact that NAM has trended a good ways down from the prior days numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here are the latest SREF snowfall means: TRI:5.85" TYS:5.44" CHA:4.52" CSV: 5.83" BNA:4.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 new sref looks to have a more expansive precip shield back into east TN now, where at 9z it stayed on the border b/w NC and TN. speaking to the heavier returns, not the track of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As noted before system is similar to the big one last year. First I will compare and contrast. Then I will share why I favor the north track. Frankly I'm no longer wishing north because too much can go wrong in Chatty. Last year the sfc HP was stronger but this year the surface is colder. LY 850 low was a little father south but TY it is colder. LY 700/500 had more WAA but TY it is a little more of a slider; closing up more recent runs though. I'm afraid if it closes up any more the 850 low will be a little more north. That would be a problem for CHA and a snow killer for ATL. I have to agree with the northern side of the snow shield over achieving in Tenn. That is some low hanging fruit for beating NWP! If the comma head from the NAM verifies, Memphis and Nashville even look good. I'm concerned about boundary layer temps southern Tenn border south. Still heavy snow sticks above freezing. Track might depend on little sfc HP ridge Ohio Valley in wake of GL front overnight. GFS is stronger HP; hence more south on storm track. NAM is weaker HP; if it gets any weaker boundary layer could be a real problem for CHA. I'd rather be in TYS MRX or Kingsport models be damned. Don't know how terrain will work for JC but this could be another Kingsport goodie first half. JC should be fine for good snow back half. I'm down here worrying about Chatty and I will until 00Z runs keep CHA cold enough. I really appreciate you chiming in Jeff, I hope you get the goods in Nooga! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 new sref looks to have a more expansive precip shield back into east TN now, where at 9z it stayed on the border b/w NC and TN. speaking to the heavier returns, not the track of the low. I am amazed at the SREF. It could very well be wrong, but that is one helluva consistent trend run after run after run. Keep in mind, it was the first model to sniff out the northern trend for the Feb 16th storm. I noticed on the plumes for TYS that there are quite a few members between about 7 and 9, and only one member at 1 inch that was bringing the mean down. All the members are 2.5 or higher. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I wonder if the NAM could revert back to this run from yesterday which I am sure is on the high side but it had done something similar for the last big storm. If I am understanding correctly, most of the non-hi res models do a good job with northern precip fields but the nam tends to handle them best...or is this an improbability given the fact that NAM has trended a good ways down from the prior days numbers? That 0Z would have higher totals because this morning's storm was added to that. So for all those amounts to see the true amount you would have to remove 1-3" depending on location, which puts it pretty consistent with latest NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I am amazed at the SREF. It could very well be wrong, but that is one helluva consistent trend run after run after run. Keep in mind, it was the first model to sniff out the northern trend for the Feb 16th storm. I noticed on the plumes for TYS that there are quite a few members between about 7 and 9, and only one member at 1 inch that was bringing the mean down. All the members are 2.5 or higher. Very interesting. Yeah, it is interesting. I would anticipate similar numbers for TRI. It will be interesting to watch it play out as the difference between it and other modeling for Nashville could mean the difference between zip and 3 inches. Talk about a tricky forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 That 0Z would have higher totals because this morning's storm was added to that. So for all those amounts to see the true amount you would have to remove 1-3" depending on location, which puts it pretty consistent with latest NAM runs. Yeah, and it's worth keeping in mind that there are some relatively small leftovers from the morning storm inflating the Euro and UKie maps I posted, like less than 2 inches, but you can still see the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Have opened a thread for this event...hopefully this does not counter the winter cancel mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As noted before system is similar to the big one last year. First I will compare and contrast. Then I will share why I favor the north track. Frankly I'm no longer wishing north because too much can go wrong in Chatty. Last year the sfc HP was stronger but this year the surface is colder. LY 850 low was a little father south but TY it is colder. LY 700/500 had more WAA but TY it is a little more of a slider; closing up more recent runs though. I'm afraid if it closes up any more the 850 low will be a little more north. That would be a problem for CHA and a snow killer for ATL. I have to agree with the northern side of the snow shield over achieving in Tenn. That is some low hanging fruit for beating NWP! If the comma head from the NAM verifies, Memphis and Nashville even look good. I'm concerned about boundary layer temps southern Tenn border south. Still heavy snow sticks above freezing. Track might depend on little sfc HP ridge Ohio Valley in wake of GL front overnight. GFS is stronger HP; hence more south on storm track. NAM is weaker HP; if it gets any weaker boundary layer could be a real problem for CHA. I'd rather be in TYS MRX or Kingsport models be damned. Don't know how terrain will work for JC but this could be another Kingsport goodie first half. JC should be fine for good snow back half. I'm down here worrying about Chatty and I will until 00Z runs keep CHA cold enough. Thanks Jeff,guess we will see if something can cover our lawns other than ice,would be a nice change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I am amazed at the SREF. It could very well be wrong, but that is one helluva consistent trend run after run after run. Keep in mind, it was the first model to sniff out the northern trend for the Feb 16th storm. I noticed on the plumes for TYS that there are quite a few members between about 7 and 9, and only one member at 1 inch that was bringing the mean down. All the members are 2.5 or higher. Very interesting. Yeah, everyone seemed to have more members above the mean when I looked at them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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