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Fabulous February Arctic Outbreak


DaculaWeather

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The threat for this weekend is pretty low IMO.  There is just nothing to hold the cold in long enough.  I think that will become more and more evident as we get closer to Saturday.  

After going through the ice storm, and the snow showers tomorrow, followed by bitter cold temperatures, I am not sure many on here won't welcome a warm up and even a chance at rain by this weekend.

 

Depends on the speed.  If it slows down, it is rain and a pretty easy call.  If it speeds up or sends a piece of energy ahead of things...could get dicey.  I think the big events are the clipper set to go tomorrow and the potential event early next week.

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If you all want to make a new thread, won't hurt my feelings at all.  Just was trying to make it easier on the folks managing all of this.  Honestly, the separate threads make it easier to find the events several years later for reference.  I don't have to dig through a massive thread to find the event.  So hey, go for it.  I am good either way. 

Nah, I think if maybe Steve will just alter the thread title at some point to perhaps include the specific time periods it will suffice.  Is that reasonable?

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I say stay with this one.

 

 

This winter, just an inch or two is a big event... :lol:

 

 

So true, man.  So true.  I guess all winters are relative.  And a clipper on an Arctic boundary is a rare bird for here, relatively speaking.  1985 saw some powerhouse clippers.  NWS would advertise 30% snow, and we would get 5".  Just never know.  Snow falling on snow makes for better results obviously.

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Nah, I think if maybe Steve will just alter the thread title at some point to perhaps include the specific time periods it will suffice.  Is that reasonable?

 

Sounds good.  Just embed the smaller events here.  Definitely go w/ a new thread for big events.  It was nice having a separate thread for this past one. 

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Depends on the speed.  If it slows down, it is rain and a pretty easy call.  If it speeds up or sends a piece of energy ahead of things...could get dicey.  I think the big events are the clipper set to go tomorrow and the potential event early next week.

Yeah, that clipper looks stout on models.  With lingering ice, the clipper being minor but on top of iced tress and road could continue to keep things terrible around here.  MRX saying up to an inch in the valley from the clipper.  

 

Then this weekend...  GFS models about 12 to 15 hours of frozen precip in East Tennessee before going over to rain.  That is a big enough event to me to take serious, again especially considering what we have now may not be gone by then even with the cold stuck around.

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Yeah, that clipper looks stout on models.  With lingering ice, the clipper being minor but on top of iced tress and road could continue to keep things terrible around here.  MRX saying up to an inch in the valley from the clipper.  

 

Then this weekend...  GFS models about 12 to 15 hours of frozen precip in East Tennessee before going over to rain.  That is a big enough event to me to take serious, again especially considering what we have now may not be gone by then even with the cold stuck around.

Two serious ice events within 5 days of each other, and a clipper and bitter cold sandwiched in between with a lot of wind might be a very big problem.

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MRX mentions the threat of wind w/ the clipper.  I bet this clipper drops slightly more than an 1".  And remember, most clipper precip on modes jogs north until the event.  I think NE TN gets 1-2".  JC might squeak out a bit more than that w/ lift. 

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1027 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A CHILLY NORTHWEST WIND HAS HELPED TO REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
AREAWIDE THIS MORNING. A VERY HIGH SNOWPACK IS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...WHICH WILL HELP
TO CUT DOWN ON HIGHS UP THERE...DESPITE SOME PEEKS OF SUN BY THE
AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST /WHERE SIGNIFICANT ICING
OCCURRED ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU/ THE
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO REINFORCE ANY ICE/LIGHT SNOW
PACK ON ROADS...AND MAINTAIN THE VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON
UNTREATED SURFACES. ADDITIONALLY...THE ICE ACCUMULATION ON TREES
/COMBINED WITH A LIGHT...BUT CONSISTENT NW WIND/...COULD RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE/POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE GREATEST IMPACTED
AREAS.
SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT
OTHERWISE THINK THAT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

&&

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It's going to be an odd setup this weekend with this storm.  Seems as though most models have a switch over Saturday (for TRI) to eventually rain.  I'll be really interested to see how low temps get Friday morning and how long the snowpack will chill temps before the switchover.

