Jed33 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z GFS was more Robust both with the western edge of the precip shield and amounts for tonight and tomorrow's system but did not budge on the other events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z GFS was more Robust both with the western edge of the precip shield and amounts for tonight and tomorrow's system but did not budge on the other events Wow, no kidding... Eastern sections of the valley will actually do quite well if this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Wow, no kidding... Eastern sections of the valley will actually do quite well if this verifies . . and they will need to. We get nothing from the Wednesday system on the GFS. FWIW, the local RPM based model that I glimpsed on TV a few minutes ago (WDEF) had about 0.5 in Chattanooga with amounts rapidly increasing to the east from there. Looked like 2-3" towards the mountains. Wednesday's storm looked like a monster down here on his in house model, but he didn't show a clown map for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Earlier this WRF was showing a nice surge of snow into east TN tonight, now not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Latest RAP snow accumulation: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Northern Precip Shield still holding its own for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 In case anyone had concerns about soil temps (lol), you can relax: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 . . and they will need to. We get nothing from the Wednesday system on the GFS. FWIW, the local RPM based model that I glimpsed on TV a few minutes ago (WDEF) had about 0.5 in Chattanooga with amounts rapidly increasing to the east from there. Looked like 2-3" towards the mountains. Wednesday's storm looked like a monster down here on his in house model, but he didn't show a clown map for it. I still think we have a pretty good shot for the Wednesday system, but I guess we will just have to wait and see. It's definitely a very sharp cutoff on QPF for the first event, It really stands out on that RAP graphic Stove posted. Here is the 18z RGEM, I didn't see it posted in here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think the left over low level moisture in East TN is going to help tonight's portion over perform. Looking at dewpoints in AR and W TN, they are very low -0s to low teens, in East TN they are mostly low teens to low 20s. Won't take as long to moisten the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting meteograms for 18z suite, looks like cobb is pushing totals up. GFS cobb for TYS is 5.5 for the first storm, Hi-res NAM cobb up to 9.5 for both storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting meteograms for 18z suite, looks like cobb is pushing totals up. GFS cobb for TYS is 5.5 for the first storm, Hi-res NAM cobb up to 9.5 for both storms! What about TRI stove? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What about TRI stove? Pretty much the same, a quarter inch more on GFS and a half inch less on the Hi-Res. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Pretty much the same, a quarter inch more on GFS and a half inch less on the Hi-Res. BNA?...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 BNA?...lol Nothing on the first storm, Hi-Res has 2.9 at 11:1 and 2.6 cobb for the second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks Stove, btw the WRF is the model Mark Reynolds used to basically say no snow in the lower elevations of the Tricities tomorrow. I thought it was a pretty big risk on his part (or just plain laziness)....... as IF it does snow (as virtually EVERY other short range model shows) we could have thousands having to rearrange plans in the am. He'd have quite a bit of egg on his face. Of course it wouldn't be the first time. Not even the first time in the last week actually. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Has the criteria for winter weather advisory's changed lately? If you don't issue it by 9:00 pm then it's too late for those that turn out the light's and head to bed. Seems like pretty solid evidence for a widespread 1-3, 2-4 snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well it doesn't appear the SREF is backing off, check it out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks Stove, btw the WRF is the model Mark Reynolds used to basically say no snow in the lower elevations of the Tricities tomorrow. I thought it was a pretty big risk on his part (or just plain laziness)....... as IF it does snow (as virtually EVERY other short range model shows) we could have thousands having to rearrange plans in the am. He'd have quite a bit of egg on his face. Of course it wouldn't be the first time. Not even the first time in the last week actually. lol Reynolds in house model gave me .5 inches last time and I ended up with 8-10 additional inches. But I can't lie, I've seen those damn in house models score some wins over the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Nothing on the first storm, Hi-Res has 2.9 at 11:1 and 2.6 cobb for the second storm. Thanks,i was being sarcastic.Unless something drastic happens we won't see much of anything,good luck to everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks Stove, btw the WRF is the model Mark Reynolds used to basically say no snow in the lower elevations of the Tricities tomorrow. I thought it was a pretty big risk on his part (or just plain laziness)....... as IF it does snow (as virtually EVERY other short range model shows) we could have thousands having to rearrange plans in the am. He'd have quite a bit of egg on his face. Of course it wouldn't be the first time. Not even the first time in the last week actually. lol I watched that earlier. He showed the Viper model which like you said looks like the WRF. That model, in my opinion, is not very good from what I remembered him showing for the past few years. He sounded very confident too in saying that the precip won't make it across the mountains. He is going against the HRRR, RAP, GFS,NAM,RGEM, and others. He used the words up to an inch at most. Not very wise wording to me especially after the big bust Saturday (which that was the models fault really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Probability of more than 1 inch of snow (first storm): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The second storm is where I have my eye. Tonight is just bonus. The second storm would fit with the idea that a big storm accompanies a pattern transition. After this week, I think winter switches to the West. If we are lucky, the trough settles into the mid-section of the country for the new pattern. Been a great end to winter. Lots to follow. Would love to see everyone hit season norms for snow and below for temps. We have a shot at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 21z SREF Plume means for the over night/tomorrow threat:TRI: 2.43TYS: 3.05CHA: 1.72BNA: 0Means through 12z on 2-27TRI: 6.44TYS: 6.72CHA: 5.20BNA: 2.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 21z SREF Plume means for the over night/tomorrow threat: TRI: 2.43 TYS: 3.05 CHA: 1.72 BNA: 0 Means through 12z on 2-27 TRI: 6.44 TYS: 6.72 CHA: 5.20 BNA: 2.33 Thanks for posting those. Looks like they've jumped a couple of inches since last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Robert's latest https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Thanks for posting those. Looks like they've jumped a couple of inches since last run. No problem, I've been keeping an eye on them most of the day. This actually kind of reminds me of the 1/28/14 event from last winter that wasn't really modeled until about 24 hours out, and then trended upward most of the day leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z NAM Storm #1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 0z NAM Hi-Res Storm #1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Storm #2 is a hit for TN on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Here is an opinion from a former met of WJHL. More in line with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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