Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 12z GGEM is flirting with a big dog at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can only see 12 hr increments on the PSU site for the 12z Euro. But it seemed it really wanted to send multiple overrunning events next week across TN beginning Monday. However, I can't see qpf...just RH. But that pattern is one that would dump a heckuva a lot of snow over the Valley if it verified. For those w/ better maps, what do you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 looks to surpressed,not much over running..ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That HP need be further up N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can only see 12 hr increments on the PSU site for the 12z Euro. But it seemed it really wanted to send multiple overrunning events next week across TN beginning Monday. However, I can't see qpf...just RH. But that pattern is one that would dump a heckuva a lot of snow over the Valley if it verified. For those w/ better maps, what do you see? It never really gets its act together but you can tell it's not far off. Something could easily develop from that pattern in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 That HP need be further up N Exactly where we want it. Everything, I mean everything, has moved north this winter. We want it waaaay down there for a good overrunning event. Looks very good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 It never really gets its act together but you can tell it's not far off. Something could easily develop from that pattern in future runs. Combine it w/ the GFS and I think it just doesn't have those events in focus yet. But the pattern looks good. I will take a good looking pattern over an individual storm at this point. The storms will be there most times IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can only see 12 hr increments on the PSU site for the 12z Euro. But it seemed it really wanted to send multiple overrunning events next week across TN beginning Monday. However, I can't see qpf...just RH. But that pattern is one that would dump a heckuva a lot of snow over the Valley if it verified. For those w/ better maps, what do you see? Yeah there looks to be a lot of waves moving through the southern stream on the Euro but most of them are suppressed weak. There are no cutters at all over this weekend storm. One wave is hot on the heels of the weekend storm on Monday but it is suppressed and the moisture is only in Texas/Louisiana/Arkansas. Then on Tuesday a light wave gives some light snow to the valley. Then it blows up into a 977 mb nor'easter the pummels Boston again. Our big dog in the long range is there but is suppressed. It seems like anyone of these waves could end up being a bigger deal for us. I didn't see any cutters and most of the low pressure tracks were weak and along the gulf coast. So, I think we are in a good position right now. I'd rather have a suppressed track right now instead of a cutter. It is really a zonal look. There is continuous energy in the west but it is strung out and none of it really amplifies on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Exactly where we want it. Everything, I mean everything, has moved north this winter. We want it waaaay down there for a good overrunning event. Looks very good to me. The massive LP by Maine didn't help out either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Yeah there looks to be a lot of waves moving through the southern stream on the Euro but most of them are suppressed weak. There are no cutters at all over this weekend storm. One wave is hot on the heels of the weekend storm on Monday but it is suppressed and the moisture is only in Texas/Louisiana/Arkansas. Then on Tuesday a light wave gives some light snow to the valley. Then it blows up into a 977 mb nor'easter the pummels Boston again. Our big dog in the long range is there but is suppressed. It seems like anyone of these waves could end up being a bigger deal for us. I didn't see any cutters and most of the low pressure tracks were weak and along the gulf coast. So, I think we are in a good position right now. I'd rather have a suppressed track right now instead of a cutter. It is really a zonal look. There is continuous energy in the west but it is strung out and none of it really amplifies on that run. Not so much zonal, but an elongated trough which is usually money for overrunning in the Valley. The southern jet has more energy in it now...better than the anemic look it had, but not as good as it could be. The cold centered of the GL is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Seeing quite a few big dogs in the 12z euro ensemble members across the TN Valley later in the 10 to 15 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Seeing quite a few big dogs in the 12z euro ensemble members across the TN Valley later in the 10 to 15 day period. Like?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Like?.... Like 14 members out of 51 giving Nashville 6+ with 3 showing 10+ and 1 showing 20+. Just a signal that something could happen in the next week or two. The ensembles were not showing this kind of stuff in January or early February. You can't take it to the bank by any means but when the eps perks up it's wise to be alert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Like 14 members out of 51 giving Nashville 6+ with 3 showing 10+ and 1 showing 20+. Just a signal that something could happen in the next week or two. The ensembles were not showing this kind of stuff in January or early February. You can't take it to the bank by any means but when the eps perks up it's wise to be alert. Sounds nice! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 0z Euro looks great on potential alone. Throw in the 300 mile northward jog component...and it looks even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The Euro has multiple light overunning events all the way out to 180, which is as far as I could see. By light, I mean 1-3 inch type snows with maybe more in some areas. Or so it appears on the rather less than great maps I have access to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS continues it's parade of Gulf lows for the next 10-15 days. We'll manage to cash in at least one more time I suspect, maybe more than one more time. The Euro is more suppressed but frigid. After Sunday I'm not sure it has us above freezing again all next week. It throws some -15 to -20c down into the region at 2m, which is 5 to -5. Which is why it's more suppressed than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Maybe it's right where we want it.I ran some text from a few stations and saw no snow after this system off the Euro other than maybe a .01 or .02.The last weeklies still are hanging in there the first week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'd always rather have LP leaving Texas portrayed S of the area than N of it. I'm not sure I buy how close together some storms are shown but there are good signs that the pattern stays stormy and the storm track is across the South with cold over our area. At one point the GFS has us getting snow from a Coastal storm, that switches to rain because another storm is in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 18 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 24 hours later....a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Earlier today something happened that I have never seen before here. My NWS 7 day forecast had snow mentioned every single day all the way through next week. Chances were low, and the high temps would only support rain, but it really speaks to the power of the pattern we are in right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Weeklies keep us going into wk.1 of March,winter isn't done yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Winter got off to a slow start, but what a week. I've had 12 inches of snow/sleet and 3/4ths inch of ice plus double digit below 0 temps and a high under 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The big storm at the end of the next week is still there, it's suppressed south and east right now a bit, but it's working it's way back towards our region from the gulf coast crusher it had been, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Jamstec is going crazy with an ElNino into next winter We could be looking at a active severe season coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Knoxville South Light snow tonight?? MRX: THE GULFCOAST SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING LIGHT QPF FOR MAINLY SRN 1/3TO 1/2 OF E TN AND SW NC COUNTIES. LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MOS POPSFOR TONIGHT WITH PCPN TYPE MOSTLY LIKELY TO BE LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IF MIN TEMPS FALL BELOW 32 DEGS. MOREON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 30% chances or better... Need to keep an eye on this for northward shift or higher qpf, could be an additional surprise on top of snow we still have. Zones: TNZ036-067>069-071-222130-ANDERSON-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...MARYVILLE1022 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015.REST OF TODAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY...THEN A SLIGHTCHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT..TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL EARLYMORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THEMID TO UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. ------------------------------------------------------ TNZ083>086-099>101-222130-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON1022 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2015 .REST OF TODAY...CLOUDY. PATCHY DRIZZLE EARLY...THEN A CHANCE OFRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS10 MPH OR LESS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT..TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL EARLY MORNING. A CHANCEOF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAINEARLY IN THE MORNING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12Z GFS H18, though it looks like moisture falls apart after H18. Still wonder though if models aren't accurately depicting QPF, as morristown eluded to differences in pops between models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 12Z GFS H18, though it looks like moisture falls apart after H18. Still wonder though if models aren't accurately depicting QPF, as morristown eluded to differences in pops between models. If the short range models miss on this...that is awful. But yes, it certainly looks more robust to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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