ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Memphis NWS and Little Rock NWS have already issued SPS for their CWAs. Little Rock is asking people to get prepared and start monitoring now. I bet by tonight late night or tomorrow morning Little Rock maybe Memphis will have issued Winter Storm Watches, or at the least Winter Weather Advisories. Add Paducah KY NWS to that list as well issuing SPS for their CWA for the coming event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM looks great! Looks fantastic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Whats interesting to see as Stove was talking about earlier with the Euro Ensambles showing a sort of growing snow pack for the longer range, NWS forecast for my back yard has a chance of snow every single day from tomorrow night though thursday, with the exception of a sunny and bitterly cold Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z NAM looks great! Stove, is that the whole event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Stove, is that the whole event? Yep, it's outta here by 18z Monday, hour 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess what I am saying is that the NAM does not look like what is depicted on the UKMET or Euro. Looks like northern stream energy only. Is there a second event to follow the first that ejects from the soutwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess what I am saying is that the NAM does not look like what is depicted on the UKMET or Euro. Looks like northern stream energy only. Is there a second event to follow the first that ejects from the soutwest? There is a piece in the rockies at hour 84 but there isn't a second wave of this storm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess what I am saying is that the NAM does not look like what is depicted on the UKMET or Euro. Looks like northern stream energy only. Is there a second event to follow the first that ejects from the soutwest? Take a look at the 250 jet streak and the vorticity map. Not a bad look. A little more backing in the flow and there would be a lot more precip. This is also why the models are struggling IMO. It's a delicate balancing act here and minor changes could result in much better or much worse looks. Also, for anyone on our board, the model center has all this stuff. I highly recommend it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 eeks.... 12Z GFS not looking good so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 eeks.... 12Z GFS not looking good so far... Yeah the initial wave that hits TN is weak sauce, then precip explodes to our south. It takes its time to move through too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ok well now I'm liking the low placement around 102 hours... Precip shield doesn't look great but thats typical of GFS under model of northern precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I guess what I am saying is that the NAM does not look like what is depicted on the UKMET or Euro. Looks like northern stream energy only. Is there a second event to follow the first that ejects from the soutwest? There is a piece in the rockies at hour 84 but there isn't a second wave of this storm on the NAM. It looks to me to be all northern stream energy on the NAM out to hour 84. Some northern energy is racing ahead of the main trough. The base of the trough is still way back in the Rockies at hour 84. But the orientation of the trough is positive tilted and it did not pick up the Baja low. The second wave of the storm isn't in the NAM's range yet but it looks like it is heading the direction of the GFS with no second waves. Fairly similar to me. I think if we are going to get the big dog and the second wave, we need the Baja low to get picked up. The trough is not digging far enough southwest and the Baja low is getting left behind. I think that is the big difference from past runs. We are not getting the moisture from the southern stream in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 eeks.... 12Z GFS not looking good so far... Sizeable shift north with the heavier QPF, which at 6z was centered along the gulf coast. Now it's centering between the southern to central gulf states. When you have the Ukie and Euro on your side, it's hard to see this as anything but an outlier at this point. maps courtesy of americanwx's model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Sizeable shift north with the heavier QPF, which at 6z was centered along the gulf coast. Now it's centering between the southern to central gulf states. When you have the Ukie and Euro on your side, it's hard to see this as anything but an outlier at this point. maps courtesy of americanwx's model suite. The low placement on 102, and 108 if were to make small corrections north and west could bury plateau and eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 As a side note, the clipper on Thursday fills in some blanks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The low placement on 102, and 108 if were to make small corrections north and west could bury plateau and eastward. It'll be interesting to see if the GEFS mean is NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The pattern at the 500mb level on the 12z GFS isn't going to get it done in my opinion. We need improvements to that first before we see a shift NW with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 This northern piece to me looks like it just moves on shore this afternoon in northern BC/Yukon, wonder if we will get more reliable data the next few models run with better sampling. Though not sure what extent of sampling occurs in remote BC/Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So I am suppose to believe a surface map that has surface low coming out of the north central gulf with a 1009 surface low in southwest GA at hour 102, tracking off the central SC coast while strengthening to 1004 by hour 108 that doesn't have a more expansive precip shield into TN? Yeah, I doubt it.As modeled, it's a classic east TN and southern apps snow track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM is getting it done! Significant jog north from 0z, lots more precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM is getting it done! Significant jog north from 0z, lots more precip as well. Come on canuk!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM Snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM Snow! Big glossy red kiss to Little Rock. This year is such an interesting year in modeling. We are in medium range and still such a wide variance in model guidance. Amazing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 12z GGEM Snow! Is that the entire time frame? Looks like a big drop-off west to east. Much less than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What I think happens. It's looking (to me) more and more likely to have more consolidated energy passing just to our south (Maybe a fairly weak Miller A), with an inverted trough across TN. I am not buying the two wave idea at the moment. I still think this will be a pretty big qpf producer, but there will be mid-south winners and losers (as always). Too early for discussing accumulations, but it's easily the best look of the year and might turn out to be the best one of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Is that the entire time frame? Looks like a big drop-off west to east. Much less than yesterday. Entire time frame of the early week storm, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The ukmet from last night was solidly 1-2" of total QPF for the entire state of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Also, the 12z GEFS total 120 hour precip is a thing of beauty for cold and has .5+ over the entire state of TN and .75+ from the northeast corner of AL to the SE border of KY/VA - including pretty much ALL of east TN and 1" near Chattanooga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The ukmet from last night was solidly 1-2" of total QPF for the entire state of TN. The ukie, is important I think to really watch with its recent track record for our recent disappointing "Super" storm. It pegged it early and kept it. It doesn't buy the 2 wave scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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