Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Fair point and my apologies. I was using tap a talk and bouncing from topic to topic and really didn't pay attention to what thread I was posting in. My whole point was that I'm not belieiving models again this year......but agree my comment came across as a resident of the SE Forum. It is cool and I hope you don't mind...I have deleted about 5 posts about pre-busts already....Thanks for your positive response! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I wonder how important having a snow pack will be for this weekend's storm? Seems like whatever snow that falls should still be on the ground by saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Round 2? 0z Euro was pretty cold through ten days. Looks like we "might" have some more things to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GFS is filled with close calls all the way out to 384. Stormy and cold is going to be the rule the rest of the month. Cold enough with the storms will be the eternal question. One this is certain, the ground will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 12z Euro looks good at 168 through end of the run. Elongated trough. Can't see precip. Just looking at pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Hey, how does the Euro look for the clipperish system on Weds? Looked decent on PSU site. But again, limited in nature with 12 hr increments and average graphics, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The cold on the GFS is mind blowing. I guess the snow/ice pack in the area is allowing maximum bottoming out. Even if it's off by 10 degrees is going to be record breaking. If it's right it's advertising close to all time records before warming in advance of the next system starts Thursday night. It's handing out January 1985 cold over my area, and this is after -18 on Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow at the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Wow at the eps Gah, no kiddin. The snow mean and the control are 10+ for most of the TN valley. For the handful of sites I checked, individual members were off the charts for the 15 day period. TYS for example had all members over 6 inches with outliers showing a couple feet. That coupled with what the GFS has been hinting at screams incredible potential over the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I've not even had time to look, but David Aldridge has 27 for the high with either a 60 or 80 percent chance of snow in Knoxville, for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On to the Arctic front Wednesday. Same kind of front dropped 2+ inches in SE KY and SWVA the other day. Mrx said 1-2 possible in my area plus NE TN and SWVA with up to an inch I think in the central valley. These arctic fronts can have very heavy snow squalls. Hope Wednesday manages it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 US Hazards OutlookNWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD300 PM EST February 16 2015 Synopsis: A brutally cold air mass is forecast to impact the eastern half of the U.S. early in the period. Waves of low pressure could move along an eastward-moving cold front from the south-central U.S. to the eastern seaboard. Behind this front, more arctic air is forecast to affect the eastern part of the country by early next week. Areas of surface low pressure are anticipated near the Aleutians and Gulf of Alaska. HazardsMuch below-normal temperatures for much of the eastern half of the U.S., Thu-Fri, Feb 19-20.Much below-normal temperatures for parts of the eastern U.S. from the Carolinas to New England, Sat, Feb 21.Much below-normal temperatures for parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, Sun-Mon, Feb 22-23.Freezing rain is possible from northern Arkansas eastward across parts of the Tennessee Valley, Fri, Feb 20.Significant winter precipitation for parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, extending northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic U.S., Sat, Feb 21.Heavy rain for parts of the southern Tennessee Valley and Arkansas, Sat, Feb 21.A slight risk of much below-normal temperatures extending from the Northeast to the southern Plains, Tue-Sun, Feb 24-Mar 1.A moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures extending from the Northeast to the lower Mississippi Valley, Tue-Fri, Feb 24-27.A high risk of much below-normal temperatures for the Northeast, eastern Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley, Tue-Wed, Feb 24-25.Severe drought for the Central and Southern Great Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, the Pacific Northwest, and Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GFS went Hammertime from the Plateau East on Saturday. Dumps 12 plus over a good portion of East Tennessee that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Front end over running over the arctic airmass in place from a storm that it has cutting the lakes. I'm not sure I've ever saw that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The clown from that run of the period from Thursday-Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GFS went Hammertime from the Plateau East on Saturday. Dumps 12 plus over a good portion of East Tennessee that run. And washes most of it away with a warm nose and rain later. I find this solution hard to believe and would love to see more support for it. However the GFS has been consistent with showing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The GGEM also drops the same hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I don't have the maps, but the Euro also dumped on us. It gets the whole state pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The NAM gives everyone a bit of snow from the Arctic front except a bit of downsloping off the plateau. 1 inch isn't out of the question for a large swath of the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The NAM gives everyone a bit of snow from the Arctic front except a bit of downsloping off the plateau. 1 inch isn't out of the question for a large swath of the Valley. I think we can do a little better than 10:1 ratios, given the cold air already in place. It's nothing but dumb gut instinct, but I'm bullish on the potential this has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does everyone want to role with this thread for the upcoming two events? We have the clipper and brutal cold to follow as well as the weekend threat (though it looks very similar to the one we just came through, except I think it will cut more than shown just looking at h5) It doesn't really matter to me, just thought it might be the thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does everyone want to role with this thread for the upcoming two events? We have the clipper and brutal cold to follow as well as the weekend threat (though it looks very similar to the one we just came through, except I think it will cut more than shown just looking at h5) It doesn't really matter to me, just thought it might be the thing to do. I say go w/ this thread for the clipper and brutal cold. If another big event hits, I say we make a new thread. Just my two cents. But the threat has to be significant to make a new thread...not just something that is an inch or two. The storm threads make it easier to find later if tagged correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I say go w/ this thread for the clipper and brutal cold. If another big event hits, I say we make a new thread. Just my two cents. But the threat has to be significant to make a new thread...not just something that is an inch or two. The storm threads make it easier to find later if tagged correctly. Yeah, my suggestion was based as much (if not more) on the cold air coming as the snow. Getting down to 10 below or colder only happens once every 25-30 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Does everyone want to role with this thread for the upcoming two events? We have the clipper and brutal cold to follow as well as the weekend threat (though it looks very similar to the one we just came through, except I think it will cut more than shown just looking at h5) It doesn't really matter to me, just thought it might be the thing to do. I say stay with this one. I say go w/ this thread for the clipper and brutal cold. If another big event hits, I say we make a new thread. Just my two cents. But the threat has to be significant to make a new thread...not just something that is an inch or two. The storm threads make it easier to find later if tagged correctly. This winter, just an inch or two is a big event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 I say stay with this one. This winter, just an inch or two is a big event... LOL, no doubt. I hope we can have a few surprises with the arctic front. Looks like a pretty good setup, and ratios should help those who get under the heaviest radar returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 LOL, no doubt. I hope we can have a few surprises with the arctic front. Looks like a pretty good setup, and ratios should help those who get under the heaviest radar returns. Agreed. The usual NW flow areas should cash in as well. Interestingly enough, those areas were victimized by downsloping winds and saw their slop totals slashed as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 The threat for this weekend is pretty low IMO. There is just nothing to hold the cold in long enough. I think that will become more and more evident as we get closer to Saturday. After going through the ice storm, and the snow showers tomorrow, followed by bitter cold temperatures, I am not sure many on here won't welcome a warm up and even a chance at rain by this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 If we had any kind of a -NAO going, this period we are going through would probably have been remembered fondly for the rest of our lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Yeah, my suggestion was based as much (if not more) on the cold air coming as the snow. Getting down to 10 below or colder only happens once every 25-30 years. If you all want to make a new thread, won't hurt my feelings at all. Just was trying to make it easier on the folks managing all of this. Honestly, the separate threads make it easier to find the events several years later for reference. I don't have to dig through a massive thread to find the event. So hey, go for it. I am good either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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