Fabulous February Arctic Outbreak

[tnweathernut]

Model Wars that won't soon be settled on the 12z, -18 at 850 showing on the Euro which blasts the entire are with arctic air, but leaves the energy spinning in the southwest. GGEM brings it out and cuts it, GFS less so with more cold air around.

Moral of the story, LONG way to go.

Heck the models about face with regards to the clipper bomb means the difference between not much and FEET of snow happened within 72 hours of game time.

Crazy, just crazy to think our period will be settled any time soon. But also crazy to think the setup won't provide opportunities. It has TONS of potential.

[Stovepipe]

The good news is the 12z Euro finally released that SW energy at the end of run.  The bad news is it made a b-line to Cuba lol.

[jaxjagman]

 

Different synopsis which should be expected this far out,but  by looks everyone punts the system from the SW.A few have a nice look also

[jaxjagman]

 

There is even some better hitters this afternoon

[jaxjagman]

The first part of the 6 - 10 day period will likely be a "setting the table" phase, with a build-up, and southward push, of an Arctic air mass. Concurrent with the slow expansion of bitter cold air will be ejection of energy and moisture from a low connected to the subtropical jet stream coursing across Mexico. Another shortwave will dig across the Midwest and Northeast, in the process booting out any remnant of the expected New England blizzard. While some rain, sleet and snow is expected with this disturbance, no critical accumulations of snowfall or glazing seems likely before January 30.

I mention that day because that is when the energy in the southern branch (thank you weak El Nino) begins to interact with another impulse digging through the northern High Plains. Surface cyclogenesis in South Texas will likely track close to the Gulf Coast, with heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Lone Star State and Deep South and the possibility of ice and even snow issues in the Interstate 20 and 30 corridors. The European model idea of the polar jet stream feature catching the moisture and deepening off of the Atlantic coastline looks good, as we have been seeing these cases during the winter so far. The big difference this time is the solid bank of cAk values that dominate the eastern two thirds of the U.S. between January 31 and February 4, I strongly favor an aggressive solution for snow and frozen types for Appalachia, the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain in and around Groundhog Day.

Yes, another example of winter weather targeting the Eastern Seaboard....

The slow amplification trend of the ridge complex in the West should result in a broad blocking signature comprised of -EPO, +PNA, -AO and eventually -NAO elements (the latter created by the expansion and northward trajectory of the major winter storm moving through Dixie and off of the East Coast. This is a very cold scenario, enabling drainage of cAk values from the North Pole, with some of the cold air reaching into southern Mexico and Cuba. Lake-related snowfall is still likely to be a concern in areas adjacent to open water, and I cannot rule out the risk of another coastal storm affecting the Eastern Seaboard (though probably after this time frame).
   

 

Cosgrove

 

[jaxjagman]

The first part of the 6 - 10 day period will likely be a "setting the table" phase, with a build-up, and southward push, of an Arctic air mass. Concurrent with the slow expansion of bitter cold air will be ejection of energy and moisture from a low connected to the subtropical jet stream coursing across Mexico. Another shortwave will dig across the Midwest and Northeast, in the process booting out any remnant of the expected New England blizzard. While some rain, sleet and snow is expected with this disturbance, no critical accumulations of snowfall or glazing seems likely before January 30.

I mention that day because that is when the energy in the southern branch (thank you weak El Nino) begins to interact with another impulse digging through the northern High Plains. Surface cyclogenesis in South Texas will likely track close to the Gulf Coast, with heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Lone Star State and Deep South and the possibility of ice and even snow issues in the Interstate 20 and 30 corridors. The European model idea of the polar jet stream feature catching the moisture and deepening off of the Atlantic coastline looks good, as we have been seeing these cases during the winter so far. The big difference this time is the solid bank of cAk values that dominate the eastern two thirds of the U.S. between January 31 and February 4, I strongly favor an aggressive solution for snow and frozen types for Appalachia, the Piedmont and Atlantic Coastal Plain in and around Groundhog Day.

Yes, another example of winter weather targeting the Eastern Seaboard....

The slow amplification trend of the ridge complex in the West should result in a broad blocking signature comprised of -EPO, +PNA, -AO and eventually -NAO elements (the latter created by the expansion and northward trajectory of the major winter storm moving through Dixie and off of the East Coast. This is a very cold scenario, enabling drainage of cAk values from the North Pole, with some of the cold air reaching into southern Mexico and Cuba. Lake-related snowfall is still likely to be a concern in areas adjacent to open water, and I cannot rule out the risk of another coastal storm affecting the Eastern Seaboard (though probably after this time frame).
   

