DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 First, thanks to Mr. Bob for allowing this thread to be created, and thanks to TNweathernut and Stovepipe for allowing me the honors to do it! So... let's jump right in! First, I will be creating new loops with 00Z Feb 2nd as the target and I just started capturing those images this morning. I do this for me as much as anything as it helps me visualize the changes from run to run as well as helping me see trends. These loops will be similar to the ones I'm running now for the 27th. Here's an example (there are some missing images...): http://www.daculaweather.com/4_gfs_test_500mb_anom_loop.php The images below are for the target time of the loops. I'm also doing the Euro as well but can't display those. I'll let you know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm potential has me very excited. The models are telling us to look for a wintery event next weekend. Even folks down this far south could cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 This storm potential has me very excited. The models are telling us to look for a wintery event next weekend. Even folks down this far south could cash in. Agreed. I haven't been this fired up about winter weather in a year! And it appears that plenty of cold air will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Exciting times indeed...Feb=$$$...Just a guess as this point but feel suppression depression for my neck of the wood's..Hopefully someone in the SE or Tenn. valley will get clobbered..Maybe we should call this "The Webber Storm"..He has said Feb. would produce..Sure knows his stuff.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thanks for starting the thread Steve, much appreciated. If the seasonal pattern to this point remains, it will likely fizzle, but it's nice to have a thread to place all information regarding this threat and time period.I am encouraged that most modeling tends to bring most of the energy out, but the Euro has burned me MANY times before. Even earlier this year, it did the same thing and ended up being right in holding the energy out west long enough to screw us. The "look" on the modeling has been very consistent though, and a classic overrunning scenerio with a BIG high to our north is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I will add, that even if it's held back a couple of extra days this time, there seems to be SO much cold air around, we might still benefit. This holding back is more on my mind now than before after seeing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I asked LC last night if he thought the Euro holding the energy back was its bias at play and he shot back with that it didn't hold it back. I told him I'd have to look again, b/c what I thought it showed (granted at a quick glance) was a northern stream vort that amplified, holding most of the energy back in the southwest. I looked again, confirmed it, but never went back. Wonder why he thought it didn't hold it back when there was a multiple contour cutoff just sitting and spinning there?? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yes! Thanks for starting the thread Steve, I'm glad we have an outlet for discussing this one other than banter. I'll be keeping an eye on your graphics, those are a great asset. The 0z Euro continued to show a nice storm for the time period for much of the area and was supported by the ensemble mean. Not as much of a southern extent but we can worry about that later. The control favored KY, east TN, SW VA, and went nuts down in central GA and SC. As a weather lover you have to be excited by the potential we are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The 12z GFS 1-23-13 certainly supports early February as a great time period. I think from now to about the third week of February is winter for us this year. I have to say I am more excited about this time frame than I have been all winter. Climo supports this time frame as does the current pattern. Dacula, awesome that you started this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I like what I'm seeing in the 12z GGEM. Northern stream sending down piece after piece, Texas blowing up, 850 freezing line in Florida, it looks wild. Verbatim the TN Valley got a solid covering of at least 2 inches but with a tad better timing something big could come from that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The ensemble control run looks awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I need Webber to come in here and give me a two page essay on why the energy in the southwest will come out vs. hang back. I think the Euro is onto something, and the GFS is following. One net positive, the cold won't likely be a problem. Another net positive, is the PV won't normally come that far south, meaning in the end whatever does come out won't likely be completely suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Let me go get him... brb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I asked LC last night if he thought the Euro holding the energy back was its bias at play and he shot back with that it didn't hold it back. I told him I'd have to look