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What are the chances that Nashville could FINALLY break their 1" mark this weekend, and then have it washed away with rain before anyone gets a chance to celebrate it?

Not impressed wit the qpfs on the clipper today.If it happens this weekend it would be Friday,before it changes over to ice then the flood gates open :raining:

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This is from former long-time WJHL met Rob Williams, regarding this weekend's threat:

 

Details on the ICE STORM that no one is talking about yet.

You've all probably heard about the sub-zero temperatures for Friday morning...Well, guess what arrives late Friday night or Saturday morning. Not snow, not sleet, but freezing rain...and it could be significant. Unfortunately, the cold air won't be able to move out in time before the next weather system arrives. It won't be cold enough aloft for snow, so as the precipitation falls, it will fall as rain and then freeze on objects. More on this to come. Feel free to share to get the word out for those planning to travel. For those of you that don't follow me yet...LIKE my page for future details on this potential major ice storm.

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Yeah, that clipper looks stout on models.  With lingering ice, the clipper being minor but on top of iced tress and road could continue to keep things terrible around here.  MRX saying up to an inch in the valley from the clipper.  

 

Then this weekend...  GFS models about 12 to 15 hours of frozen precip in East Tennessee before going over to rain.  That is a big enough event to me to take serious, again especially considering what we have now may not be gone by then even with the cold stuck around.

 

I can't imagine our snowpack will degrade much by Saturday.  As you say, the clipper should lay down 1-2 inches which should negate what little melting occurs from the sun.  I think most areas should have a solid snowpack heading into saturday

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This is from former long-time WJHL met Rob Williams, regarding this weekend's threat:

 

Details on the ICE STORM that no one is talking about yet.

You've all probably heard about the sub-zero temperatures for Friday morning...Well, guess what arrives late Friday night or Saturday morning. Not snow, not sleet, but freezing rain...and it could be significant. Unfortunately, the cold air won't be able to move out in time before the next weather system arrives. It won't be cold enough aloft for snow, so as the precipitation falls, it will fall as rain and then freeze on objects. More on this to come. Feel free to share to get the word out for those planning to travel. For those of you that don't follow me yet...LIKE my page for future details on this potential major ice storm.

 

 

Interesting.  Always a possibility....will be tough to get the cold out of the way.  I definitely thought about the possibility.  However, I have seen cold move quickly out of the valley...and then sometimes not.  Euro implies ice for a time.  As evidenced by yesterday, new cold is difficult to erode at ground level.  With everything already cold, would be devastating. 

 

Would be interested on Mr. Bob's take on the threat for icing this weekend...

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Wednesday looks like light snow north half of Tennessee, best on the Plateau through northeast Tennessee. Nashville may be on the edge. Then the Apps should get several hours of NW flow. Kentucky will do well, esp considering ratios. I'm skeptical about Knox to Chatty this setup. Short wave and lift goes north. For those that see any qpf verify, it'll stick immediately with such cold temps/ground. Also ratios are good even into Tenn.

 

Friday and Friday night looks like more ice in the Mid South and perhaps the Valley. Along and north of I-24 may start as snow with a colder profile initially but quickly goto ice with WAA aloft. Bias to warm faster than progged may be canceled out by the cold where ice/snow is in place already. Either way most of that qpf is forecast after surface temps go above freezing on Saturday (Friday night west). Much less ice accretion would likely be easier on the power system, but restoration crews are facing horrible weather from the temps to more precip. Travel conditions and initial extreme cold could make this weekend system memorable enough to start a thread, but still TBD.

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For those wondering around KTRI, the clown map for the Euro will show 4 to 5 inches of snow before a changeover, but this just isn't the case.  It's not a good snow setup where the players are showing on the field ATM.  