 

Cosgrove

 

[jaxjagman]

This site is still screwed up,i can't post everything together so i'll try singular

[jaxjagman]

Fatal error: Incompatible file format: The encoded file has format major ID 3, whereas the Loader expects 4 in /home/admin/public_html/bb/admin/applications_addon/ips/nexus/extensions/memberSync.php on line 0

 

still issues with this site

[1234snow]

0z GFS was a no go tonight. Energy cuts off and never gets ejected out. Very different solution then past runs of the model today. Looks more like the 12z Euro.

[jaxjagman]

0z GFS was a no go tonight. Energy cuts off and never gets ejected out. Very different solution then past runs of the model today. Looks more like the 12z Euro.

Agree,that was an extreme run to me though,keep watching the esms

[Carvers Gap]

0z GFS was a no go tonight. Energy cuts off and never gets ejected out. Very different solution then past runs of the model today. Looks more like the 12z Euro.

0z Euro supports the 0z GFS. Cold is in and out. Miller B city. Southern stream is nonexistent. This has only been a drill.

[jaxjagman]

0z GFS was a no go tonight. Energy cuts off and never gets ejected out. Very different solution then past runs of the model today. Looks more like the 12z Euro.

Annoying,we need that SW system to get kicked out and not sheared out

[tnweathernut]

Just took a look at the euro individuals (EPS). I was expecting to see a bleak picture, but was surprised to notice about 20% give east TN 6+, with a 2+ mean. The number of members that provided a big snow actually increased from 12z yesterday. Still a long way out, and a lot can change, hopefully for the better......

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS for this time frame has gone from feast to famine. Amazing. This is the second time this winter that the models went from consensus cold to consensus lukewarm. Unless something changes soon...spring will be here. I think we have one more period around Valentine's day where the teleconnections hint at opportunity. And that looks like that may be it. Basically, we are down to the last five weeks of winter...and the models show zero for the first two. Let's hope the Euro comes in with something. Will be the first snowless winter here since I moved back in 98' if things continue.

[weathertree4u]

12z GFS for this time frame has gone from feast to famine. Amazing. This is the second time this winter that the models went from consensus cold to consensus lukewarm. Unless something changes soon...spring will be here. I think we have one more period around Valentine's day where the teleconnections hint at opportunity. And that looks like that may be it. Basically, we are down to the last five weeks of winter...and the models show zero for the first two. Let's hope the Euro comes in with something. Will be the first snowless winter here since I moved back in 98' if things continue.

Technically, we have gotten a trace a couple of times, counting yesterday, north of Nashville but it is aggravating to say the least when I and probably alot of those on this forum, had been salivating at the winter outlooks for 2014/2015 since last August, then come to find out that it is yet another year where we are missed. I would personally like to throw the GFS as far as I could but with my bad back and all!

[1234snow]

The 0z Euro brought back our storm and our mojo in a big way tonight/early morning. Very nice hit for all of the State of Tennessee(except for the very far northwest tip of the state) with most getting easily above 2 inches.

The 500mb maps look much better from this run which led to the huge difference from no storm to a big prolonged overrunning event. From about hours 96-132 our cutoff low is spinning slowly to the east. It has it slightly further east than past runs. Then around hour 138 the northern stream dives into the U.S. around Montana. This is the key to our storm here as for where the energy from the north enters America. This run from the Euro is further west than the GFS in where it is diving down, looks more like the GGEM runs from yesterday and 0z.

Hours 138-152 the southern energy is trying to pinch off but the flow from the north won't let it. Hour 158 the two pieces of energy phase(as best I can tell) around Colorado. From then on very little energy is left behind and the trough rolls eastward setting the stage for a nice southern slider/ overrunning event.

As far as surface maps go the surface low tracks roughly from New Orleans to Charleston and then off the Outer Banks of NC. Nice track for us and the cold air is there throughout the whole storm thanks to the push and interaction from the Canadian energy.

As for accumulations most everyone gets in on the clown confetti. Less further west and higher as you go east all the way to the mountains. Memphis gets 2" then up to 3" at Nashville which would break the streak. 4-6" from Nashville to the plateau(Cookville and Crossville). 6-8 inches for all of the valley and yes this includes Chattanooga as it is cold enough there. Then 9-12+ for the mountains and most of NC. Northern AL,MS,GA get in on the 2+ action too although the cutoff to the south is the extreme there.

