paulythegun Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's a really tough one to make any calls. Unfortunately it's another "complicated" evolution. I don't think suppression is much of a worry. If there is no stream interaction it could be 2 separate events with the juicier component missing south. I really don't know. Ensembles and ops are currently showing the kitchen sink. This guy sitting here off the coast (GEFS mean look below) as the moisture ejects from the gulf reminds me of several previous events this month and last month that looked like ice for a while but ultimately became cold rain...followed by a cold air hit that came way too late (see 1050 there). Happy to be talked off the ledge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Day 8 to 10 of the 12z GGEM are... interesting re coastal low 192 -- 1015mb MSLP east of JAX 204 -- 1012mb MSLP east of SAV 216 -- 1009mb MSLP southeast off ILM 228 -- 1003mb MSLP east of ORF 240 -- finally moves NE and out to sea ETA: Precip finally makes it into DC metro at hr 216, 228 decent, but better for about BR and east... 240 as low pulls away everyone still gets some snow Looks like a decent snowstorm for most (better for eastern sections of LWX)... but the lollygagging low is a bit much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Pretty sure we don't want the surface low in northeast PA like it is on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro looks good Sunday night.. if it was May and you like severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This guy sitting here off the coast (GEFS mean look below) as the moisture ejects from the gulf reminds me of several previous events this month and last month that looked like ice for a while but ultimately became cold rain...followed by a cold air hit that came way too late (see 1050 there). Happy to be talked off the ledge though. It's definitely a problem. It's not a great setup. Euro has a 997 over WVA and a 1027 over bermuda. lol. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12z ECMWF hr 144, 992mb over NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's definitely a problem. It's not a great setup. Euro has a 997 over WVA and a 1027 over bermuda. lol. ugh Perfect for a recurving hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is all like...congrats Erie and Buffalo. F U DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is all like...congrats Erie and Buffalo. F U DC. It did shift to the east some at least, at least when it was down in WV. I could care less to see it bullseye us now. ETA: Does a track through the northeast like that happen very often? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is woundup and west at Day 5-6? Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 156... shift it 800 miles SW and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is woundup and west at Day 5-6? Perfect! yeah i thought that too too bad that does't work for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro is woundup and west at Day 5-6? Perfect! The problem is so is the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 yeah i thought that too too bad that does't work for us.. The real irony is we have the first semblance of a -nao all winter and we may be staring at a wet runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Eh, maybe so, but all too often around here we're "waiting for the cutter to set up the next good possibility for us." Not trying to denigrate what you're saying, and there may be some truth to it, but it's a bit dangerous around here to hope for that (especially when the NAO is not cooperating). As for the particular event, it is disappointing (on the GFS and Euro) to not see that big high sort of push down a bit more on the eastern side to keep the low from going too far north like some depictions had shown. But, as has been said several times, there's awhile yet to go and I'm sure things will change back and forth in some manner. I am not arguing with the frustration, I feel it too, but the NAO not cooperating is why we may need a cutter to score a flush hit. We have some things working for us, the pattern isnt awful, there will be cold available due to a decent EPO/PNA combo. The trough axis is pretty good also. What is against us is again an awful AO/NAO combo. So any storm that amps too soon is likely to cut, amp too late and its a strung out POS not worth tracking. So how do we get a big hit in this pattern. Either we need perfect timing, a high to come along as just the perfect time ahead of an STJ wave. Thats an option. Another way to get it done would be a phased storm but for the phasing to happen exactly where we need it. Less likely. Another option would be to get a cutter to drop the thermal boundary behind it and then get the next storm to develop at just the right time. These are all viable options. its also not a perfect setup, if the storms are not spaced well one could cut then the next get squashed. Space too far apart and they can all cut. Its not the ideal setup (thanks +NAO) but its one we can score with if we can get any luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 It's definitely a problem. It's not a great setup. Euro has a 997 over WVA and a 1027 over bermuda. lol. ugh how did this happen. FEb 1-3 was suppose to be arctic. I am not buying this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am not arguing with the frustration, I feel it too, but the NAO not cooperating is why we may need a cutter to score a flush hit. We have some things working for us, the pattern isnt awful, there will be