jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z Euro ejects the energy out of the SW but the northern component is weaker resulting in an weaker overall system for us, mostly a 35 degree rain. Somehow 2/3rds of TN (northern and eastern) finagle 2 to 4 inches on the backside though. That is my rough description of what's going on, I'm sure someone else can better describe the whys and hows. GEFS looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z Euro ejects the energy out of the SW but the northern component is weaker resulting in an weaker overall system for us, mostly a 35 degree rain. Somehow 2/3rds of TN (northern and eastern) finagle 2 to 4 inches on the backside though. That is my rough description of what's going on, I'm sure someone else can better describe the whys and hows. Details are probably less important than still being on the playing field at this point. It will be interesting to see the individuals again today. I am sure there will be several "hits" on them. My guess is this is working toward an event for SOMEONE along around the I-40 corridor, but at this point there is no way to tell who wins (east/west/central). I didn't like the high pressure being modeled a little weaker on the 12z Euro, but not overly worried about it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 With some differences in heights and some cold air damming to the east the GEFS looks quite similar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Details are probably less important than still being on the playing field at this point. Bingo! I prefer to have my cold air in place though...but still many miles to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Bingo! I prefer to have my cold air in place though...but still many miles to go. From two days ago I am liking the trends (for the most part), but like you say, a LONG way to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z Euro ensembles aren't as impressive as 0z. About 18 out of 50 showed decent snow somewhere in the valley with a few big dogs thrown in. The mean was about 2 inches for most of east TN, more in SW VA. The control was a KY VA special with only the TN mountains doing well. Edit: I should clarify that was for weekend threat period. The members show additional potential from day 11 on and the mean snow is more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z Euro ensembles aren't as impressive as 0z. About 18 out of 50 showed decent snow somewhere in the valley with a few big dogs thrown in. The mean was about 2 inches for most of east TN, more in SW VA. The control was a KY VA special with only the TN mountains doing well. Amarillo TX appears to get buried again. At least someone south of I-40 is cashing in....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z eps is screaming in the 2nd-5th period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 12z eps is screaming in the 2nd-5th period No kiddin! Bristol: 36 members 2 inches or more 10 members 6 inches or more 1 member over a foot Knoxville: 24 members 2 inches or more 6 members 6 inches or more 1 member over a foot Nashville: 18 members 2 inches or more 4 members 6 inches or more 2 members over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 No kiddin! Bristol: 36 members 2 inches or more 10 members 6 inches or more 1 member over a foot Knoxville: 24 members 2 inches or more 6 members 6 inches or more 1 member over a foot Nashville: 18 members 2 inches or more 4 members 6 inches or more 2 members over a foot so what is your gut feeling? Seems like that is all we have this year as modeling is really worth sh-t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 so what is your gut feeling? Seems like that is all we have this year as modeling is really worth sh-t I don't think you want to trust my gut, but it says snow storm within 2 weeks for much of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 0z Euro similar to GFS, not cold enough but not too far off. The ensemble mean shows I-40 and north with 2-4 inches. The control is like the mean but with a massive hit on east TN, 10 inches or so. The individuals aren't as good as 12z but still pretty snowy with a few big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GGEM went from great, to a Cutter, now it's back south of the area but not quite far enough for anyone south of Kentucky to really do well. The GFS has went from suppressed and dry, to good, to a cutter. The Euro has waffled from Epic to meh, to who knows? It amazes me that somehow the models continue to get worse from year to year. This year, beyond 2 days is just a no go for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The individual euro members have enough members to keep the I-40 crowd's attention. Several good size storms in the first week or two or February. Whether it works out or now, who knows. Other modeling is also close enough to keep an eye on, though the trends the last 24 hours have been less encouraging than the prior 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's frustrating to see the cold air just out of reach 200 miles away, in February. Unfortunately this seems to be the theme that is settling in with some run to run consistency across the three main models. Maybe we'll see something a bit different once the big NE storm gets out of the way. It wouldn't take