I'm still not overly excited or confident yet as the Euro went from no storm to a Winter Uncancel storm in one run. 0z GFS was moving closer to what the Euro just showed but still held back too much energy. GGEM shows a Lakes Cutter and has been persistent in showing that for the past 2 days except for yesterday's 12z run which showed a southern slider.

This isn't fantasy anymore. The key interactions that will make or break this storm are in the hour 120-138 range. Can't wait to see the ensembles. I bet there are biggies.

[weathertree4u]

The 0z Euro brought back our storm and our mojo in a big way tonight/early morning. Very nice hit for all of the State of Tennessee(except for the very far northwest tip of the state) with most getting easily above 2 inches.

The 500mb maps look much better from this run which led to the huge difference from no storm to a big prolonged overrunning event. From about hours 96-132 our cutoff low is spinning slowly to the east. It has it slightly further east than past runs. Then around hour 138 the northern stream dives into the U.S. around Montana. This is the key to our storm here as for where the energy from the north enters America. This run from the Euro is further west than the GFS in where it is diving down, looks more like the GGEM runs from yesterday and 0z.

Hours 138-152 the southern energy is trying to pinch off but the flow from the north won't let it. Hour 158 the two pieces of energy phase(as best I can tell) around Colorado. From then on very little energy is left behind and the trough rolls eastward setting the stage for a nice southern slider/ overrunning event.

As far as surface maps go the surface low tracks roughly from New Orleans to Charleston and then off the Outer Banks of NC. Nice track for us and the cold air is there throughout the whole storm thanks to the push and interaction from the Canadian energy.

As for accumulations most everyone gets in on the clown confetti. Less further west and higher as you go east all the way to the mountains. Memphis gets 2" then up to 3" at Nashville which would break the streak. 4-6" from Nashville to the plateau(Cookville and Crossville). 6-8 inches for all of the valley and yes this includes Chattanooga as it is cold enough there. Then 9-12+ for the mountains and most of NC. Northern AL,MS,GA get in on the 2+ action too although the cutoff to the south is the extreme there.

I'm still not overly excited or confident yet as the Euro went from no storm to a Winter Uncancel storm in one run. 0z GFS was moving closer to what the Euro just showed but still held back too much energy. GGEM shows a Lakes Cutter and has been persistent in showing that for the past 2 days except for yesterday's 12z run which showed a southern slider.

This isn't fantasy anymore. The key interactions that will make or break this storm are in the hour 120-138 range. Can't wait to see the ensembles. I bet there are biggies.

The latest run of the GFS looks confused - to my untrained eye - it looks like it never really gets together and it is not as cold as the Euro?

[Stovepipe]

Euro is friggin beautiful, GFS not far off.  Let's see if we can get some run to run consistency and reel this one in.

[1234snow]

The latest run of the GFS looks confused - to my untrained eye - it looks like it never really gets together and it is not as cold as the Euro?

It gets it together but the low is much more north than the Euro. Euro takes the low from New Orleans to Charleston. GFS takes the low from Birmingham to New York City. Much warmer on the GFS. Not quite the interaction between the two streams that the Euro had but like Stovepipe just said its a step in the right direction. It's a much better look.

I'm not really worried about the track right now I just want to see a good consensus and signal for a storm and for our energy to eject out with phasing from the northern stream. The GFS still held a lot of energy back. All options look to be on the table (Lakes Cutter,Apps rider, southern slider, no storm).

[John1122]

I just cracked up reading the BNA discussion this morning. Especially the part where they talked about brain strain. The Euro shows it snowing all night Sunday night in Crossville, while as they put it, the GFS has it bone dry.

[jaxjagman]

SJT is not getting squashed to Cuba,on both the GFS and Euro,timing differences between both models.But all in all the best runs we've seen in a couple days.

[tnweathernut]

No doubt John, pretty crazy considering the money spent on modeling. Take a look at NYC right now. Within 48 hours and some modeling saying 6-12, some 2+ feet. What do you go with?

I always wondered if that storm (clipper bomb) might be negatively affecting the modeling for the late weekend system. At the very least it's good to see it showing up again on the euro op. I never really lost confidence in this period as the eps individuals continued to show nice hits on about 20-25% of its members. Pretty high, considering it was still 5+ days away.

Will be interesting to see if Steve's thread can bring one home for someone in the TN Valley or SE. Either way, for archive purposes, I am glad we have it.

