tcutter Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HM is bullish on twitter FWIW. Given the seasonal trend toward easterly more deamplified solutions, I'm not overly concerned about progs showing a wound-up cutter at this point. are you able to give us his twitter handle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 are you able to give us his twitter handle? @antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 H5 is quite different than 6z. 6z had more of a phase with slight ridging in front so it's an easy west track. 12z is showing a discrete ns vort that grabs a piece of the energy in the sw but doesn't phase. Yeah, the low basically forms in the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Northern stream vort doesn't dig enough to keep us on the cold side this run. Looks like another difficult situation coming up. The mitch rule is in play again. So far this season in general, northern stream vorts have ended up further south than d4+ leads. Watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 H5 is quite different than 6z. 6z had more of a phase with slight ridging in front so it's an easy west track. 12z is showing a discrete ns vort that grabs a piece of the energy in the sw but doesn't phase. I hadn't looked at 6z but you're right, totally different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This winter has been extremely frustrating. For a long while, (after the strong -AO in November), the globals did *not* have anything in the medium-long range for us...and they were correct. Now more recently we've had some legitimate shots progged in the medium range, only to have that feeling drawing closer to the event that you're favorite team scored a game winning TD, only to have the call on the field reversed. Either way, both of these outlooks (AO and NAO) continue to be 'not encouraging' going into the first 10 days of February. Ugh -- if we're not going to have winter, let's just get this thing over with.. Is that nao graph trying to go negative in the wake of the current storm? I get that it's expected to go positive down the road, but I remember reading that when it switches from pos to neg, or vice versa, that's when we have a better chance at a coastal. I guess I'm just trying to find something that gives us hope for the possible Rodent Storm. Then again, considering all the ways that the energy can come out of the southwest this far out, might make my question pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Seems like that energy that's in the southwest is wreaking havoc on the solutions that result. Depending on how the NS shortwave interacts--or doesn't interact--with it. Not sure what the best scenario would be for us to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Is that nao graph trying to go negative in the wake of the current storm? I get that it's expected to go positive down the road, but I remember reading that when it switches from pos to neg, or vice versa, that's when we have a better chance at a coastal. I guess I'm just trying to find something that gives us hope for the possible Rodent Storm. Then again, considering all the ways that the energy can come out of the southwest this far out, might make my question pointless. A -nao is there on monday. Not a perfect one but the mean height pattern definitely says don't hug the west track solutions. They are on the table but so is a favorable track. Everything hinges on how far south the ns vort digs. The strength will depend on how much interaction with the energy in the SW. IMO this one has decent potential for an area wide wsw. If the track ends up less than favorable we will likely get some frozen unless it whiffs south. Not seeing that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is definitely true... I feel like this has been DC's year so far. Those of us around BWI really have been getting the shaft... This is a DC winter.. for everyone NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm not sure that BWI area folks have been shafted. I have more than double of DCAs official measurement. And BWI is nearly 3" above them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 @antmasiello THANK YOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We better get some frozen with this storm because I don't want to see bare ground when it's zero Tues. morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 A -nao is there on monday. Not a perfect one but the mean height pattern definitely says don't hug the west track solutions. They are on the table but so is a favorable track. Everything hinges on how far south the ns vort digs. The strength will depend on how much interaction with the energy in the SW. IMO this one has decent potential for an area wide wsw. If the track ends up less than favorable we will likely get some frozen unless it whiffs south. Not seeing that yet. Looks very good, 1st gfs track was right.storm should go s outh of us. thanks bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Because of the euros new left bias...I'm thinking I want it to ride the spine of the Appalachians for a few runs...then come Saturday ride over top of us....then BAM!!! Full blown snowstorm Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GFS looks a little chilly in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That's some interesting look in the 12Z GFS beyond the Feb. 1-2 potential event, I have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Wow, GFS in the LR... Not like 'big storm wow,' but certainly 'interesting look with continuous potential for the next couple of weeks', wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I am solely focused on feb 1-2 event on GFS. Looking at 500 mb we have ridging over Greenland and a split PV trapped beneath the ridge in east canada. Not going to sweat the surface map details at this point, but I would not punt the Feb 1-2 event with that blocky look. In fact, that look has me rather bullish at this point. I imagine shortwave will dig more and would be less likely to cut on future runs if the GFS keeps a similar look over greenland and east canada. Also, this is the medium range where the new GFS seems to get jumpy on the surface from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 12z GGEM looks intriguing at 120... waiting for better maps 132 -- snowing (looks like a snow profile) at DCA... 1011 L in E OH (primary?) while there is a 1010 L (secondary?) in W GA 138 -- looks like barely snow at DCA, could be mixed bag... Def different from last night's run, which had a LWX snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GEFS are evenly split. The camp with a stronger and more dominant NS storm are rain. The other camp looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GEFS are evenly split. The camp with a stronger and more dominant NS storm are rain. The other camp looks really nice. More snowy than 6z. Some of those look really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 More snowy than 6z. Some of those look really nice. A few snow to rains mixed in there as well. IMO- we'll probably get some frozen out of this one. It may not be pretty but we won't know much for a couple more days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 GEFS are evenly split. The camp with a stronger and more dominant NS storm are rain. The other camp looks really nice. Yes, wow at that look. Suppression looks like a bigger concern than a western cutter type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Arctic dump of cold air incoming on 12z GGEM at 150 in the Plains... -30c 850s in N MN -18c 850s Feb 3rd at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Day 8 to 10 of the 12z GGEM are... interesting re coastal low 192 -- 1015mb MSLP east of JAX 204 -- 1012mb MSLP east of SAV 216 -- 1009mb MSLP southeast off ILM 228 -- 1003mb MSLP east of ORF 240 -- finally moves NE and out to sea ETA: Precip finally makes it into DC metro at hr 216, 228 decent, but better for about BR and east... 240 as low pulls away everyone still gets some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yes, wow at that look. Suppression looks like a bigger concern than a western cutter type It's a really tough one to make any calls. Unfortunately it's another "complicated" evolution. I don't think suppression is much of a worry. If there is no stream interaction it could be 2 separate events with the juicier component missing south. I really don't know. Ensembles and ops are currently showing the kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We don't want what the gfs and ggem ops are currently showing. Slp tracking into OH never works in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Day 8 to 10 of the 12z GGEM are... interesting re coastal low 192 -- 1015mb MSLP east of JAX 204 -- 1012mb MSLP east of SAV 216 -- 1009mb MSLP southeast off ILM 228 -- 1003mb MSLP east of ORF 240 -- finally moves NE and out to sea ETA: Precip finally makes it into DC metro at hr 216, 228 decent for about BR and east Yes, GFS also sort of futzes about with a couple of coastal lows between 222-288. I would have thought that one will be consolidated and one lost (if I was guessing, it will occur in the opposite order), but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We don't want what the gfs and ggem ops are currently showing. Slp tracking into OH never works in these parts. GEFS mean is not bad, but clearly still has one low in the OH valley/Lakes. Primary then takes over in VA. Lots of potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We don't want what the gfs and ggem ops are currently showing. Slp tracking into OH never works in these parts.Can't completely agree there. Depends on where you are. A low tracking into the eastern OV can produce good storms out here. Won't be all snow, but I don't care about that. Gotta have the cad though.Dec 26, 2012 and Dec 8, 2013 are pretty good ex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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