Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Add the 12z RGEM to the list of models coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z GFS a little north as well, baby steps but we are getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 My gut tells me that the Sref is going to be too far north with the heavy precipitation. I would go with a euro, Ukie, RGEM blend....for East Tennessee anyway. Does 2 to 4 inches in Northeast Tennessee sound reasonable? That is what I would go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The precip field on the 12z GFS gets into southern KY a little more and extends back to the west a little bit more. Man this system is booking it. Looks like no more than 6 to possibly 8 hours tops of snow in any given area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the NAM is going to be the most trustworthy for this. It handled this morning really well, it was going against most of the models yesterday early and stayed on it. I've heard through banter that the NAM is pretty good on southern stream events. GFS still has its under modeled precip shield but I also think its slowly coming around toward the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the NAM is going to be the most trustworthy for this. It handled this morning really well, it was going against most of the models yesterday early and stayed on it. I've heard through banter that the NAM is pretty good on southern stream events. GFS still has its under modeled precip shield but I think, but I also think its slowly coming around toward the NAM. I thought the NAM handled the last storm brilliantly before it lost it briefly, but for several runs it depicted almost perfect amounts in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 My gut tells me that the Sref is going to be too far north with the heavy precipitation. I would go with a euro, Ukie, RGEM blend....for East Tennessee anyway. Does 2 to 4 inches in Northeast Tennessee sound reasonable? That is what I would go with. At this point in time I'd agree with your gut. A general blend of models comes up with about 2 to 4 in the east TN valley. If the other models trend slightly towards the NAM/SREF though, this could be much better. 0z Ukie looked similar to the GFS to me. I'll be interested to see 12z Ukie and Euro to see where they wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And then you have MRX going with a more rainy solution here which I've not really seen on the models, unless I'm blinded by the clowns, which is possible. Edit: This thing is cobbing lower than 11:1 ratio so it will be a wet snow, as Robert said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 And then you have MRX going with a more rainy solution here which I've not really seen on the models, unless I'm blinded by the clowns, which is possible. Edit: This thing is cobbing lower than 11:1 ratio so it will be a wet snow, as Robert said. If this starts at night, I just can't see a rainy solution. Especially with the surface low on the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The 12z GGEM looks a lot like the GFS, widespread 1-2 inch deal for the south and east half of TN (little more near the mountains). The main difference is it lacks the GFS lollipop on Chatt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's what AccuWeather has to say about the mid-week storm . . . Another Snow Event for the South February 24, 2015; 11:19 AM ETComment The southern jet will remain energized the rest of the week as another storm crosses the South with a swath of snow. As you can see on our snow map, a swath of 3-6 inches of snow will go from Arkansas to the Carolinas. The proximity of the snow means that travel conditions across the South will be poor during and after the snow. This is a quick-hitting storm and will last for only half of the day/night. The pattern will change some next week with the core of the cold heading into the West and Plains. The East will get a reprieve from the extreme cold, but there will still be shots of cold air even through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's what AccuWeather has to say about the mid-week storm . . . Another Snow Event for the South February 24, 2015; 11:19 AM ETComment The southern jet will remain energized the rest of the week as another storm crosses the South with a swath of snow. As you can see on our snow map, a swath of 3-6 inches of snow will go from Arkansas to the Carolinas. The proximity of the snow means that travel conditions across the South will be poor during and after the snow. This is a quick-hitting storm and will last for only half of the day/night. The pattern will change some next week with the core of the cold heading into the West and Plains. The East will get a reprieve from the extreme cold, but there will still be shots of cold air even through March. Looks to me they are leaning on GFS type scenario. I personally hate accuweather maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z SREF total snow (includes some for the current storm): Amazing the trend on the SREF, plumes have consistently risen since early yesterday. TYS is up to a 5.5 mean for the Wednesday night storm! The SREF, correctly or incorrectly, is doing exactly what all models have done for the enitre winter. It is trending north and west. I ask you all, if you were in the consensus(not just SREF) bullseye today where would you worry the trend would go? I like our chances in east TN and the Plateau. Heck, even Nashville could get in the game. Last night's precip was barely seen on the models untl early to