Bango Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The table seems pretty well set on the track by the looks of the GFS sliding north...I suppose one could make an argument for the Canadian still being a little south. If you were on the northern fringes prior to the GFS latest runs then you can unclench your ass cheeks imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This is only out to 102, its still snowing lightly with howling north winds at 108 for the eastern 2/3 of the state... Talk about GFS on a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This at 150, after the clipper gets the western half of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Now keep in mind, as that says, it's assuming 10:1 for those maps. This snow could easily be 15 to 1 in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GFS will have this running the apps at 00z. It's shifted 200 miles north in the last 3 runs. So - any guesses where the shifting will stop? Any chance that Middle TN could get more in line for the heavier snow like depicted on the UKMET or the ECMWF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So - any guesses where the shifting will stop? Any chance that Middle TN could get more in line for the heavier snow like depicted on the UKMET or the ECMWF? I still don't trust the GFS. The question will be will the 0Z remain consistent for the GFS, and do the Euro and ukie remain consistent or do we see them all come into a median alignment between them. I suspect over the course of the 0Z and 6Z we will see a lot more agreement.... Agreement on what though is the question. I do wonder though if our northern energy sliding on to North America this afternoon and more sampling occuring since then has brought the GFS around to something at least closer to the Euro albeit much more aggressive, and making a hook up the coast it still is the one that shifted closer to the Euro, which to me gives the Euro more cred. Now if the Euro begins going toward the GFS tonight 0Z or 6Z tomorrow, that will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So - any guesses where the shifting will stop? Any chance that Middle TN could get more in line for the heavier snow like depicted on the UKMET or the ECMWF? Yes. I think the chances are better than 50/50, even though your local guys are scared to give north central TN more than an inch. I guess if it had been 1,450+ days here, I'd be looking at every way possible it wouldn't happen too though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Now keep in mind, as that says, it's assuming 10:1 for those maps. This snow could easily be 15 to 1 in many areas. It won't be any higher than 10:1 (and may actually be lower than that) for the first round. Temps are a lot warmer on the GFS. It actually changes CHA over to rain for a portion of the event. No other model that I'm aware of has temps that warm though. The Euro is obviously much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes. I think the chances are better than 50/50, even though your local guys are scared to give north central TN more than an inch. I guess if it had been 1,450+ days here, I'd be looking at every way possible it wouldn't happen too though, lol. I would not doubt that. As I am sure everyone in this forum knows, this system is different in at least one important way for Middle TN. We usually are able to say, "well, the ground is so warm, it will melt when it falls, or the roads will be fine, it was just up to 50." This wont be the case, whether it is 2" or 6", whatever falls is likely to be around most of the week, which is another unusual thing for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Looks like a storm thread has been created. Seem logical to keep this one open for pattern discussion for February and lock the Winter Pattern Discussion thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Extreme cold is looking almost like a given and multiple waves of snow are looking very possible. There's lots of energy and lots of cold lurking around. The GFS indicated sub zero cold next week and even 10s below zero in the week after with cold all the way through March. The Euro turns us into Maine, with 20-30 inches of snow cover, all this within the next 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 This is just gonzo, but a lot of this potentially falls in the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS still bringing the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yes, that does appear to be -10s in Eastern Tennessee Monday the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The 12z model suite is simply astounding for this time of year much less January...the 12z Canadian shows a January 85 redux AFTER this week and the Euro is not all that far away from it. Simply stunning cold for TN Valley and Southeast unlike anything any of us have witnessed in many many years...Hopefully it will go away...I will have had enough by the end of this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Good lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 The new GFS is actually warm biased too from all I've read about it. It's been showing some -10s both Friday and next Monday. It's gonna be very cold over the snowpack if everything works out as it appears it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Here comes storm 2 on the 20th. GFS bringing the goods with 3-8 inches across a good portion of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 GFS still bringing the Vodka cold. A big fat -18 sitting right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 And after a high in the upper singles and lower 10s Thursday, we repeat on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1100 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2015 VALID 12Z WED FEB 18 2015 - 12Z SUN FEB 22 2015 ...OVERVIEW... IN THE WAKE OF ERN PAC ENERGY STREAMING INTO WRN NOAM THROUGHMIDWEEK...THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE IS FCST TO REBUILD LATE WEEKTHROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS A VERY DEEP AND COLD ERNTROUGH SHOULD DEPART FROM THE EAST TO LEAVE A MORE POSITIVELYTILTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS PATTERNIS CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE CORE OFPOSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES SEEN NEAR THE AK PANHANDLE/BC COAST. THISCYCLE MAINTAINS THE RECENT THEME OF ABOVE AVG CONFIDENCE IN THELARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH DIMINISHEDCONFIDENCE IN DETAILS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THEMEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. ...GUIDANCE EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES... FOR THE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST ON DAY 3 WED...CONSULT THEUPCOMING MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION PMDHMD FOR UPDATED INFO FROMNEWER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE. THE 00Z/06Z GUIDANCE ON WHICH LATESTWPC MEDIUM-RANGE PROGS WERE BASED STILL SHOW A WELL ORGANIZEDSYSTEM LIFTING OFF NEW ENG TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. UPSTREAM THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED NATURE OF ERN PAC ENERGY FLOWINGINTO THE CONUS LEADS TO SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES IN RESOLVING THEASSOC SFC EVOLUTION FROM THE PLAINS EWD. THUS FAR DETERMINISTICMODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING POOR AGREEMENT/RUN TO RUNCONTINUITY...LEADING TO WILDLY VARYING SOLNS FOR SFCEVOLUTION/TIMING AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. FOR THE TIME BEINGCONTINUE TO FAVOR AN ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH TO REFLECT MORECONSISTENT SIMILARITIES IN THE FCST PATTERN UNTIL THE MEDIUM TOSMALLER SCALE DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ACCORDINGLY OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN/TIME SCALES...WPCMEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM BLENDING 06Z GEFSAND 00Z ECMWF/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. ...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST MAY SEE LINGERING SNOWFALL WED BEFORE THEDEPARTURE OF WRN ATLC LOW PRES WHILE ANOTHER COLD SURGE BEHIND ITSHOULD SUPPORT SOME SNOW TO THE LEE OF OPEN GRTLKS AND ON WRNSLOPES OF THE APLCHNS. WITH THIS COLD SURGE EXPECT SOME LOCATIONSOVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS TO SEE AT 2-3 DAYS WITH TEMPS ASEXTREME AS 20-35F BELOW NORMAL DURING WED INTO SAT THAT WOULDCHALLENGE LOCAL RECORD VALUES. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED GULFINFLOW AND EVOLUTION ALOFT TOWARD A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGHSHOULD ENCOURAGE INCREASED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PCPN FROM THES-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VLY SPREAD NEWD TO THE E COAST FRI-SUN. ERNCONUS TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LARGERSCALE PATTERN OFFERS A THREAT FOR WINTERY WEATHER ON THE NRNPORTION OF THE OVERALL PCPN SHIELD IN THE LEAD COLD DOME. THISTHREAT IS QUITE REAL DESPITE SMALLER SCALE DETAIL UNCERTAINTY. THEPATTERN SEEN IN THE PREFERRED ENSEMBLE MEAN CLUSTER SFC/ALOFT BYTHE WEEKEND CAN TEND TO SUPPORT THE FULL RANGE OF WINTRY PCPNTYPES. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SIGNALS THE TN VLY AND SURROUNDING AREASAS HAVING BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE HEAVIEST TOTALS. MEANWHILEUPSTREAM ENERGY ALOFT AND ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF UPSLOPE FLOWSHOULD GENERATE PCPN FROM THE NRN PAC NW SEWD THROUGH THENRN-CNTRL ROCKIES. MOST OF THE WEST SHOULD SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPSWITH GREATEST ANOMALIES OF PLUS 10-20F LIKELY CNTRD OVER THE GRTBASIN WED-FRI. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 This is historic cold for the entire Valley if this verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 15, 2015 Share Posted February 15, 2015 Since it is snow driven and needs ideal conditions, we will have to wait for the storm results first. It looks a little overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 looks really interesting towards next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 After this debacle.....I'm not holding my breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 The GGEM is absolutely unbelievable to put it lightly. It is just a never ended onslaught of overrunning precip. By the end of the run 9 inches of QPF has fallen. I'm not sure how much would be which precip type but here the clown which looks unreal. GFS clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Models are holding steady with temps thursday morn,0Z euro run was down to -10F,GFS even colder..NWS BNA now has us at -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 After this debacle.....I'm not holding my breath I am going to use this as an example...This is exactly the type of post that gets deleted immediately and warnings and restrictions of posting privileges will follow for repeat bahvior. If you want to whine about a bust before the storm happens you can go to the banter topic....preferrably in the SE forum banter but here is fine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 16, 2015 Author Share Posted February 16, 2015 I am going to use this as an example...This is exactly the type of post that gets deleted immediately and warnings and restrictions of posting privileges will follow for repeat bahvior. If you want to whine about a bust before the storm happens you can go to the banter topic....preferrably in the SE forum banter but here is fine too. LOL!!!!! Love it. :-) We busted on temps here this morning, I was about 6 degrees above forecast, and when you're marginal to start with, that's never a good sign. My dew points are rising and at 12 degrees now and looks like a wet bulb of 26.6 F. I just hope enough of a CAD signature starts showing up to do any good for me here in Gwinnett county on the NE side of Atlanta. Hope is all I've got now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Fair point and my apologies. I was using tap a talk and bouncing from topic to topic and really didn't pay attention to what thread I was posting in. My whole point was that I'm not belieiving models again this year......but agree my comment came across as a resident of the SE Forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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