Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Anyone have any updates for the 12z model suites for Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 MRX AFD was interesting. They will be issuing a watch for the area stating a lot of uncertainty but felt the need to issue one with what is on the ground now combining with what could fall. They made it clear that they didn't think everyone would achieve the criteria, but felt it necessary to Issue the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 258 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015 ...............:THE MAJOR QUESTION THAT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AT THIS POINT IS WHEN/WHAT/HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW/ICE/FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THINK THAT PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY STAND A BETTER CHANCE TO SEE MORE PROLONGED PERIODS OF ICY WEATHER, WHILE PLACES ALONG THE PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS/NORTHERN VALLEY WOULD SEE MORE SNOW AND A QUICKER TRANSITION TO RAIN ON SATURDAY. AGAIN, THIS IS ALL STILL UP IN THE AIR AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS RELATIVELY POOR, BUT STILL THINK THAT REGARDLESS IF IT IS SNOW OR ICE THAT FALLS THAT IT COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE MORE POWER OUTAGES. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AND WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE WE`RE NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA (FOR SNOW OR ICE) WE STILL THINK THAT ISSUES WILL ARISE SINCE MOST OF THE SNOW/ICE ON THE GROUND RIGHT NOW WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO MELT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE HEAVIEST OF THE PRECIP. ALSO THINK THAT FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND RAIN FALLS ON SNOW, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THAT. AFTER THAT A FEW RIPPLES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA LEADING TO SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the storm for the 27th timeframe is still there. Beautiful display of an active southern stream and a very cold late season high on the 12z GFS. A high-impact winter event is still possible late next week from the southern Plains to the eastern seaboard, but uncertainty is too high to depict a hazard at this time. From Hazards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 A high-impact winter event is still possible late next week from the southern Plains to the eastern seaboard, but uncertainty is too high to depict a hazard at this time. From Hazards http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php#haz_discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Euro control for the win!!!! Widespread 8-12 inch storm for the whole southeast next week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aeasberry21 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Winter storm watch issued by ohx for Friday- early Saturday! Safe to say winter is here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN254 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST THROUGH 6PM...DANGEROUSWIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND ANOTHER WINTER STORM FORFRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT... .LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH6PM...BUT COULD LEAD TO MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OVER HIGHERELEVATIONS IN EASTERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FURTHER...THE COLDEST AIROF THE SEASON WILL USHER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.WINDS TONIGHT COMBINED WITH BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOWZERO WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -15 TONIGHT INTO MIDDAYTHURSDAY. YET ANOTHER WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MIDDLE TENNESSEE ONFRIDAY...WITH SNOW...SLEET AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE INTOFRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN SATURDAY. TNZ005>008-023>028-056>063-075-077-093>095-190600-/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.150220T1800Z-150221T1800Z//O.CON.KOHX.WC.Y.0003.150219T0000Z-150219T1800Z/STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI254 PM CST WED FEB 18 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENINGTO NOON CST THURSDAY......WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING. * WIND CHILL ADVISORY IMPACTS...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP DOWN TO AS LOW AS -15 AT TIMES FROM 6PM TONIGHT THROUGH NOON THURSDAY. * WINTER STORM WATCH TIMING...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AT NOON UNTIL SATURDAY AT NOON. * MAIN WINTER STORM IMPACT...A MIX OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...SLEET AND ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN MIDDAY SATURDAY. * OTHER IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL REMAIN TREACHEROUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...USE EXTREME CAUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 18Z GFS Clown for weekend storm. Though h84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 From Todd Howell : Todd Howell @10weather 1m1 minute ago 5pm, 2"-3", then frzg rainRT @music7980: @10weather projected arrival time of snow Friday, and possible amounts before changeover Saturday? 0 replies 0 retweets 0 favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Models seem to poorly handle warming. They warm it to slow at upper levels and too fast at lower levels in my experience. I wouldn't be surprised to see a quicker change to sleet and freezing rain but a longer change to rain. Especially with a few inches of basically solid ice for it to fall into. I'd guess 1-3 inches for most of the entire Tennessee Valley and .1 to .25 ice for a whole lot of the areas, especially east of the Plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the Fri-Sat WSW is only for the mid and lower part of the Valley. Maybe because of ice? I didn't see them state regions in their evening update. But, definitely not their for my point and click. Either way, I think a mixed bag for everyone. Ice to the south. Snow to the north. Then rain. Next week looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Looks like the Fri-Sat WSW is only for the mid and lower part of the Valley. Maybe because of ice? I didn't see them state regions in their evening update. But, definitely not their for my point and click. Either way, I think a mixed bag for everyone. Ice to the south. Snow to the north. Then rain. Next week looks good. Probably due to timing also. Southern and central valleys are now within the 48 hour window for a watch, Tri would be a bit longer before onset considering precip moving in from WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE Those are the counties listed in mine. Though I'm normally in with Scott, Morgan and Claiborne. Claiborne may not be in a watch or it may be at a different time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It appears that the entire state except for the NE sections, as well as Arkansas, N Miss, N. Alabama are all under a winter storm watch from Friday morning until Saturday afternoon. I can't explain why NE Tennessee didn't get in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 It appears that the entire state except for the NE sections, as well as Arkansas, N Miss, N. Alabama are all under a winter storm watch from Friday morning until Saturday afternoon. I can't explain why NE Tennessee didn't get in on it. I wonder if it is just that we get less precip before it switches. Some models do show that. I wish they would have explained that on their comments. Other than that, it really doesn't change anything. The threat is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 RGEM is just coming into range of the system. .2 - .3 qpf as snow for Western Valley areas through 1 pm Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 reading tri's disco they said they were putting up a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Robert's latest on FB . . . https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth/posts/1004739906222731 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Honestly a little surprised to see a watch from MRX already. I figured they would at least wait until the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Honestly a little surprised to see a watch from MRX already. I figured they would at least wait until the morning. I thought that was strange also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Enjoyed the read from Robert. It shows that there's a variety of ways to get severe winter weather here and what drives it to some extent. Mainly, the last two winters have proven that we get extreme cold with a big Pacific ridge. 2009-11 showed that we can get a lot of snow with a -NAO/-AO, Then you have times like 1985 and 1996 for instance, where you get both and you have both extreme cold and high seasonal snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well since we have the WSW out for much of the central and eastern Valley now, should we go ahead a make a 20th-21st dedicated event thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Well since we have the WSW out for much of the central and eastern Valley now, should we go ahead a make a 20th-21st dedicated event thread? do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The NW trend has begun on Snowzilla 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 GFS precip that falls as snow between 120-240....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Canadian isn't that far off from the GFS. If this stuff comes to pass, this will join 1960, maybe not for total snowfall but for a winter that went bang in February after being a dud for a long stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This may belong in banter, and if so someone can move it, but the forecast high for today by MRX for my zone is 9-12 degrees! That's right 9-12! Until last year, we struggled to hit those numbers for low temps in winter. This air mass in late February is astounding to me. Just imagine what it would be like if it were January 10th or so! Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 0z Euro ensemble mean shows quite a bit of frozen precip throughout the next 15 days, 6+ inches for much of TN. The control run is even more and has it going into the deep south. Most Individual members are lit up, showing multiple chances through the period. The 0z Ukie lays down a decent swath on the backside of the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 The 0z Euro ensemble mean shows quite a bit of frozen precip throughout the next 15 days, 6+ inches for much of TN. The control run is even more and has it going into the deep south. Most Individual members are lit up, showing multiple chances through the period. The 0z Ukie lays down a decent swath on the backside of the weekend system. GFS lost everything didnt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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