mid-day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF, correctly or incorrectly, is doing exactly what all models have done for the enitre winter. It is trending north and west. I ask you all, if you were in the consensus(not just SREF) bullseye today where would you worry the trend would go? I like our chances in east TN and the Plateau. Heck, even Nashville could get in the game. Last night's precip was barely seen on the models untl early to mid-day yesterday. Absolutely agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Absolutely agree! The SREF, correctly or incorrectly, is doing exactly what all models have done for the enitre winter. It is trending north and west. I ask you all, if you were in the consensus(not just SREF) bullseye today where would you worry the trend would go? I like our chances in east TN and the Plateau. Heck, even Nashville could get in the game. Last night's precip was barely seen on the models untl early to mid-day yesterday. Here here, east tn almost looks money on this storm, it's not like we need much of a NW trend...jog it NW by 25-75 miles and it's hammertime (relatively speaking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z Euro: How does that line up with 0Z? Don't have access to Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z Euro:What is the trend on that, Stove? Is it just now catching-on? Great track with light precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 How does that line up with 0Z? Don't have access to Euro. What is the trend on that, Stove? Is it just now catching-on? Great track with light precip field. It looks to be a hair north and west with the precip than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It looks to be a hair north and west with the precip than 0z. It is .Last run on the OZ only gave BNA .01.The 12Z gave .11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Right now GFS/Euro/RGEM are slowly moving towards NAM/SREF (in terms of precip coverage) while NAM/SREF continue to slowly amp up and benefit us more. Trend wise I think we are in a pretty good spot. Let's see what 18z has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It looks to be a hair north and west with the precip than 0z. It is .Last run on the OZ only gave BNA .01.The 12Z gave .11 Good trends. Even if the trend is really more just trending up qpf North and West. We have a few more model runs yet before most of us are actually affected by this storm. Guess we'll have to watch and see if they continue toward the SREF/NAM. Edit: As long as the SREF/NAM don't start trending toward GFS, then I feel pretty ok with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Precip shield on the north side of a gulf low is rarely modelled correctly. Generally it is shown too small. We've seen that happen many times over the last few years. MRX needs to put a watch out down here this afternoon. I'm obviously rooting for the NAM down here but I think we have accumulation on every major model now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Right now GFS/Euro/RGEM are slowly moving towards NAM/SREF (in terms of precip coverage) while NAM/SREF continue to slowly amp up and benefit us more. Trend wise I think we are in a pretty good spot. Let's see what 18z has in store. Packerbacker has a good graphic in the SE forum of the 0z Euro and 12z Euro. Definitely building precip back west. My guess is that it is sensing a stronger storm. Or it could be in error as it is at time a bit too NW with solutions. I like our spot. The models have gone had issues even to within hours of the event. Could still be a radical shift...my guess would be stronger still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks to me they are leaning on GFS type scenario. I personally hate accuweather maps. Me too, Shawn. Especially maps of the SouthEast done by Marguisity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Me too, Shawn. Especially maps of the SouthEast done by Marguisity. Ha ha... Yes especially!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 a guy named WXsouth posted this on fb for whatever its worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drake423 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wxeastern posted that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 a guy named WXsouth posted this on fb for whatever its worth I don't believe that came from WxSouth. WxSouth is Robert Gamble, respected meterologist. Wxeastern is known as Toot, and he may be fine but I don't know much about him. I think someone posted this map as a reply in one of WxSouth's FB posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Precip shield on the north side of a gulf low is rarely modelled correctly. Generally it is shown too small. We've seen that happen many times over the last few years. MRX needs to put a watch out down here this afternoon. I'm obviously rooting for the NAM down here but I think we have accumulation on every major model now. Yeah I think even if MRX plays it conservative like they did yesterday until late, will have to issue WSW for the southern valley counties if anything to have continuity with Peachtree City, and Huntsville. OHX same thing for their southern tier counties to keep continuity at the very least, and MRX with the mountain counties bordering GSP. There seems to be two camps right now, the amped up camp (SREF/NAM) and the weak camp (GFS) with Euro holding sort of the middle ground but trending in the direction of SREF/NAM. I wonder where MRX will fall with this in the afternoon disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.