Cotton7204 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is an opinion from a former met of WJHL. More in line with the models. I always liked rob, good guy and good met. I think a lot of people are going to be suprised with this one and wed/thursday storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z NAM Storm #2 (just storm 2 not total for both): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 WWA's are going up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z NAM Hi-Res total for both storms: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Advisory text. WWA for the valley and a surprise WSW for the mountains. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 955 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 ...SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS... .A WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND EAST TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE TN VALLEY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FROM GREENE COUNTY SOUTH TO MONROE COUNTY. MOST OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND PART OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY NEAR CHATTANOOGA ARE EXPECTED TO GET LESS THAN 2 INCHES. NCZ060-061-TNZ018-045-047-102-241100- /O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.150224T0600Z-150224T2100Z/ CHEROKEE-CLAY-JOHNSON-UNICOI-SOUTHEAST CARTER-EAST POLK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...MOUNTAIN CITY... ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...DUCKTOWN 955 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * EVENT...ACCUMULATIONS SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND CLAY AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NC. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 3500 FEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Wow....that was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Isn't this a rarity?? Models actually trending up before a storm event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Latest HRRR is beefy. Close to 4" for KTRI. 3" for KTYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I don't want to get my hopes up too high but the Wednesday storm chance has increased significantly for Chattanooga. If we can pull in a big one (or just pull one in at all) I will be a happy camper. The NAM looks great for our area but in the back of my mind I see either suppression city or some crazy move way north. I hope I'm wrong, I'm just being cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A little more snow is breaking out over middle Tennessee than modeled. Coming at you Jax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A little more snow is breaking out over middle Tennessee than modeled. Coming at you Jax. Think dry air will over come it though 1234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not had time to model watch today. The conditions here are amazing. I don't recall seeing them like this in my life. We've basically got 6-8 inches of solid ice from where the rain saturated everything and it froze this morning. Our temp fell through the 20s today and it's 20 now. I walked across what looks like half a foot of snow without sinking into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The SREF plumes are up again at 3z, here is the mean total through 87 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 6z NAM even better than 0z. Stronger and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 6z NAM total for just storm 2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Haha I see the 6z GFS is now trying to get on board for tomorrow night into Thursday. Still think it's precip shield is underdone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmundie Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Latest Sref Mean 09z has the surface low coming inland in the western panhandle and possibly some phasing/northern stream interaction - .25+ qpf covering much of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Latest Sref Mean 09z has the surface low coming inland in the western panhandle and possibly some phasing/northern stream interaction - .25+ qpf covering much of TN. 12z NAM is cutting also,dunno what to think so many model spreads 2 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Gridded NAM data shows 7" in Chatt and almost 5" in Knox...actually gives BNA 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Guys, here are the SREF means for snow. This also include totals from this current event; however, the current event seems to be underdone. For instance it has TRI at 2.5 for this event while I am pushing 5" here. The mean seems to be right in the middle of all the members which is good thing. No outliers really pushing up the numbers. Half the members seem to be higher than what the means are suggesting. Anyway, here they are: TRI: 8.20" TYS: 7.75" BNA: 3.72" CSV: 6.43" CHA: 7.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z NAM 24 hour total after storm #2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12Z Hi-res NAM out to 42 still snowing though... Also doesn't include but maybe .5 of an inch of today's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z NAM 24 hour total after storm #2: I have a feeling Chatt is going to get dumped on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Bet this afternoon/tonight MRX will put out WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 12z NAM 24 hour total after storm #2: If that verifies...bet that precip shield is even more robust. And it is pretty good now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Robert: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 One of you with good mojo needs to start a storm thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 One of you with good mojo needs to start a storm thread... I think Mr. Cancel should do it, go for it Bob! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here's the discussion Robert has to go with his map that Stove posted. WxSouth Georgia and parts of Alabama, Tennessee and Virginia. The core of the big snowstorm tomorrow night is this zone.There will be a lot of problems on this event.1) Its a WET Snow.2) Its a FAST falling snow3) There could be Thunder Snow some areas of Carolinas in particular...Tree branches can take up to 6" of heavy wet snow, but its the RATE of fall that allows too much clumping that it can fall off in time, so the tree branches snap or trees topple . I found out in a similar upper low where 10" fell in 6 hours.I'm not sure of exact snow amounts anywhere, but A general 3 to 6" and 4 - to 8" storm is likely this zone, with some localized FOOT amounts of snow in NC , SC or VA. And it all happens in a very fast time frame.For specific cities, I'll have a breakdown of zones. But for Atlanta and Birmingham, it may start as rain or mix, then both should go to snow with heavy rates, but any further north movement will bisect these cities. The interior Carolinas are cold enough for mostly snow rain at coast, maybe ending as snow. Winds WONT be a problem with this storm, or ICE, but there could be sleet mixed in a narrow zone in middle Alabama to the Midlands SC .Check WxSouth.com For a breakdown of more maps . Since this is a HIGH IMPACT event I'll try to keep all my weather Fans and Subscribers alerted on this potentially Serious Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 9z SREF total snow (includes some for the current storm): Amazing the trend on the SREF, plumes have consistently risen since early yesterday. TYS is up to a 5.5 mean for the Wednesday night storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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