tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The amount of cold coming, if we get snow, will be crazy next week. Kids likely won't be in school all week if we get 3-4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z euro clown suggests everyone east of a line from about Selmer to Livingston gets 10+ inches. Nashville about 8. Ok so the southward trend continues..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Ok so the southward trend continues..... If I could be anywhere, it would probably be your area. Being on the north end of a MAJOR snow 4-6 days out is a pretty good spot to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If I could be anywhere, it would probably be your area. Being on the north end of a MAJOR snow 4-6 days out is a pretty good spot to be in. I will trust you on that just been so long since we have had a good snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 snow ratios on the euro should be pretty awesome edit:maybe not that great..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 AccuWeather.com® Professional Forecast Model Text Information.pngbna.pngmem.pngtri.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Reb tells me the new JMA is all in for snow. Haven't seen the maps myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any other year, this much model consensus inside of 120 hours would have me dancing in the streets. Still very nervous about this one though. That said, this is the best look we've had in years. Even last years massive thump around this time didn't have the goods for me, even the final days runs were wrong, but in a good way. They did however show a storm consistently for quite a while. I'm pretty confident that we're getting a storm, p-type will still be determined, especially south of the KY border and S of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Reb tells me the new JMA is all in for snow. Haven't seen the maps myself. Just took a look at the JMA, it's Euro and Ukie like. It has an overrunning band and weak wave shortly after hour 108, then brings out the "main show" around 144. Would be the two wave event I discussed earlier today. Looks like it actually brings all the energy out of the west too. Lots of total qpf too with around an inch or over for most of the TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hey JaxJag...can you post CHA and HSV also if you do not mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Hey JaxJag...can you post CHA and HSV also if you do not mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It may not go down like this, but the UKIE has been rock solid the last couple of days with regards to the snow potential. It pretty much buries the entire state with 6+ AGAIN, but it's definitely consolidated around one piece of energy, not two as shown on some modeling. It's pretty well here and gone by hour 114! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will add the Ukie at 12z is 9+ for pretty much the entire northern half of the state with 12 and 13 inch lolipops around Davidson County and the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I will add the Ukie at 12z is 9+ for pretty much the entire northern half of the state with 12 and 13 inch lolipops around Davidson County and the plateau. That is one glorious clown and that makes 4 runs in a row of widespread snowfall for the state by the Ukie. At this point in time, can anyone think of a model that isn't showing significant snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The main thing I like about this system is the major amount of cold air we have to work with. As Chatt pointed out, it's rare to have major cold lurking on both sides of a storm. Those are usually the ones that make hay for the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 you guys are looking good. I'm probably going to make a trip up north, not sure if that's to Nashville/Knoxville/Gatlinburg/Chatt/Huntsville I guess the exact chase spot can be nailed down closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That is one glorious clown and that makes 4 runs in a row of widespread snowfall for the state by the Ukie. At this point in time, can anyone think of a model that isn't showing significant snow? The NavGem was a cutter last I saw. But it tends to be well north of other guidance. It showed us with epic snows on some OTS storms earlier in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 you guys are looking good. I'm probably going to make a trip up north, not sure if that's to Nashville/Knoxville/Gatlinburg/Chatt/Huntsville I guess the exact chase spot can be nailed down closer to the event. If this continues, don't sell Crossville or any other points on the Plateau short. Great scenery, cheaper hotels, and usually state leading snow totals. Even the Plateau above Chattanooga tends to work out very well compared to surrounding lower areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If this continues, don't sell Crossville or any other points on the Plateau short. Great scenery, cheaper hotels, and usually state leading snow totals. Even the Plateau above Chattanooga tends to work out very well compared to surrounding lower areas. Crossville, TN is only three hours from here, up at near 1900 feet is nice too, I bet they would cash in pretty well in an event like this. Thank you for the tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The NavGem was a cutter last I saw. But it tends to be well north of other guidance. It showed us with epic snows on some OTS storms earlier in the year. Nope, the 12z NavGem is likely a crippling snow, very ukie and ggem like in it's low track and precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So yeah, the 12z euro ensembles support the op. Mean is solid for the time period in question (2 to 5 inches) then keeps building into the future. The entire state ends up with a mean over 6 inches out to day 15 and up to 10 inches in northern and eastern parts. So potential exists beyond the early next week storm. Control looks friggin awesome as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Check out the ensemble low clusters. Very few cut west of the mountains, almost all are south like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 TN Recap of today's modeling at 12z GFS - nice snows, heavier east. GGEM - Crush job for most in TN Euro - good snows, heavier east Ukie - Crush job for most in TN JMA - likely a good snow with a good track, plentiful QPF for the entire state NavGem- likely a crush job for most of the state. Crap, I just realized, probably no where to go from here but DOWN. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Check out the ensemble low clusters. Very few cut west of the mountains, almost all are south like the op. Even if it did go north and west by a little, would likely be a pretty good front end thump IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We're officially in NAM range now, whoo hooo! 18z at 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 MRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN319 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL QUICKLYSHIFT EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL DIMINISHOVERNIGHT. CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLYQUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL CARRY LOW POPSIN THE NORMALLY FAVORED AREAS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDINGPRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD OVERNIGHT...AND COMBINEDWITH THE WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES REACHING ADVISORYCRITERIA OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST TNMOUNTAINS. WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS ANDCARRY IT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDEACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT JUST EXPECT SOME HIGHAND MID CLOUDS WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE. WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT ABOVEMAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND A BIT BELOW FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY GIVENEXPECTED CLOUD COVER..LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...SOUTHERLY WINDSWILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGEDTO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THEFRONT...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AND EVEN THE LOWER50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TOMOVE IN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL START OFF AS RAIN ANDTHEN CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS COLDER AIR WORKS ITS WAY DURINGTHE EVENING. BY 00Z SUNDAY...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TOTHE MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH /TO PERHAPS 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BEPOSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET/. HOWEVER...THE PRIMARY STORY WILL BE THESTRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING WHICH WILL DROP LOWS ALL THEWAY DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS BY EARLY SUNDAYMORNING. THIS...IN TURN...WILL LOWER WIND CHILLS TO BETWEEN -10 TO0 DEGREES ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE VALLEY AND -10 TO -20 BELOWALONG THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FORTHESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ONCE AGAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTIONWILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY DESPITE GOOD CLEARING THANKS TO A STOUTNORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL NOT CLIMB ABOVE THEFREEZING MARK AND LOWS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE VERY COLD IN THE LOW TOMID TEENS ONCE AGAIN.THIS COLD AIR MASS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY A BIGGER...BUTVERY COMPLICATED STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BROAD UPPER-TROUGHWILL SWING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPIVALLEYS...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND SOME MORECOLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TOEXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THE TIMING OF THEPRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILE /WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGEIMPACT ON PRECIPITATION TYPE/. IN ADDITION...MODELS HAVE SHIFTEDQUITE A BIT FROM RUN TO RUN. AS A RESULT...A GREAT DEAL OFUNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT...SO HAVE TRENDCAUTIOUSLY WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND HAVE NOT GOTTEN TOOSPECIFIC JUST YET 4-5 DAYS OUT.ON MONDAY...SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THEREGION FROM THE WEST. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...THIS PRECIPITATIONMAY START OFF AS SNOW OR BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. ANYPRECIPITATION THAT FALLS MONDAY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BELIGHT...THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR SHOULD ITSTART EARLIER IN THE MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AT OR JUSTABOVE THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY NIGHT SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILLBE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HASTRENDED SOUTH AND KEPT OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAYTUESDAY. THUS...HAVE BEEN VERY CAUTIOUS WITH OVERDOING POPS DURINGTHIS TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE HOW WARM TEMPERATURESWILL GET ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOMING.MODELS WANT TO WARM THEM INTO THE 40S. DO THINK WITH AN INVERTEDTROUGH FEATURE SURFACE TEMPS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 30S TOAROUND 40. HOWEVER...WAS CAUTIOUS ABOUT RAISING THEM TOO MUCH SHOULDCOLDER AIR TO THE NORTH GET PULLED BACK INTO THE REGION. AT ANYRATE...GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THELEESIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...GOOD CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR HIGHPRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THISPRECIPITATION MAY MAINLY BE RAIN OR AT LEAST A RAIN/SNOW MIX ONTUESDAY...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING ANDNIGHT AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.SHOULD THIS OCCUR...SOME MEASURABLE SNOW /PERHAPS MEANINGFULAMOUNTS/ WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE ONLYPLACE A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A MEANINGFULSNOWFALL WOULD BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN /ABOVE 3000-4000 FEET/ OF THETENNESSEE AND NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.IN SHORT...HAVE NOT GOTTEN SPECIFIC WITH ANY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FORANY LOCATION ATTM...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES MENTIONED ABOVE. DIDHOWEVER TRY TO ADDRESS THE HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR A WIDESPREADPRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS. BYWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN WITHCOLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I guess it's very hard to forecast in this situation and you can't just rely on models. That's about all I have to say about that forecast discussion given what the entire 12z suite of now every model has shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have a forecast of rain with a low of 7 Saturday night. If nothing else, I'll probably never see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 MRX shouldn't downplay the light qpf for Monday IMO. The ground will be a rock and EVERYTHING that falls will likely stick instantly. It's the closer threat here (time wise) and it could make for a very dangerous situation, yet they just gloss over it.They have a tough job ahead of them for sure balancing the conservative, yet informative tightrope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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