BNAwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have a forecast of rain with a low of 7 Saturday night. If nothing else, I'll probably never see that again. Talk about flash freeze! I've seen rain in the upper teens before and it ain't pretty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Old Hickory AFD ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-STATE SATURDAY. THISIS THE ONE THAT WILL GET A LOT OF PEOPLE`S ATTENTION AS IT COULDBRING SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BUT ITWILL USHER IN SOME VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY MORNING...ANDEVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS. NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE COMMONPLACE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SOME FALLING TOWARDS -10 DEGREES FAROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. PLEASE KEEP THISIN MIND IF YOU WILL BE OUT FIRST THING SUNDAY.AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MUCH OF THEMEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEOVERRUNNING QPF TO MOVE INTO A VERY COLD ENVIRONMENT. FORECASTSOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE PLENTY DEEP ENOUGH FOR CRYSTALFORMATION BUT HERE`S THE PROBLEM: MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT INTHE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM`S SURFACE LOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. 12ZGFS GUIDANCE SHOWS A TRACK AT LEAST 150 MILES FURTHER SOUTH THANEARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST COLDER AIR AND A MORE WINTRYFORECAST FOR US...BUT IF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EVENFURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH FUTURE SOLUTIONS...WE MAY NOT EVEN SEEANY QPF. IF THE LOW DOES HOLD THE CURRENT TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERNPORTIONS OF ALABAMA...QPF VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN ONTUESDAY ARE IN THE 0.25-0.50 INCH RANGE. ON A 10 TO 1 SNOWRATIO...THIS WOULD BE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...MOST OF WHICH WOULDBE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. NEEDLESS TO SAY FORECAST CONFIDENCECONTINUES TO BE LOW ATTM...BUT THIS IS WHERE CURRENT SOLUTIONSSTAND. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT POP TRENDS FOR THE TIME BEING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 to far S now on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS great for north MS, AL, and GA. Not so good for TN. Bet it jogs back north in a few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS Snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKMET and Euro are in our camp. I will take that all day long. I am not sweating the 18z GFS. It can get crazy. Let's see what the 0z does. Now, sometimes the 18z can sniff out a pattern...so, we will see. But the Euro and UKMET have been pretty steadfast w/ this. I would rather have the storm a tad to the south than on top of us at this point. HOWEVER....this could be getting the shove due to cold HP right on its heels. So, the ability to jog north(especially wes) may be limited. My guess, this will come back w/ time just a bit. I like where we sit at the moment. Good trends today. If it goes to Cuba, tomorrow...I might worry. But I will take the 12z model suite over the 18z GFS any day, any time. On the other hand, trends do matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GFS great for north MS, AL, and GA. Not so good for TN. Bet it jogs back north in a few runs. I like the jog south at this stage of the game. Especially since all winter jogs north in the short range have occurred. I was worried earlier with all the snow in TN, that within the last few days it would be moved north to KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Southern valley does well. So, all is not lost. Very thankful I don't have to listen to the North Carolina-centric discussions about right now. Unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ridge out west is further east,screws us by the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not worried either, but I did have some concerns watching that Euro roll in. For a minute there I thought the second wave was going to stay way south, but it eventually wiggled up enough to give us the goods. Like Nut said, it's pretty much impossible for us to improve on the 12z suite. We are bound to see some solutions going forward that are worse. Just have to buckle our seat belts and see where this ends up. I'm very very pleased with today's modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z Clipper on Thursday fills in some blanks on the plateau, so we have that going for us, which is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Plot twist on the 18z GFS. The energy that drops out west from Canada is weaker and the Baja energy is weaker as well. I'm not very concerned by the GFS. If the other big 3 models trend that way tonight then I will be concerned. The GFS hasn't been as consistent as the GGEM/Euro/UKMET trio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 31 big dogs for Knoxville on the 12z euro ensembles. 25 for Nashville, 20 for Memphis, 32 for Bristol, 28 for Chatt, 16 for Huntsville, 6 for Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 +1, North Carolina board is notorious for ethno-centric posting. I know everyone is capable of forgetting that their back yard is not reflective of the entire region but those guys almost never use qualifiers like Stove or others on our side. Nothing more frustrating then reading 12 posts of doom and gloom only to realize they were talking about the NC coast which has a totally different set of dynamics at play them mid and west nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 31 big dogs for Knoxville on the 12z euro ensembles. 25 for Nashville, 20 for Memphis, 32 for Bristol, 28 for Chatt, 16 for Huntsville, 6 for Atlanta. Quick question stove... The GFS was a lot further south on the latest run correct? What you have posted from the euro, is this the latest run as well? If so, I'm assuming it was quite a bit further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This thing is coming back yalls way I bet. What usually happens in my experience is it trends one direction too far then ticks back a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd like to make a trip to the smokies for this storm, not feeling great about TRI with the 18z GFS trek, wasn't it the 18Z that first trended south from a cutter yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We'll just have to see what kind of trend this is, or whether it comes back north. I'm always more worried about a storm being too far north or cutting than one too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This thing is coming back yalls way I bet. What usually happens in my experience is it trends one direction too far then ticks back a bit. I normally would agree with you but it's been my experience that the tick back's usually occur in the NAM'S range, 24-48 hrs out. We have another full suites of runs to keep trending further south which makes me nervous for TRI but might be looking great for the southern counties of tn valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GEFS looks fine, temps are good and mean precip is well in our range. Edit: Haven't seen mean snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Actually after looking at the track on the GFS, it's a great track for a large snow event here. New Orleans to Tallahassee to SE Georgia is a classic Gulf track and I believe we'd see a precip shield up to at least I-64 in Kentucky with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GEFS snow mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18 GEFS mean snowfall is 3 west TN, and 4/5 central/east. 6 inch bullseye in all of northeast TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 As a comparison on track, last years big snow for East Tennessee during this time frame featured a weaker low than this one is being modeled at, tracking about 100-125 miles further South along the GOM than the 18z just showed that one. We were getting pounded by heavy snow when that LP was 100 miles south of Tallahassee. This one tracks right over or just north of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z GEFS snow mean: Looks reasonable but is some of that from the clipper systems that follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not as beefy as the 12z mean, but the same general snow presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it looks to have lightened up precip amounts all around. I hope that is not a trend we see continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Most modeling shows plentiful moisture across the state. I wouldn't sweat it too much at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it looks to have lightened up precip amounts all around. I hope that is not a trend we see continue I hope not as well, but the small qpf fields on GOM lows is a classic theme on models, especially the GFS in my 12 years or so of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 While I'm waiting on the 18z panels to come out, here was the best weenie snow map from the 12z GEFS individual panels with a sub-1000mb low blowing up off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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