mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 162 -- still snowing at DCA, system is moving away... 996mb MSLP east of ACY ~200 miles or so Snow map is ridiculous that's OK then, just tell me how it looks for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 that's OK then, just tell me how it looks for mby Hope I can post this, if not, please let me know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 8-12" thank you, may I have another? j/k thx Yoda, you da' man tonight now I can finally get to sleep early and get ready for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 thank you, may I have another? j/k thx Yoda, you da' man tonight now I can finally get to sleep early and get ready for this one I edited my post and put the map up there so you can see better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 144 -- 1008mb MSLP C AL/MS border; 1036 H in Quebec with 1046 Hi behind it to the NW in Central Canada On the B and W maps at 144 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Gotta read further but this is going to track like our soaker only cold air this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If the euro show it tonight does it make us feel good or uneasy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If the euro show it tonight does it make us feel good or uneasy? It will give us 6 sleepless nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If the euro show it tonight does it make us feel good or uneasy? EURO at 144 has a 1009mb SLP in northern TN, but decent CAD it appears for us looking at the 850mb level 168 - 988mb SLP near the S ME coast ETA: Brief ice to cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 6z GFS has two heavy rainstorms in a row - go us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Euro ensemble mean takes the Groundhog Day low overhead it looks like. Control takes it below us like the GGEM. I'm riding the control. It did well with the Miller A rainstorm last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm riding whatever shows us getting an area-wide WSW-criteria snowfall. We need this. Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm riding whatever shows us getting an area-wide WSW-criteria snowfall. We need this. Bad. GFS shows an apps runner to match euro storm then shows a coastal, which indicates mixed pref for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 EURO at 144 has a 1009mb SLP in northern TN, but decent CAD it appears for us looking at the 850mb level 168 - 988mb SLP near the S ME coast ETA: Brief ice to cold rain Screw the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If feb 1 cuts it could set up the storm behind it. We have several stj waves to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 You'd think this weekend would be a possible cad situation and mixed bag event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If feb 1 cuts it could set up the storm behind it. We have several stj waves to work with. Eh, maybe so, but all too often around here we're "waiting for the cutter to set up the next good possibility for us." Not trying to denigrate what you're saying, and there may be some truth to it, but it's a bit dangerous around here to hope for that (especially when the NAO is not cooperating). As for the particular event, it is disappointing (on the GFS and Euro) to not see that big high sort of push down a bit more on the eastern side to keep the low from going too far north like some depictions had shown. But, as has been said several times, there's awhile yet to go and I'm sure things will change back and forth in some manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HM is bullish on twitter FWIW. Given the seasonal trend toward easterly more deamplified solutions, I'm not overly concerned about progs showing a wound-up cutter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This winter has been extremely frustrating. For a long while, (after the strong -AO in November), the globals did *not* have anything in the medium-long range for us...and they were correct. Now more recently we've had some legitimate shots progged in the medium range, only to have that feeling drawing closer to the event that you're favorite team scored a game winning TD, only to have the call on the field reversed. Either way, both of these outlooks (AO and NAO) continue to be 'not encouraging' going into the first 10 days of February. Ugh -- if we're not going to have winter, let's just get this thing over with.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This winter has been extremely frustrating. For a long while, (after the strong -AO in November), the globals did *not* have anything in the medium-long range for us...and they were correct. Now more recently we've had some legitimate shots progged in the medium range, only to have that feeling drawing closer to the event that you're favorite team scored a game winning TD, only to have the call on the field reversed. Either way, both of these outlooks (AO and NAO) continue to be 'not encouraging' going into the first 10 days of February. Ugh -- if we're not going to have winter, let's just get this thing over with.. This must be completely based on location in the area. IAD is running a bit *ahead* of season-to-date averages, while BWI is a couple of inches short. It's not been a great winter, sure, but for many, it's nowhere near a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This must be completely based on location in the area. IAD is running a bit *ahead* of season-to-date averages, while BWI is a couple of inches short. It's not been a great winter, sure, but for many, it's nowhere near a disaster. No, absolutely not a disaster. I'm up over 6" of snow for the season, which isn't far off the median through the end of January. It's all relative though -- coming off a great winter with the strong hints of an El Nino that wasn't. But you're right, this wasn't 2011-12. Still, in any winter, I'd like to see at least one 6-12"+ event. Wouldn't we all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This must be completely based on location in the area. IAD is running a bit *ahead* of season-to-date averages, while BWI is a couple of inches short. It's not been a great winter, sure, but for many, it's nowhere near a disaster. This is definitely true... I feel like this has been DC's year so far. Those of us around BWI really have been getting the shaft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 This is definitely true... I feel like this has been DC's year so far. Those of us around BWI really have been getting the shaft...I have 7.3" in Dundalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HM is bullish on twitter FWIW. Given the seasonal trend toward easterly more deamplified solutions, I'm not overly concerned about progs showing a wound-up cutter at this point. do you have a link please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I have 7.3" in Dundalk. I admit my 5.5 number is probably low because I tend not to measure dustings and we've had several of those around here... I'm probably closer to 6" in reality. Still... BWI is at only 72% of its to-date average while IAD is at 102%. I feel like in these weak events, there's been more of DC-IAD getting 3-4 while BWI gets 1-2. Not a huge difference, but it seems like it sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I admit my 5.5 number is probably low because I tend not to measure dustings and we've had several of those around here... I'm probably closer to 6" in reality. Still... BWI is at only 72% of its to-date average while IAD is at 102%. I feel like in these weak events, there's been more of DC-IAD getting 3-4 while BWI gets 1-2. Not a huge difference, but it seems like it sometimes.I have two 3" events though as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I have two 3" events though as well. Well - as you can see from my sig, I have a 2.5 and a 2... I guess you've done marginally better than I have in those events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 HM is bullish on twitter FWIW. Given the seasonal trend toward easterly more deamplified solutions, I'm not overly concerned about progs showing a wound-up cutter at this point. I was going to post the exact same thing......well, in weenie talk anyway, I'm going with what the Canadians think of their atmosphere in 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I was going to post the exact same thing......well, in weenie talk anyway, I'm going with what the Canadians think of their atmosphere in 6 days RGEM rocked with this debacle, so what the hey. Oh Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not seeing how this can cut on the gfs...famous last words I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Not seeing how this can cut on the gfs...famous last words I know. H5 is quite different than 6z. 6z had more of a phase with slight ridging in front so it's an easy west track. 12z is showing a discrete ns vort that grabs a piece of the energy in the sw but doesn't phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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