Other sub-forums can choose to do it however they want when it comes to threads, but I like the fact that our moderator encourages discussion. IMO that's what a weather board should be about. The second part of that equation is us (the members), and we need to be mature enough to stay on topic, but I digress.

[Stovepipe]

0z GGEM cuts the low up through middle TN but add it to the list of models that aren't far from being awesome.

[Greyhound]

No doubt John, pretty crazy considering the money spent on modeling. Take a look at NYC right now. Within 48 hours and some modeling saying 6-12, some 2+ feet. What do you go with?

I always wondered if that storm (clipper bomb) might be negatively affecting the modeling for the late weekend system. At the very least it's good to see it showing up again on the euro op. I never really lost confidence in this period as the eps individuals continued to show nice hits on about 20-25% of its members. Pretty high, considering it was still 5+ days away.

Will be interesting to see if Steve's thread can bring one home for someone in the TN Valley or SE. Either way, for archive purposes, I am glad we have it.

Other sub-forums can choose to do it however they want when it comes to threads, but I like the fact that our moderator encourages discussion. IMO that's what a weather board should be about. The second part of that equation is us (the members), and we need to be mature enough to stay on topic, but I digress.

 

I know this should go in the banter section......but what I really like about this subforum is how everybody is respectful to everybody else.   Unlike other subforums, and sites, I don't detect an elitist attitutde, and really appreciate the fact that the members here don't demean, belittle, call each other names, question their upbringing, etc whenever their is a difference of opinion or disagreement.  So, THANKS to all of you for keeping it real, and allowing a person with limited knowledge to follow along, learn, and not be afraid of asking a question, or replying to a topic!!!

 

(Back to your regular scheduled programing)

[Stovepipe]

MRX:

 

 

A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES
DON`T APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION
TO OCCUR IN LIQUID FORM. AFTER ALL...IT IS STILL WINTER.

[Stovepipe]

Robert:

 

[tnweathernut]

0z GGEM cuts the low up through middle TN but add it to the list of models that aren't far from being awesome.

I agree. There are infinitely more ways down here to achieve a rain solution vs. a snow solution with almost ANY potential snow system.  It's simply the nature of snow systems in the south.  Occasionally modeling will lock onto a system that provides and opportunity.  There are even times where the NAO is negative, and the ridging out west is stable and tall which enhances the opportunity.

 

What we have in the late weekend/early week possibility is a decent ridge out west that seems to be under pretty consistent attack from the Pacific (will it spike and hold?), and a southern stream wave (that may or may not kick east at an opportune time).  

 

What appears to happen on the Euro from 0z is a perfectly timed jog east with our southern system, along with the decent ridging out west that sends cold to the south just ahead of the system moving east providing overrunning from a Miller A (originates in the northern Gulf/southern Louisana hour 168, before heading ENE off the east coast and deepening).  

What seems to help this happen is at hour 96 you have another clipper heading through the great lakes that seems to team up with another low pressure out in the Atlantic (that has its origins around the Bahamas at hour 72, then moves northeast then north before being captured between hours 120-144 by the clipper) creating another bomb, that very temporarily provides both a 50/50 and a -NAO at just the right time.  If this doesn't happen and the low kicks east out of the southwest you'd probably have a system that rides too far north to provide anything other than a cold rain (i.e. the GGEM)

 

A LOT has to go right for this to provide a snowy solution, but it's certainly not out of the question.  I hope to see more modeling jump on board with sending down the cold air the Euro sees and will be watching future Euro runs to see how the clipper low and the other low in the Atlantic evolve.  

 

At this point, most in the mid-south should proceed cautiously optimistic.

[tnweathernut]

the 12Z GFS took a baby step toward the Euro solution from last night.  There are still a lot of differences to be worked out to provide something snowy for the mid-south, but this gives me confidence we are indeed still in the game.

[tnweathernut]

12z GGEM coming in with a solution that is in between the Euro and GFS it appears.  Looks to be a nice north of I-40 snowstorm through middle TN, maybe even TN through the plateau above I-40, and a lot of snow (6-8) also for a good chunk of the state of Kentucky.  

Again, looks to be putting us close to the field.  Whether we score on a limited basis or more substantially remains to be seen. Still encouraged.

[Stovepipe]

12z Euro ejects the energy out of the SW but the northern component is weaker resulting in a weaker overall system for us, mostly a 35 degree rain.  Somehow 2/3rds of TN (northern and eastern) finagle 2 to 4 inches on the backside though.  That is my rough description of what's going on, I'm sure someone else can better describe the whys and hows.