Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GGEM has already buried Memphis by hour 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM WEENIE RUN!!! GGEM WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still snowing for many at this point (12z GGEM): That map is snow. The sleet and ice maps show some of that mixing in as well in the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Canadian with a crippler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Over two inches of ice in southern Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just an amazing run from our Maple Leaf friends. I would easily forget about the rest of the winter we have had if that panned out. Nice shifts on the 12z runs today. 12z GGEM/GFS would be close to all snow for most on the board. It seems to me that the trend has been for the low to track to the east of the apps now. The interaction between the Baja low and trough dropping in seems to be more consolidated. In past runs the Baja low had been ejecting out and getting ahead of the trough. I think that was leading to more of the cutter solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just an amazing run from our Maple Leaf friends. I would easily forget about the rest of the winter we have had if that panned out. Nice shifts on the 12z runs today. 12z GGEM/GFS would be close to all snow for most on the board. It seems to me that the trend has been for the low to track to the east of the apps now. The interaction between the Baja low and trough dropping in seems to be more consolidated. In past runs the Baja low had been ejecting out and getting ahead of the trough. I think that was leading to more of the cutter solutions. 12z Ukmet with a humdinger of a run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The NAM at the very end hour 84, has very good agreement in placement with GFS and everyone else with the low placement and the precip breaking out TX, Frozen precip breaking out in OK, AR and MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z Ukmet with a humdinger of a run as well. That is good to hear, can't wait to see the maps. GEFS is way south too, this is getting good. Come on Euro stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GEFS mean snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 High pressure has my attention. when looking at this possible storm, you have a massive, strong, cold HP push in ahead of this threat, and one coming in behind. This seems like it would have to thread the needle to end up giving rain this time... which is completely the opposite of what we normally deal with. High press to the north, at least for the first wave Monday, is a big change compared to recent systems. I almost forgot what that pattern looks like, lol. Plains plunger high is also very cold behind the second wave. Dynamic system could ingest some of that cold. Both HP systems with shallow cold air introduce the risk of ice accumulation, esp Mid-South to North Alabama. I'm hoping that downslope from the east saves Chatty from ice. Much as I want snow, ice avoidance is top priority. Any delay in the pivot of the main wave would promote all snow, but I have no reason to forecast that in Chatty with energy still upstream at pivot time. In fact I'd still nudge everything north of GFS verbatim, mainly because of that HP intermission early Tuesday. Nashville, dare I say it, and Knoxville have decent shots of snow iff trends continue. It is still day 5-6 and that is with this slightly faster timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 High pressure has my attention. High press to the north, at least for the first wave Monday, is a big change compared to recent systems. I almost forgot what that pattern looks like, lol. Plains plunger high is also very cold behind the second wave. Dynamic system could ingest some of that cold. Both HP systems with shallow cold air introduce the risk of ice accumulation, esp Mid-South to North Alabama. I'm hoping that downslope from the east saves Chatty from ice. Much as I want snow, ice avoidance is top priority. Any delay in the pivot of the main wave would promote all snow, but I have no reason to forecast that in Chatty with energy still upstream at pivot time. In fact I'd still nudge everything north of GFS verbatim, mainly because of that HP intermission early Tuesday. Nashville, dare I say it, and Knoxville have decent shots of snow iff trends continue. It is still day 5-6 and that is with this slightly faster timing. I appreciate your contribution here and it is prudent to remain cautiously optimistic. Even if we can get this to within 48-72 hours you will often see considerable trends and nuances that will have to be dealt with (meaning winners and losers). One big thing I am looking for here, is a faster onset of precipitation with a band of overrunning that will develop and fairly quickly and move in from west to east, ahead of the main energy. This possibility is in the day 4/5 range, instead of day 5/6. Time will tell I guess, just glad we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd like to point out this is the time period where modeling really consolidated on the track for the major storm a couple of weeks ago that began the barrage in Boston IIRC. It's a good time to put ourselves in the ballpark for something good. Looks to be a lot of moisture and a lot of cold. What can go wrong? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You dont live here..alot can go wrong..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You dont live here..alot can go wrong..lol I know your plight, I was there for 20 years. Rooting for you guys. It's a good setup. If it's still there tomorrow at this time, it will move to a great setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I do believe we have another winner incoming on the Euro. Great looking setup with a cold airmass firmly entrenched and overrunning about to spread into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Snowing in west TN by 12z Monday, freezing lines down in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 You dont live here..alot can go wrong..lol Hasn't always been that way though. The mid south used to get these slop storms with much more regularity. There are whole generations of folks that think you are supposed to get one of these every year in middle TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Entire state is covered in 3 to 4 inches by 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Just wonder how weak this can be. Euro looks kind of weenieish, lol. Hope the overrunning is plentiful. Looks like temps are good to go for once, though I am sure we see a warm nose at some point over the next two to three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Long duration event FTW! Surface looks wonky. Looks like it would have been a long duration event, but for whatever reason, there isn't much precip through 126. Maybe a met can chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The last two wave snow event I can remember in east TN was the Jan 1996 storm. This one may have that chance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That is a great BNA track there...somewhere between there and CHA is some nasty ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6 to 10 inches across TN with 3 to 5 in the far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So most everyone other than CHA/ATL does very well though Chatt scores some on the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still snowing for many at this point (12z GGEM): That map is snow. The sleet and ice maps show some of that mixing in as well in the southern areas. Now bring that south by 100 miles and we're talking! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6 to 10 inches across TN with 3 to 5 in the far NW. LOL, i kept looking at the maps and wondering where the explosion of precip with the second wave was. I guess I just needed to be patient. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z euro clown suggests everyone east of a line from about Selmer to Livingston gets 10+ inches. Nashville about 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 FYI round two looks to be taking shape at 192 on the Euro. It might cut, but there is another threat on the table it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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