cold available due to a decent EPO/PNA combo. The trough axis is pretty good also. What is against us is again an awful AO/NAO combo. So any storm that amps too soon is likely to cut, amp too late and its a strung out POS not worth tracking. So how do we get a big hit in this pattern. Either we need perfect timing, a high to come along as just the perfect time ahead of an STJ wave. Thats an option. Another way to get it done would be a phased storm but for the phasing to happen exactly where we need it. Less likely. Another option would be to get a cutter to drop the thermal boundary behind it and then get the next storm to develop at just the right time. These are all viable options. its also not a perfect setup, if the storms are not spaced well one could cut then the next get squashed. Space too far apart and they can all cut. Its not the ideal setup (thanks +NAO) but its one we can score with if we can get any luck. This is why I believe Feb 1-2 is our best chance, even though it doesn't look that way on the surface currently. NAO should be neutral or slightly negative around this time, so this may be our chance. A cutter in our only -nao of the winter really would be a slap in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GLL shows up in time to wreck what had looked promising at hr 192... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am not arguing with the frustration, I feel it too, but the NAO not cooperating is why we may need a cutter to score a flush hit. We have some things working for us, the pattern isnt awful, there will be cold available due to a decent EPO/PNA combo. The trough axis is pretty good also. What is against us is again an awful AO/NAO combo. So any storm that amps too soon is likely to cut, amp too late and its a strung out POS not worth tracking. So how do we get a big hit in this pattern. Either we need perfect timing, a high to come along as just the perfect time ahead of an STJ wave. Thats an option. Another way to get it done would be a phased storm but for the phasing to happen exactly where we need it. Less likely. Another option would be to get a cutter to drop the thermal boundary behind it and then get the next storm to develop at just the right time. These are all viable options. its also not a perfect setup, if the storms are not spaced well one could cut then the next get squashed. Space too far apart and they can all cut. Its not the ideal setup (thanks +NAO) but its one we can score with if we can get any luck. I see what you're saying and overall I agree with how things could happen with the hand we've been dealt. It is frustrating and the overall setup, while not completely hostile per se, leaves us with non-ideal possibilities to score a good event. Sorry if my comment sounded overly negative toward you, not my intent, but I admit it was written with an element of exasperation. Too many 35 and cold rain events here this year I guess, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 how did this happen. FEb 1-3 was suppose to be arctic. I am not buying this It will be Arctic in that time period. Problem is, it will be Tropical on the 2nd for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GGEM's not that bad plenty of time I just would hope to get an answer one way or the other sooner or later, but we know that won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Warm/wet, cold/dry, with intermittent 1-3" clippers is our seasonal trend these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Warm/wet, cold/dry, with intermittent 1-3" clippers is our seasonal trend these days. Nickel and diming our way to climo, baby, nickel and diming our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 I still havent seen a modeled snowstorm for us via a coastal this season with 5 days or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I still havent seen a modeled snowstorm for us via a coastal this season with 5 days or less Word. I am also not someone who is at all happy with a "nickel and dime" to climo winter for snowfall. Past time for us to get a legit area-wide watch/warning level storm, otherwise, if we can't get one this season, this winter sucks on turbo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro looks good Sunday night.. if it was May and you like severe weather. Screw the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 i feel pretty good about this one. I think the Euro is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Might be time to embrace the horror. With the AO and NAO positive, we cut our probabilities way, way down for a meaningful event. And this has been our pattern since December. So much for trying to predict the -NAO last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 i feel pretty good about this one. I think the Euro is wrong it has to be, for no other reason than it gives Boston almost 1.5" qpf of rain actually, I do feel good about this one and think it may be our best shot of the season, so far and to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Word. I am also not someone who is at all happy with a "nickel and dime" to climo winter for snowfall. Past time for us to get a legit area-wide watch/warning level storm, otherwise, if we can't get one this season, this winter sucks on turbo. Yeah, I agree. I'm happy with small events in November or December, but they're getting old.... I'd like to see a bigger storm. Not a single winter that lacked a warning criteria storm in the past 13 years has been a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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