again, b/c what I thought it showed (granted at a quick glance) was a northern stream vort that amplified, holding most of the energy back in the southwest. I looked again, confirmed it, but never went back. Wonder why he thought it didn't hold it back when there was a multiple contour cutoff just sitting and spinning there?? lol Yeah the 0z Euro did hold back the energy and squashed it. Today's 12z GFS did the same thing. I'm not sure why he would think it didn't. Maybe he was looking at yesterday's 12z Euro. It ejected the energy out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If we have this look verify, and get out of it without scoring in the TN Valley, it might be time to hang it up for the winter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ok... from Eric: Sure thing!! If you scroll thru the "run comparison" of the EPS on tropical tidbits. it's pretty obvious it has been digging03:47 PM - 23 Jan 15 the energy over the NE Pacific & southwestern US in the southern branch of the jet way too far to the southwest 03:47 PM - 23 Jan 15 I think one issue here is (not necessarily the model's fault, but it's partially a result of the utilization of ensemble guidance) 03:48 PM - 23 Jan 15 is the height field over the far North Pacific sector (extreme NE Russia, Aleutians, Alaska, etc) has been progged way to high over 03:49 PM - 23 Jan 15 and over again in the medium range, & although the ensemble is right in the sense that we are seeing some significant anticylonic wave03:50 PM - 23 Jan 15 breaking & raising of the heights, it's just a function of using a large ensemble, that much of this appears to get "smeared"03:51 PM - 23 Jan 15 and thus as you draw closer to the verification period, various, significantly harder to detect short wave disturbances 03:51 PM - 23 Jan 15 turn what was once a solid, higher height field into a block of swiss cheese, dotted w/ more widespread troughs 03:52 PM - 23 Jan 15 that weaken the anomalous Rex Block signature and of course allow the southern branch disturbances to thus come further north03:53 PM - 23 Jan 15 & are thus less liable to get stuck & cut-off from the mainstream flow, this may not continue as far as I'm concerned, however 03:54 PM - 23 Jan 15 this has been a very persistent trend & feature that is worth noting over the last few weeks 03:54 PM - 23 Jan 15 Hope that makes sense 03:56 PM - 23 Jan 15 Whew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 nice work Steve. Just took a look at the EPS individuals and all I can say is WOW. There are quite a few doozies included. Just eyeballing the clown maps and I see the following (approximation) 25/51 mean members showing 6+ for KTRI 24/51 for KTYS 16/51 for KBNA Really good signal that continues to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ok... from Eric: Sure thing!! If you scroll thru the "run comparison" of the EPS on tropical tidbits. it's pretty obvious it has been digging 03:47 PM - 23 Jan 15 the energy over the NE Pacific & southwestern US in the southern branch of the jet way too far to the southwest 03:47 PM - 23 Jan 15 I think one issue here is (not necessarily the model's fault, but it's partially a result of the utilization of ensemble guidance) 03:48 PM - 23 Jan 15 is the height field over the far North Pacific sector (extreme NE Russia, Aleutians, Alaska, etc) has been progged way to high over 03:49 PM - 23 Jan 15 and over again in the medium range, & although the ensemble is right in the sense that we are seeing some significant anticylonic wave 03:50 PM - 23 Jan 15 breaking & raising of the heights, it's just a function of using a large ensemble, that much of this appears to get "smeared" 03:51 PM - 23 Jan 15 and thus as you draw closer to the verification period, various, significantly harder to detect short wave disturbances 03:51 PM - 23 Jan 15 turn what was once a solid, higher height field into a block of swiss cheese, dotted w/ more widespread troughs 03:52 PM - 23 Jan 15 that weaken the anomalous Rex Block signature and of course allow the southern branch disturbances to thus come further north 03:53 PM - 23 Jan 15 & are thus less liable to get stuck & cut-off from the mainstream flow, this may not continue as far as I'm concerned, however 03:54 PM - 23 Jan 15 this has been a very persistent trend & feature that is worth noting over the last few weeks 03:54 PM - 23 Jan 15 Hope that makes sense 03:56 PM - 23 Jan 15 Whew... Who is eric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sorry... that was Eric Webb or webber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 JB Blog Headline - "Euro Threatening Epic Opening to February" To be fair, cold is the missing ingredient down this way often. Let's get it in here and see what can make it out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Energy wants to get stuck on the 18z GFS once again, it will be interesting to see what that looks like on modeling in about 3 days or so. This run does prove the modeling has a sense of humor though. After we are blasted with bitterly cold air, while a cutoff spins out west for several days, it finally gets a nudge, opens up, initializes another perfect track Miller A along