Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 your verticals are good at tri until 12z Sat,downhill from there And until that energy is sampled well, there could be some surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 And until that energy is sampled well, there could be some surprises. don't really know,how fast the cold air pulls out as well,especially you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 don't really know,how fast the cold air pulls out as well,especially you guys For all we know the system could slide under the high and go Miller A. I don't think that will happen...but right now the LR models are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 My experience with clippers bringing this type of cold is that they jog north and under do amounts, even in the valley. In 1985, we had clippers just repetitively hammer TRI along an Arctic front. FWIW, the HIRES does look dry but a smoothed map may be more accurate. Usually SE KY grabs Kingsport's moisture, but I bet JC gets 2+". These deals always have surprises. That's with a 10:1 ratio. This will be closer to 20:1. So essentially double those amounts and there will be areas of heavier snow if you get under a squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Looking at the 3 hr panels on the Euro, looks like at least .15 snow and .2 ice falls over Eastern Tennessee, maybe more. Easier to tell with text outputs since I think it's showing 6 hour precip with 3 hour temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 That's with a 10:1 ratio. This will be closer to 20:1. So essentially double those amounts and there will be areas of heavier snow if you get under a squall. I usually get a standard dusting from most clippers in my neck of the woods, I'm wondering with the cold and high ratios, I might be able to double that to a half inch! An inch for me would be a clipper blizzard, though I have had an inch from clippers before when I've gotten under a strong band, and i really get plateau shadow, being i'm like 7 or 8 miles east of the plateau as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Next week appears to have another arctic blast in store on both the GFS and ECMWF. There are hints of gulf coast low riding up into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Earl Barker's map with closer ratios. Not sure if they try and depict exact ratios or not. Also, this is very general in these situations. A snow band sets up over you and you can go way over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I usually get a standard dusting from most clippers in my neck of the woods, I'm wondering with the cold and high ratios, I might be able to double that to a half inch! An inch for me would be a clipper blizzard, though I have had an inch from clippers before when I've gotten under a strong band, and i really get plateau shadow, being i'm like 7 or 8 miles east of the plateau as the crow flies. It's weird and maybe I'm just remembering the clippers that Carver references, but when Margie Ison used to say a clipper was coming, I could pencil in 2-4 inches, sometimes more. The most I've ever gotten from a clipper was 9 inches but that included upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Are u thinking mostly ice? I think a quick thump of snow followed by ice. I bet the Euro is too fast at warming the lower levels and not fast enough at the upper levels of the atmosphere. Yes that seems reasonable, especially the initial snow up your way Friday night. I could see ice holding onto the Tri Cities through much of Saturday before finally going rain Saturday night. As for the day 8-9 discussion, looks like models are struggling with a southern stream system next Wed/Thu. Solutions vary from Deep South snow to Mid South rain. One has to lean toward the southern solutions trending north. A cynic could forecast rain in the Valley, but it is too far out except for Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Are any of you all getting flurries and snow showers today? I had a little flizzard a few minutes ago that put down a little dusting on my ice. I'm assuming left over trapped low level moisture that is getting lifted a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It's sunny here. Has been for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 WWAs issued for northern AR for our little clipper... Don't see that often, that makes the trajectory seem odd to me for most clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yes that seems reasonable, especially the initial snow up your way Friday night. I could see ice holding onto the Tri Cities through much of Saturday before finally going rain Saturday night. As for the day 8-9 discussion, looks like models are struggling with a southern stream system next Wed/Thu. Solutions vary from Deep South snow to Mid South rain. One has to lean toward the southern solutions trending north. A cynic could forecast rain in the Valley, but it is too far out except for Chattanooga. Next week...the 12z Euro/GFS look cold with maybe a couple of events sliding through. But right, still a ways out. I know you know this, but once a cold pattern breaks down a big storm will often end it. I wonder if that happens somewhere on the East coast. Of course both models could be too quick in breaking the cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe someone else can explain these features to me. The red circle, is quite obviously our clipper (looks Juicy), is the purple circle just the back side of our trough, and the green circle left over low level gulf moisture that appears to be advecting NE into the dry air. Could these 3 features interact for a stronger clipper? Seems a lot of moisture all around the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Maybe someone else can explain these features to me. The red circle, is quite obviously our clipper (looks Juicy), is the purple circle just the back side of our trough, and the green circle left over low level gulf moisture that appears to be advecting NE into the dry air. Could these 3 features interact for a stronger clipper? Seems a lot of moisture all around the region. weak short wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Party on the Great Plans! Manhattan KS reported heavy snow last hour. Kansas wave is the main one, forecast to slide through Kentucky to Virginia. Little lobe farther south may shear out slightly, but NAM has a weak reflection at 700/500 mb going all the way to the Carolinas. NAM already pushed up qpf slightly from KY through WV/VA into NC, so I think it sees the features. NAM also improves 850 mb over Mid South to Carolinas. Instead of neutral or CAA, now some 850 stream lines are very slightly WAA over the region. Still better KY/VA. That southern lobe is the only hope for Tennessee; otherwise, northern wave is just that - north of Tenn. Kentucky, WV/VA, and North Carolina high country may over achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 As for the day 8-9 discussion, looks like models are struggling with a southern stream system next Wed/Thu. Solutions vary from Deep South snow to Mid South rain. One has to lean toward the southern solutions trending north. A cynic could forecast rain in the Valley, but it is too far out except for Chattanooga. lol... I see what you did there. It's sunny here. Has been for a while. The cloud deck has thinned at times allowing the sunlight to increase, but it hasn't broken up enough to see blue. I was hoping for a little sunshine before dark. Gloomy grey with light flurries right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The Euro control shows the "potential" for next week nicely and the euro mean just continues to grow, pretty much through the end of the run. I have never seen so many crazy runs of the euro control and individual eps members. The