Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Also, the 12z GEFS total 120 hour precip is a thing of beauty for cold and has .5+ over the entire state of TN and .75+ from the northeast corner of AL to the SE border of KY/VA - including pretty much ALL of east TN and 1" near Chattanooga. I'm gonna ride the ensembles of all the models to victory! 12z GEFS snow mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What I think happens. It's looking (to me) more and more likely to have more consolidated energy passing just to our south (Maybe a fairly weak Miller A), with an inverted trough across TN. I am not buying the two wave idea at the moment. I still think this will be a pretty big qpf producer, but there will be mid-south winners and losers (as always). Too early for discussing accumulations, but it's easily the best look of the year and might turn out to be the best one of the winter. I agree,the HPC maps agree also,if that inverted trough is in the right spot we could get a nice thumping .The Euro and NAM latest runs show this,GFS not so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 By the way, that 12z NAM is cobbing about an inch more than the 11:1 ratio snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Op's will lead the way from here on out IMO...Has always been my experience that ensembles are good for weeding out "blips" in the model runs and for use in medium range forecasting. However, Op's will spot trends the closer we get. Ensembles will blur that pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think tonight 0Z we'll start seeing more agreement in models, and certainly by 6Z tomorrow. Our northern piece should have been sampled at least a bit by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Op's will lead the way from here on out IMO...Has always been my experience that ensembles are good for weeding out "blips" in the model runs and for use in medium range forecasting. However, Op's will spot trends the closer we get. Ensembles will blur that pic. I guess it's possible, but from the 6z gfs, only 5 of the individuals left the baja energy behind, including the OP. I'd usually not go against 16/21 ensemble members, especially with the ukmet and euro pretty much showing the same thing. (ensembles included) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Pretty cool tool I just found on the EPS Euro Ensemble package. This is generalized, but valid for the entire state of TN There is a 90% chance of greater than 1" of snow There is a 70% chance of greater than 3" of snow There is a 50% chance of greater than 6" of snow 50% chances of 3" also extend down into the northern 1/3 of MS, AL, and GA fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Carvers, I know you have concern looking at some of the OP modeling. What do you think will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And the Euro is here to save the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Euro doesn't look bad so far. At hour 78 the whole state is covered in snow. A stripe of .40-.50 QPF is right in the heart of the state just on that 78 hour panel alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SV snow graphic is not so sexy as Weatherbell but is showing statewide 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dr. Yes brings 4 to 6 inches for all of TN with the northern 1/3rd of MS, AL, and GA getting 4 to 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 And the Euro is here to save the day! € Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hour 90 Clown Map from 12z Euro http://imgur.com/72AS4za Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Just now to where I can post. Tnweathernut, I honestly don't know what will happen. You all know I like the time period and that climo is going to win some battles...I just don't know if this is the battle it wins. But it does have some qualities of a good snowstorm. I don't like that the GFS is not on board. It has led the way at times this winter. At times, not. The 12z Euro being steady is good. How is the UKMET? Honestly, at this point in the day I don't have as much time to post so I have a little less time to explain my thinking...thus, the short responses and questions. I am really the type of person that will question things to make sure thinking is sound. And you are correct, multiple members supporting a wetter solution is something I would side with, not against. I do also know that the OP is usually first at picking-up trends. Right now the system is still not well defined in the models and that gives me a great amount of pause. I mean it could be strung out, consolidated into one piece, or be a long duration event...or it could be nothing. I think the models are struggling w/ the energy in the southwest and not knowing which piece of energy to jump on. I don't know either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z euro snow map (from MA forum). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Dr. Yes brings 4 to 6 inches for all of TN with the northern 1/3rd of MS, AL, and GA getting 4 to 5. Wonder if we can squeeze out higher ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, no matter my thinking...time to break the Nashville snow drought. Looks like a slider like this would have a real chance of doing that. So, good for those folks! To me, verbatim, looks like a sold 3-6" snow statewide. Where it lines up will determine the areas of greatest snowfall. Now, I do agree that the GFS does take a perfect track w/ an unusually small precipitation shield. This is event is not set in stone. Energy that rides an Arctic boundary has usually been a good ticket here. I will admit, I don't like it getting weaker w/ each run. So, at this point, I think that is something to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Wonder if we can squeeze out higher ratios? I think we can. You guys cobbed up to 7.5 on the NAM. That eurowx map seems to show higher ratios with it's algorithm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Really have to like where BNA is sitting right now. Most of what the Euro shows falling is within hour 96 now, and BNA is on the northern edge of the heavier snows. I hope it's right for you guys over that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 snow ratios would be indeed good at 23 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gotta go to Atlanta my son has a gymnastics meet tomorrow,i'll post the euro text later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 snow ratios would be indeed good at 23 degrees Agreed! 15:1 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On to the good ukie maps, hopefully they start rolling out in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Really have to like where BNA is sitting right now. Most of what the Euro shows falling is within hour 96 now, and BNA is on the northern edge of the heavier snows. I hope it's right for you guys over that way! I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. I'm not going to get too excited until I can see the whites of its eyes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. I'm not going to get too excited until I can see the whites of its eyes.. LOL! The SREF snow means are creeping up. Knoxville and Nashville are at about 3 inches on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm cautiously optimistic at this point. I'm not going to get too excited until I can see the whites of its eyes.. After 1,450+ days since your last one incher, I don't blame you, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL! The SREF snow means are creeping up. Knoxville and Nashville are at about 3 inches on the latest run. Yeah BNA, CHA, TYS, and TRI all the means are up to close to 3", with all having max members between 10" and 12". Big jump from earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I count about 5 or 6 GEFS members out of 21 that resemble the op in terms of mean snow for TN. The rest have the precip shield north of the op into our area with good amounts. 10 of the members absolutely crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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