 

Per the 12z Euro, about .2 shows as snow, which means ice accretion for the other .2 or .3 probably.   It's likely too far into the future to be specific, but surface temperatures on Saturday morning at 7am around KTRI are in the mid 20's after bottoming our in the mid teens and this is following two extremely cold days with snowpack.  I would not be surprised if we don't work into something that looks like a winter wonderland before we switch completely to rain (which per the Euro would be around lunchtime on Saturday).

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It also appears to me the potential for something next week is still on the table for the 12z euro.  Nice southern vort and plenty of cold up north, with a 1044 high in western Canada.  Looks like a setup where the whole trough could collapse into the east again after a very brief relaxation period. (and of course some rain for many)

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For those wondering around KTRI, the clown map for the Euro will show 4 to 5 inches of snow before a changeover, but this just isn't the case.  It's not a good snow setup where the players are showing on the field ATM.  

 

Per the 12z Euro, about .2 shows as snow, which means ice accretion for the other .2 or .3 probably.   It's likely too far into the future to be specific, but surface temperatures on Saturday morning at 7am around KTRI are in the mid 20's after bottoming our in the mid teens and this is following two extremely cold days with snowpack.  I would not be surprised if we don't work into something that looks like a winter wonderland before we switch completely to rain (which per the Euro would be around lunchtime on Saturday).

Are u thinking mostly ice? I think a quick thump of snow followed by ice. I bet the Euro is too fast at warming the lower levels and not fast enough at the upper levels of the atmosphere.

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Are u thinking mostly ice? I think a quick thump of snow followed by ice. I bet the Euro is too fast at warming the lower levels and not fast enough at the upper levels of the atmosphere.

It will likely be in the mid to upper 20's when it shows .2 falling (kind of hard to tell on 6 hour panels).  Like I said though, it's far enough out that the entire plume of precipitation could shift up into Kentucky and leave us dry until the low got a little closer, and at that time, we'd be warm enough for rain.

Need to keep an eye on it.

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I am struck by how cold the Euro is days 6-10. Next week looks primed for more winter weather. It is February and Mother Nature, as we have just seen and will see, does not like a dry pattern. Teleconnections suggest a very warm pattern, and yet we are experiencing exactly the opposite. The Euro sends repetitive shots of cold air SE.

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I am struck by how cold the Euro is days 6-10. Next week looks primed for more winter weather. It is February and Mother Nature, as we have just seen and will see, does not like a dry pattern. Teleconnections suggest a very warm pattern, and yet we are experiencing exactly the opposite. The Euro sends repetitive shots of cold air SE.

There is a very weak Miller A in the western gulf of Mexico at 192.  If that high wasn't so massive, along with a piece of the polar vortex in the northeast creating major confluence, there would likely be more to that system.  It will change a lot between now and then, but worth keeping an eye on.  

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NAM's depiction of the snow squalls. You can see the streaks of heavier snow from them. JKL mentioned that thunder snow would again be possible. Hi-Res also shows the Plateau snow shadow over the valley.

 

nam4km_asnow_seus_21.png

My experience with clippers bringing this type of cold is that they jog north and under do amounts, even in the valley. In 1985, we had clippers just repetitively hammer TRI along an Arctic front. FWIW, the HIRES does look dry but a smoothed map may be more accurate. Usually SE KY grabs Kingsport's moisture, but I bet JC gets 2+". These deals always have surprises.

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There is a very weak Miller A in the western gulf of Mexico at 192.  If that high wasn't so massive, along with a piece of the polar vortex in the northeast creating major confluence, there would likely be more to that system.  It will change a lot between now and then, but worth keeping an eye on.

I just think how iffy the models handled this last system until it was sampled properly. Bet that is a problem for some time. But the pattern will support a bigger system. Seems like the short term pattern is the weak southern branch trying to attack Arctic air masses along I-40.

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