pattern looks to be "ripe" next week, but just because it's ripe doesn't mean we score. Ask our Chattanooga friends about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Party on the Great Plans! Manhattan KS reported heavy snow last hour. Kansas wave is the main one, forecast to slide through Kentucky to Virginia. Little lobe farther south may shear out slightly, but NAM has a weak reflection at 700/500 mb going all the way to the Carolinas. NAM already pushed up qpf slightly from KY through WV/VA into NC, so I think it sees the features. NAM also improves 850 mb over Mid South to Carolinas. Instead of neutral or CAA, now some 850 stream lines are very slightly WAA over the region. Still better KY/VA. That southern lobe is the only hope for Tennessee; otherwise, northern wave is just that - north of Tenn. Kentucky, WV/VA, and North Carolina high country may over achieve. Thank you jeff. Seemed awfully active out that way than the standard clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 MRX just issued WWA for all of east TN for the coming clipper, but I guess also because of the winds coming that could take out weak ice coated trees... I'm not looking forward to more trees down and more power outages... ...LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WITHDANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC TO FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT....AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ONWEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRETENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. ACCUMULATIONSWILL BE LIGHT IN THE VALLEY...AND GENERALLY AROUND 1 INCH IN MOSTLOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE STILL ICY ROAD CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITHTHIS LIGHT SNOW COULD RESULT IN CONTINUED DANGEROUS TRAVELCONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDSCOULD STRESS ICE COATED TREES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MOREDAMAGE...OR POWER OUTAGES.ADDITIONAL HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAINOF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE EAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS...WHERE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. THEN THURSDAY NIGHT...THEBITTER COLD AIR AND STILL BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUSLY LOWAND LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...PLATEAU ANDNORTHERN VALLEY.NCZ060-061-TNZ018-041-043-045-047-072-074-087-102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-181200-/O.NEW.KMRX.WW.Y.0008.150218T1200Z-150219T1200Z//O.NEW.KMRX.WC.A.0002.150219T0000Z-150219T1500Z/CHEROKEE-CLAY-JOHNSON-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI-SOUTHEAST CARTER-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...MOUNTAIN CITY...COSBY...CEDAR CREEK...ERWIN...ROAN MOUNTAIN...CADES COVE...GATLINBURG...COKER CREEK...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON327 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AMEST THURSDAY......WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAYTO 7 AM EST THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THISWIND CHILL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING.* EVENT...SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THEEAST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS DURINGTHE DAY COULD ALSO STRESS ICE COATED TREES AND UTILITY POLES.BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHWEST WINDS TOCREATE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 25 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZEROWEDNESDAY NIGHT.* TIMING...SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ANDTHE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURINGTHE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILLINCREASE DURING THE DAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THEEVENING. THE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BEGINWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY RESULT HAZARDOUS TRAVELCONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS. GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYCOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND TREE DAMAGE IN AREASTHAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION ON MONDAY. DANGEROUSLYLOW WIND CHILLS CAN RESULT IN FROSTBITE...HYPOTHERMIA...AND EVENDEATH IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm definitely concerned about the wind here. Had little periods of sunshine but not enough to help the trees, they are still sagging. 25 mph gusts will likely result in more power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm definitely concerned about the wind here. Had little periods of sunshine but not enough to help the trees, they are still sagging. 25 mph gusts will likely result in more power outages. Yep I'm almost assured it will be out for me tomorrow. I can't see it not. So many down with no wind, the county took care of those that were down, but for every one that was downed there were 2 more that were dangerously leaning or sagging over the road and power lines. All I heard last night was pop and crack, sure I'm going to hear it tomorrow even more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 so pumped about this weekend! telling all my friends about the incoming snow... (sigh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I'm not expecting too much from this clipper type system. I always get down sloped pretty good. Technically this is the second wave of the storm we just had. This is the back side of the huge trough that has been working its way east. About 5 days ago models were having trouble emphasizing this wave or the 1st one. Turned out that the 1st wave was the strongest and the most dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory issued for north AL: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/ Local mets are already talking about the possibility of snow or more likely, ice on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 2m temps for the Friday-Sunday AM system struggle to reach freezing, especially east. Looks like maybe 5-8 hrs of the event may be freezing rainf with a front end burst of snow. The NE portion of the Valley will be especially at risk. If you look at 850 temps...no problem. Appears the NAM is slower than the GFS in pushing out the cold air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 For the Friday system, I am curious as to why this is different from the last system. Obviously the placement of the low is cutting to the west, but from what I can tell we have the same dynamics taking place. In the last storm was saw micro-climates of the Tennessee Valley did not warm as the models had previously suggested. The placement of this low pressure will generate more WAA but our low temperatures should also be lower then the last system (last systems forecasted low busted big time for me, I stayed at 22 vs a forecasted low of 12 degrees). So why can't precip rates keep temps from rising above freezing at the surface this time around? Trying to learn here a little, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The system yesterday had a low that went to our south and we still had a lot of WAA. With the low lifting into Kentucky it all but guarantees we warm, even more so than the system yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The system yesterday had a low that went to our south and we still had a lot of WAA. With the low lifting into Kentucky it all but guarantees we warm, even more so than the system yesterday. Would it make difference if our low temps started in the mid-teens vs last time's low temps? Or is it case of this just being to powerful a low pressure placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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