John1122 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Feb 14 had a similar strength/position at this frame and East Tennessee was getting 1-2 inch per hour snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Feb 14 had a similar strength/position at this frame and East Tennessee was getting 1-2 inch per hour snow rates. Yep! Eerily similar... Well I wouldn't be against it that is for sure, I got 10" out of last Feb's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like the GFS has the low about 100-150 miles south of the NAMs placement around New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We have multiple threats to track in the same week for the second week in a row... lol good times!This is the RGEM for tonight/tomorrow's little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The better maps won't be out until later this afternoon but here's the 12z UKMET: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Robert: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12z GGEM is way north of it's previous run. Still not quite enough for us but that was a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 12z GGEM is way north of it's previous run. Still not quite enough for us but that was a huge shift. yeah I don't know what to expect with this one, I don't think anyone does. These types f storms always throw out surprises and I just hope we are on the good end of one! Does not hurt being on the NW side of this thing given how these storms love to trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's the 0z Euro ensemble mean snow from last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWRAndy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What did the 12z GGEM look like with the shift north? Im in the NW corner of AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What did the 12z GGEM look like with the shift north? Im in the NW corner of AL Some of that in east TN/north GA is from tonight's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWRAndy Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Last weeks big system barely missed us to the north. This looks to barely miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 WPC is favoring the Euro as of the 12z runs. ...UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST......SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL BECOME AN OPEN BUT SHARPTROUGH AS IT APPROACHES TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE AWAVE ALONG A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSSINGNORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE 12Z UKMET AND ESPECIALLYTHE 12Z NAM HAVE BOTH TRENDED MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS SYSTEM ASIT EJECTS EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...BUT THEY ARE THEMOST AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OF ALL THE MODELS. THE 12Z GFS FOR ITSPART IS THE FLATTEST/WEAKEST SOLUTION. THE 12Z GEM IS ALSO RATHERFLAT AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GFS. THE 12Z ECMWF SPLITS THEDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FLATTER AND STRONGER CAMPS...AND HAS SOLIDSUPPORT FROM THE 00Z ECENS MEAN. WILL PREFER THE 12Z ECMWFSOLUTION AT THIS POINT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z UKMET snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z Euro ensemble mean snow: Control run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z Euro ensemble mean snow: Control run: I'll take either of those, but better yet, I'll take a slight NW shift of that. Make it happen Stove, get right on it! While i've had quite a share of winter weather, its not been ideal winter weather being more freezing rain than anything else for me. I still have quite a thirst for some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Huntsville NWS just issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Wednesday/Thursday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 15z SREF: The plume means are a little higher than that map indicates, both TYS and TRI are up to 4.8 inches. Several nice 8+ members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18Z NAM has more snow tonight along the I-75 and I-81 corridors. Even clips the Plateau. Don't worry all snow no frozen up there. Must be ingesting the more robust precip shield coming out of the Mid South. We'll see if it holds. I will comment on Wednesday tomorrow. At 60 hours it looks perfect, but 60 hours away is an eternity in the South. For now, time for nowcasting fun tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 18z NAM Clown. This is for both tonight's little system and the mid week one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 18z hi res clown map looks great for Wednesday. A general 3-6 inch event in SE TN, continuing to bring more precip farther north. I'd post it but it's a pain on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's the 18z Hi-Res NAM for the first event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Hi-Res total through 60 (still snowing in east TN): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Tonights fun: Through to friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Buckle up you SOUTHERN mid-south(ers). I hope you guys can reel this one in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If KATL doesn't get stuck a little too far south, this has potential to be the biggest snow there since sometime in the early 80's I believe. KATL didn't do well in the 93 storm, but the northern suburbs got hammered. This system could also screw the southern part of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Well the NAM and SREF have jumped north with several major lows the past week within 24 hours. I suspect the potential is certainly there again with the Wednesday system. I would say folks in the eastern valley will be tired of winter weather after this week comes to a close. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 SREF Plumes from the 15z run:For tonight/tomorrow the means are:TRI 1.37TYS 1.51CHA 0.82At the end of the run on 6z Friday the means are up to:TRI 4.88TYS 4.91CHA 4.58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'd feel much better about the mid week storm if the GFS was on board. It seems something will have to give soon, either the GFS folds or the rest of the models start trending south/weaker. The first clue might be with the next SREF run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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