much of a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's frustrating to see the cold air just out of reach 200 miles away, in February. Unfortunately this seems to be the theme that is settling in with some run to run consistency across the three main models. Maybe we'll see something a bit different once the big NE storm gets out of the way. It wouldn't take much of a shift. There were some pretty big changes at 5h on the 12z GFS. I hate seeing the reflection of low pressures in the GL region, but IMO it's closer to something good than what we have seen the last several days on the GFS. This one is far from settled IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 There were some pretty big changes at 5h on the 12z GFS. I hate seeing the reflection of low pressures in the GL region, but IMO it's closer to something good than what we have seen the last several days on the GFS. This one is far from settled IMO. That 1046 high sure cooled things off late in that GFS run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Super Sunday looks like a super day to forecast rain. Following one late next week could be similar with low levels too warm. In both cases, and last work week, surface high north is too weak and/or retreating. Carolinas might have more to talk about, but wedgeland is a different world from our Valley. Euro and Canadian concur; and, I'll assume their 12Z runs will too. The extended 11-15 day period may become colder but it looks like northwest flow. One could hope a clipper buries itself in the Plains before ejecting east. We have not had much luck this year with southern stream out of Texas, even during split flow, so I guess pin hopes on clipper cluster. If you can travel last minute, might consider visiting the mountains for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Super Sunday looks like a super day to forecast rain. Following one late next week could be similar with low levels too warm. In both cases, and last work week, surface high north is too weak and/or retreating. Carolinas might have more to talk about, but wedgeland is a different world from our Valley. Euro and Canadian concur; and, I'll assume their 12Z runs will too. The extended 11-15 day period may become colder but it looks like northwest flow. One could hope a clipper buries itself in the Plains before ejecting east. We have not had much luck this year with southern stream out of Texas, even during split flow, so I guess pin hopes on clipper cluster. If you can travel last minute, might consider visiting the mountains for a clipper. Stop being realistic. j/k Models are looking rather "locked" in at this point, aren't they? I wanted to think there was a lot of wiggle room, but sure looks like an Plains to Ohio Valley type of system. With a nice high, perhaps someone can get an inch or so with back end precip, though that very rarely works out. Looking at the 12z Euro, it will be a slap to the face for New Yorkers if that system gives them rain on top of the bust they just came through, but that's what it's showing.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 One motivation to stay tuned to the models, according to Robert, is that the placement of the rain/snow lines for Super Sunday may not be sorted out until the we see exactly how the Friday system shapes up in the NE. It's still painful to see a triple fail 12z suite like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 The GFS and GGEM and their ensembles are encouraging for next week . I'm over the super dud this weekend. However the euro and the eps are very meh. There is good agreement on a gulf low day 8-9 on the eps but the euro and the eps mean both handle the PV and North Atlantic much different vs the other guidance so I guess we have to wait and see at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Models are busting faster than balloons at a kids birthday party. I have no idea if current trends will be right. They missed badly in New Jersey to New York inside of 24 hours. It does seem that the miss is always towards snow though. So pretty much the rest of winter I am in refuse to believe modelling and wait on snow to start falling mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 Models are busting faster than balloons at a kids birthday party. I have no idea if current trends will be right. They missed badly in New Jersey to New York inside of 24 hours. It does seem that the miss is always towards snow though. So pretty much the rest of winter I am in refuse to believe modelling and wait on snow to start falling mode. i think one thing everyone needs to keep in mind, the real bust in the northeast was track. 75-100 miles west and it would have been a different ballgame. A NYC meteorologist said it very well... http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The February time frame is still in play. Especially mid-week. Lots of time to go before this one is settled. 18z GFS shows the potential for this time frame. I wouldn't say that I am "bullish," but I am not betting on a bear market at present. Dacula, you are right. The storm was there. It just missed NYC...and we all know when a storm misses a major population center it never really happened. LOL. When a storm registers upper 70s on wind and drops 2' of snow...it delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 The February time frame is still in play. Especially mid-week. Lots of time to go before this one is settled. 