ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 For the little midweek (Wed/Thur) feature the sref plumes for both TYS and CHA are at about 2". BNA 1", and TRI 1.5". Chatt has a member in the SREF pasting over a foot... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 If the short range models miss on this...that is awful. But yes, it certainly looks more robust to say the least. Well, they didn't handle this last storm too well in both qpf and p-type. Gulf waves of this sort can be the most tricky. I've seen it before where southern valley was forecast for just flurries, then it over produce and give an inch or two in places. I think models sometimes have a problem with the northern extent of precip on these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Huntsville NWS just issued WWA for their area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory for north Alabama: 1/2 inch or less of snow predicted at this time. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HUN&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 I really hope this one gives Tennessee a break; you folks needs some time to recover from the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory for north Alabama: 1/2 inch or less of snow predicted at this time. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=HUN&issuedby=HUN&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 I really hope this one gives Tennessee a break; you folks needs some time to recover from the last storm. Peachtree city just followed suit for N GA. I expect MRX will likely issue at least an SPS for Hamilton, Bradley, Polk, Cherokee and Clay NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 With the way the modeling has been lately I won't know what to think until I see the whites of the storm's eyes (aka within about hour 7 of HRRR/RAP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well, they didn't handle this last storm too well in both qpf and p-type. Gulf waves of this sort can be the most tricky. I've seen it before where southern valley was forecast for just flurries, then it over produce and give an inch or two in places. I think models sometimes have a problem with the northern extent of precip on these. Exactly my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GSP just issued a winter weather advisory for the western portions of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The EPS looks awesome for the Tennessee Valley with regards to the Wednesday storm. There really should be more talk about this one in here. Even if it inevitably trends to Kentucky like it most likely will lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The EPS looks awesome for the Tennessee Valley with regards to the Wednesday storm. There really should be more talk about this one in here. Even if it inevitably trends to Kentucky like it most likely will lol. I know that is the truth, they got our snow this time around for sure, I am ready for Spring actually! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The EPS looks awesome for the Tennessee Valley with regards to the Wednesday storm. There really should be more talk about this one in here. Even if it inevitably trends to Kentucky like it most likely will lol. Yeah, I agree. I like where the models are as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I didn't even know there was a Wednesday storm until tonight. The NAM looks good, the GFS is totally dry. That being said, the inevitable north trend can only help the southern valley with this setup. I've been stuck too close to the southern edge of the last 2 systems. SREF mean for KCHA is up to 4 inches (about where it was for last Monday's storm right before the bottom dropped out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Todd Howell is having a hard time containing his excitement about the Wednesday storm. He's being very sheepish but grinning like a jackass with a mouthful of bumblebees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnmetalhead Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Tonight's possible light snowfall event kind of snuck up on me to be honest. Snippet from MRX AFD: SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO HOWSTRONG JET DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPSOVER THE AREA. NAM IS THE STRONGEST. SOUNDINGS SHOW VERTICALPROFILE DEFINITELY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW REGION-WIDE.WENT WITH A BLEND SOLUTION...BUT FAVORING SREF...WHICH SHOWS LIGHTSNOWFALL FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE MOST SIGNFICANTACCUMULATIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWESTNORTH CAROLINA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED THEREWITH 1 INCH POSSIBLE AT TYS AND CHA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGHTO WARRANT ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. BEST TO WAITFOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODELS TO MAKE CALL ON ADVISORY. WILLHIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.Current SREF means through tomorrowCHA: 1.48TYS: 1.36TRI: 0.88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The higher elevations got more freezing rain around here this morning. Made for some slick roads. Wasn't cold enough in the valley. 34 IMBY this morning. I haven't ever seen snow develop on models as it is being shown for tonight. It looks like it would be affected by severe down sloing since the precip would come out of the East (very odd). I continue to be encouraged for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 now this is about as good as you can hope to see right here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Not sure what's cooking on the Euro, but the GFS and NAM are marching the mid-week system north. I am almost positive the area sees precip out of it at this point, but not sure if it'll be rain or snow. 24 hours ago GFS first, second image is the current GFS for the same frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 6z NAM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The Ukie and Euro are both a little south for the Wednesday storm but it wouldn't take much of a jog north for the valley to be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 6z NAM snow: some of that snow accumulation in the mountains of NC and TN is from a little system late tonight and through the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z NAM, all of that is for the midweek system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Watch this be the one storm for our region of the country this year that doesn't move NW... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Watch this be the one storm for our region of the country this year that doesn't move NW... LOL Walking dead scenario for Atlanta if it doesn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I honestly don't think it needs to move much north at all, At least from where it's sitting on the GFS. I just think it's once again severely under performing on the precip shield that a 1004 LP sitting in the northern GOM would prouduce. The big snow in February of last year had a 1004 LP sitting in almost the same exact spot as the 6z GFS and the precip shield was up to 64 in Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Walking dead scenario for Atlanta if it doesn't! HA HA for sure!!! 5-8" definitely apocalyptic for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The hi-res nam only goes out to hour 60 so it's map doesn't reflect the totals for the event yet. But here is another view of the regular 12z nam snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I honestly don't think it needs to move much north at all, At least from where it's sitting on the GFS. I just think it's once again severely under performing on the precip shield that a 1004 LP sitting in the northern GOM would prouduce. The big snow in February of last year had a 1004 LP sitting in almost the same exact spot as the 6z GFS and the precip shield was up to 64 in Kentucky. Good point, we've seen it time and time again. Would be cool for everyone to get snow this time, for you and folks up in TRI area to add to their totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Heck, the NAM is even better on it's 12z track. 1003-1004 moving from New Orleans, to Panama to between Lake City Florida and Valdosta Ga. I don't see how we avoid heavy precip from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's the hi-res 12z NAM p-type accum map through hour 60 (the event isn't over at that point): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 No two will be exactly the same, but Feb 14 snow has a 1012 LP in the same spot as this and the Eastern 2/3rds of Tennessee was under the precip shield at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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