the gulf coast, hits us with, yep you guess it, rain...... after it warms up just enough for liquid, then slaps us with flurries from a northern stream vort the day after. lol It's times like this I am so glad we are 8+ days away. At least the cold appears to be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ok... from Eric: Sure thing!! If you scroll thru the "run comparison" of the EPS on tropical tidbits. it's pretty obvious it has been digging 03:47 PM - 23 Jan 15 the energy over the NE Pacific & southwestern US in the southern branch of the jet way too far to the southwest 03:47 PM - 23 Jan 15 I think one issue here is (not necessarily the model's fault, but it's partially a result of the utilization of ensemble guidance) 03:48 PM - 23 Jan 15 is the height field over the far North Pacific sector (extreme NE Russia, Aleutians, Alaska, etc) has been progged way to high over 03:49 PM - 23 Jan 15 and over again in the medium range, & although the ensemble is right in the sense that we are seeing some significant anticylonic wave 03:50 PM - 23 Jan 15 breaking & raising of the heights, it's just a function of using a large ensemble, that much of this appears to get "smeared" 03:51 PM - 23 Jan 15 and thus as you draw closer to the verification period, various, significantly harder to detect short wave disturbances 03:51 PM - 23 Jan 15 turn what was once a solid, higher height field into a block of swiss cheese, dotted w/ more widespread troughs 03:52 PM - 23 Jan 15 that weaken the anomalous Rex Block signature and of course allow the southern branch disturbances to thus come further north 03:53 PM - 23 Jan 15 & are thus less liable to get stuck & cut-off from the mainstream flow, this may not continue as far as I'm concerned, however 03:54 PM - 23 Jan 15 this has been a very persistent trend & feature that is worth noting over the last few weeks 03:54 PM - 23 Jan 15 Hope that makes sense 03:56 PM - 23 Jan 15 Whew... Thanks for putting that together Dacula! I know that had to be a lot of copy and pasting! I think I understand what Eric is saying but in laymen's terms. I think he is talking about the models bending the ridge out over the Pacific too much the wrong way. Like the ridge being modeled takes on the shape of an upside down U that leans to the right or positively tilted(and is sometimes a closed ridge). This forces shortwave energy to move back to the southwest and cutoff. Then over time the models correct the ridge to be straight up and down in latitude with no leaning and shortwave energy can move more freely to the east. This seems to be what happens with the energy in a few days that cuts off and moves back to the southwest. Is that the way that you interpreted that Dacula or anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Haven't looked at the models very closely yet. This winter the lakes cutters and energy modeled in the southwest have rarely verified. Bet it comes out in pieces and leaves a small bit behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Good thread,thanks Dacula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Haven't looked at the models very closely yet. This winter the lakes cutters and energy modeled in the southwest have rarely verified. Bet it comes out in pieces and leaves a small bit behind. At 500 it looks like a great setup for overrunning potential on most modeling, especially if the PV doesn't drop as far south as currently modeled. How many times out of 10 does it verify further north. I am thinking 9, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't look now, but Ducala's thread is bringing the mojo back tonight, and the setup is within 200 hours. Nashville would likely be on the edge of a great snow with what it's showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It sure looks like a sweet setup around 192, check out that ridging. Will definitely dislodge some crazy cold air if that verifies. +PNA, -NAO, split flow. Going to be painful if we don't score once or twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 GFS was a big hit again for especially western 2/3rd of the valley, and it still looked wonky with it's far north track with a big HP sprawling over Minnesota and another above Michigan. I would think with a 1040 and 1035 HP in those spots we'd see a bit more suppression instead of the track from Louisiana to NE Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Euro is kicking it out also now but is it the biased look the euro does?Holding the energy back to the SW to long?I thought both the euro and gfs either way was in a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The Euro is kicking it out also now but is it the biased look the euro does?Holding the energy back to the SW to long?I thought both the euro and gfs either way was in a step in the right direction At this juncture, I am just pleased to see the signature of a system still there in subsequent model runs; I got about an inch or so of heavy gloppy wet snow over night; lets keep our fingers crossed for a good state-wide system or two for February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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