ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Euro was less amped as well. It is really just one initial wave. Still better than most models. Around 6" for most of the state. Clown: http://i.imgur.com/Q1cmvSa.jpg Yeah that still isn't bad. I guess we'll see tomorrow what all the globals decide to do. See if we see a return similar to earlier solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 similar much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 similar much? That is an interesting potential analog.... Hmmm... Looks pretty similar to current modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah that still isn't bad. I guess we'll see tomorrow what all globals decide to do. See if we see a return to similar earlier solutions. Yeah if 12z runs tomorrow are the same then I will be getting concerned. It was interesting to see the 18z GFS start this evenings trend of a less amped and further south-east system. But we have seen this over the past few years where the models will kind of lose the system around the medium range only to pick it back up closer to the intensity that it had. It may have to do with the lack of observations being injected into the models from the northern Pacific Ocean. This is where it can get fuzzy until some pieces of energy come onshore of North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 NAM gives a few inches on the front end during the Sunday night/Monday morning timeframe with moisture stretching out from Texas and overrunning. By Monday afternoon, it has a weak LP sitting over Southern Mississippi with a small precip shield north of it. Pretty similar to the 00z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Glad to see the 0z Euro still looking great. It's actually the best run yet in terms of everyone in the TN Valley getting in on the action. Pretty much all of TN gets 8+ but a large swath of north MS, AL, GA get 5. Trends matter and this is weaker but temp wise and precip shield wise it's really dang good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Glad to see the 0z Euro still looking great. It's actually the best run yet in terms of everyone in the TN Valley getting in on the action. Pretty much all of TN gets 8+ but a large swath of north MS, AL, GA get 5. Trends matter and this is weaker but temp wise and precip shield wise it's really dang good. I'd sure like to see the clown map. Also MRX isn't very sure this morning. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. CURRENT RUN OF THE NAM KEEPS THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THIS SCENARIO COULD BRING A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EVEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE GFS RUN HAS TRENDED TO A COLDER AIR MASS BUT ALSO KEEPS THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH WHICH WOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. PRIOR RUNS BROUGHT WARMER AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION PROVIDING A RAIN SNOW MIX. HAVE TRENDED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES BUT THE ONLY PLACE CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLE FOR DECENT SNOWFALL IS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...GENERALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BUT EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COLD AIR AND AT LEAST ONE MORE LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH FOR CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Ukie did jog north putting the heaviest precip in KY. Most of TN gets 3 to 5 with 40 north in west TN getting 8. Again, great winter storm for many people taken at face value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Ukie did jog north putting the heaviest precip in KY. Most of TN gets 3 to 5 with 40 north in west TN getting 8. Again, great winter storm for many people taken at face value. I have a feeling it'll be GFS or GGEM against the rest of the models until these things get closer. My gut (and maybe it's wishcasting) tells me that the GFS is suppressing things much too far to the south as it usually does for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 06z GFS has the NAM thump through hr 90. Sunday night into Monday it lays down 2+ inches for almost the whole state, with areas of 4-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 But the LP is around 100 miles south of 00z and it blows out to sea with a whimper after that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 06z snowfall, a bit more than 00z. There is a clipper heading towards the area on the heels of this too, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Then a system drops out of Canada to Colorado, then to Oklahoma and Arkansas, then to South Alabama and across to off the coast of South Carolina. It slows way down around Oklahoma and just pounds Memphis to Atlanta with 4-8 inches of snow. Not to worry, Coastal South Carolina only gets an inch or two it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That clipper system is modeled way SW of where most clippers go. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move back NE, asuming it even stays on the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 JKL said they expect intense snow squalls to develop for their area behind the front Saturday afternoon and evening and for there to be 20:1 ratios on them. They said their CWA would probably get 1-2 inches from them. Those often transition somewhat into Tennessee. Especially when they start talking Lake Michigan connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yeah John, I wondered about that. You ought to do real well with the front Saturday evening. The WRF was showing that too. Probably just the usual dusting of the winter though in the valley, if even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 0z euro ensemble snow mean is the best I've ever seen for the TN Valley. It starts building for our early week storm and keeps adding at a consistent rate through day 15. Goes from 3 to 5 early on to 10+ inches for the entire state. Even north MS, AL, and GA are at 6+ at the end. The control run similar. Looks like a very active wintry pattern is settling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So, what do we know right now? There is zero model consensus on where this goes. It could go to Cuba, go to Lexington, go here, or go poof. It is just too far out(relative to model reliability this winter) to know anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I can't help but to be encouraged by what I'm seeing so far. Euro is very reminiscent of the January 2011 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I still think we're going to see the models come north a bit. That GGEM looked great just a tad south. The weakening of the system might be a concern if the trend continues, but on the other hand temps don't seem to be a problem. There is a fine balance that has to be struck but I still like where we are at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Euro ensemble tally (out of 51 members), Big Dog = 6 or more inches Knoxville - 35 Big Dogs, op 8, mean 8 Memphis - 24 Big Dogs, op 6.5, mean 6.8 Nashville - 36 Big Dogs, op 7, mean 8 Chattanooga - 36 Big Dogs, op 6.2, mean 7.8 Bristol - 36 Big Dogs, op 6, mean 8 Atlanta - 11 Big Dogs, op 3.8, mean 3.7 Huntsville - 25 Big Dogs, 4.8, mean 6 To me that is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 6z GEFS snow mean. Days 1 - 8: Days 1 - 16: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z Euro ensemble tally (out of 51 members), Big Dog = 6 or more inches Knoxville - 35 Big Dogs, op 8, mean 8 Memphis - 24 Big Dogs, op 6.5, mean 6.8 Nashville - 36 Big Dogs, op 7, mean 8 Chattanooga - 36 Big Dogs, op 6.2, mean 7.8 Bristol - 36 Big Dogs, op 6, mean 8 Atlanta - 11 Big Dogs, op 3.8, mean 3.7 Huntsville - 25 Big Dogs, 4.8, mean 6 To me that is incredible. I agree!!! To see so many people have shot at beating seasonal averages by 2 or 3 times in one storm from a winter where it didn't appear to be likely to produce anything at all for anyone is beautiful in my eyes! Sure I would like to see 20" but believe me I was starting to think this winter a dusting was going to be all I saw, so i'm happy. Beggers can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's worth noting, the GGEM's ensemble snow output from 0z is north of the OP and is a TN (area wide) snow. Primarily shows 4-6+ for almost everyone in the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The 0z euro ensemble snow mean is the best I've ever seen for the TN Valley. It starts building for our early week storm and keeps adding at a consistent rate through day 15. Goes from 3 to 5 early on to 10+ inches for the entire state. Even north MS, AL, and GA are at 6+ at the end. The control run similar. Looks like a very active wintry pattern is settling in. Can you post a map for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Can you post a map for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thanks man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Old Hickory late night discussion.... A 1040 PLUS MBAR HIGH CENTERED OVER GREAT LAKES BUILDSDOWN INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVEEMBEDDED IN BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIVES DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE MISSISSIPPIVALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERES AGOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MID STATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOMEACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. THEN THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITHTHE EURO BEING THE OUTLIER BETWEEN THE GFS, CANADIAN, DGEX AND OTHERSTHAT I HAVE LOOKED AT. THE EURO HAS THE INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDINGOUT OF TEXAS UP INTO TENNESSEE WITH A RATHER BROAD AREA OF PRECIPACROSS TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT AREAS WHILE THE GFS AND OTHER MODELSHAVE INVERTED TROUGH SUPRESSED MORE TO OUR SOUTH WITH NORTHERNEXTENT OF PRECIP FIELD GENERALLY TO OUR SOUTH. REALITY PROBABLYLIES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO. I DO THINK WE WILL SEE SOME WINTRYPRECIP MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BUT I HAVE SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE ATTHIS TIME OF GETTING SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIP HERE IN MIDDLETENNESSEE DURING THIS PERIOD...DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.COLD TEMPS WILL REMAIN THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY HIGHSBELOW 40 DEGREES.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMP ON SUNDAY IS FORECAST TO BE 26 DEGREES INNASHVILLE. THE RECORD FOR THE LOWEST DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORFEBRUARY 15TH IS 24 DEGREES LAST SET IN 1991.THE LAST TIME NASHVILLE HAD A SNOW EVENT OF ONE INCH OR MORE WASBACK ON FEBRUARY 9TH 2011...WHEN 1.4 INCHES FELL. THERE WERE ALSO SOME2 INCH AMOUNTS AROUND THE AREA THAT DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Memphis NWS and Little Rock NWS have already issued SPS for their CWAs. Little Rock is asking people to get prepared and start monitoring now. I bet by tonight late night or tomorrow morning Little Rock maybe Memphis will have issued Winter Storm Watches, or at the least Winter Weather Advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Little Rock NWS graphic for Sunday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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