18z GFS shows the potential for this time frame. I wouldn't say that I am "bullish," but I am not betting on a bear market at present. Dacula, you are right. The storm was there. It just missed NYC...and we all know when a storm misses a major population center it never really happened. LOL. When a storm registers upper 70s on wind and drops 2' of snow...it delivered. I agree. 18Z GFS isn't terrible, it isn't good either, but its still in that area where its not impossible to get some snow. The couple up coming southern stream systems have the potential to run tracks that can produce snow. One at 126H on 18Z GFS is just east of the apps, and the storm at 198H is just inside Hatteras. I would be more disappointed if they were running west of the apps, or GL cutters. So if we can just get a little more cold in... Fingers crossed the models aren't getting the Highs to the north at the right strength/placement just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ensembles still leave parts of I-40 in the game IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 00Z GFS is looking much much MUCH better for 135 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Better look out west,holds the phase longer with the SW,trough axis is further W and sharper,over all who knows if it's right,but it looked better anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 i think one thing everyone needs to keep in mind, the real bust in the northeast was track. 75-100 miles west and it would have been a different ballgame. A NYC meteorologist said it very well... http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/joestradamus.html Honestly, to me it's a pretty big miss from that short of a distance out. Maybe they should introduce winter storm cones like hurricane cones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Nashville disco .LONG TERM...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE AND MORE INTERESTINGAS UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES SOME SIGNIFICANTALTERNATIONS AND THINGS START TO TREND DECIDEDLY COLDER. MODELS AGREE IN FINALLY EJECTING YE OL WINTERTIME 50H CUT-OFF LOWFROM BAJA, CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BYNEXT TUESDAY. AT THE MOMENT, IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEAKENING CUT-OFFLOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF US TO KEEP SURFACELOW, AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP (INCLUDING ANY POSSIBLE WINTER WX),SOUTH OF OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. HOWEVER, WE`LL CERTAINLY HAVE TOKEEP AN EYE ON THIS EVOLVING PATTERN CHANGE TO SEE IF THIS MORESOUTHWARD TRACK REMAINS IN PLAY. ANY JOG OF THE LOW PRESSUREFURTHER NORTH, OF COURSE, WOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN A NEGATIVEFASHION, AND INTRODUCE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN MIDDLETN. EITHER WAY, AS WE BECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO COLDCANADIAN AIR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE WILL SIMULTANEOUSLYBECOME INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRYPRECIP. OUR FIRST CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ROLLS IN SUNDAY NIGHTAND MONDAY MORNING, AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS IN FROM THENORTHWEST, BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TEMP DROP BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO TRANSITION ACROSSTHE MID STATE. GRANTED, THE TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE. HOWEVER, MODELSSEEM IN SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT TO BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS TO THELIKELY CATEGORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. STILL LOOKSLIKE BAND OF S- WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO ONLYALLOW FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WE`LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THAT ASTHE EVENT GETS CLOSER. TEMP RISES ON MONDAY WILL BE MINIMAL,AVERAGING ONLY 2 TO 5 DEGS. WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY BEIN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. BRRRR! GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PLUMMETINGSOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA BY NEXT TUE, AS WEAKENING, PREVIOUSLYCUT-OFF, LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA AND GINS UP A LOWPRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BESOMETHING FOR THOSE OF US IN THE MID STATE TO WATCH, TO SEE IF ITIS ABLE TO PRODUCE A BAND OF WINTRY PRECIP IN THE COLDER POST-FRONTAL AIR. AS IS TYPICAL WITH TRANSITIONING LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERNS OFTHIS TYPE DURING THE WINTER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A GREAT DEALOF VARIABILITY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN UPCOMING DAYS. THIS WILL MAKEFORECASTING PARTICULAR PRECIP EVENTS A BIT CHALLENGING, ESPECIALLYTHE FURTHER OUT IN THE FUTURE PREDICTIONS ARE MADE. SO, STRAP YOURSELF IN AND GET READY FOR A BUMPY--BUT INTERESTING--WEATHER RIDE OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO WEEK AND A HALF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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