StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Pretty sure no guidance was forecasting a record high in DC today. Yes, it looks a lot like last year... minus the frequent snow events. The cold last year was transient. Cold for a few days followed by moderation, except last year we had snow cover to enhance the cold and temper the moderations. W/o some blocking, I think we see some cold days followed by a 2 days of 50F while a storm tracks to our north. Unless one or two of those storms cut under us, then I don't see enough sustained cold to erase the + departures we are building now. It'll be an interesting end to the month to see how it all shakes out. Most short term modeling had us in the low/mid 60s..all it takes is a small deviation in cloud cover to change that. Not sure how that's relevant? I guess we'll see what happens. I'm more worried about cold/dry/snowless than I am about a cutter, assuming guidance is anywhere close to correct. I think we're just emotionally scarred and thinking irrationally from the torture over last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 You realize IAD was like -2 for JAN right Don't pay a lot of attention to what happens at IAD, but what's your point? Winchester was about dead even in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I would agree with you. The extreme cold portrayed would cause DC area to have highs around 20, lows around 0. It will turn out highs in low 30's and lows around 20. Pretty embarassing stuff that atmopsheric science prediction cannot adjust to what has actually been occurring. I think we expect too much from models....the atmosphere is really complex...whether US, or Japan or UK or Europe or Canada, we are all pretty much in the same general place in terms of the science...And the private sector hasn't done anything noteworthy in terms of modeling...I don't think it matters how much money you throw at it..there is a limit to what models can do..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Don't pay a lot of attention to what happens at IAD, but what's your point? Winchester was about dead even in Jan. I think your data is wonky..this was January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Don't pay a lot of attention to what happens at IAD, but what's your point? Winchester was about dead even in Jan. KOKV is currently +26 on highs and -34 on lows...totals. Through 8 days that works out to -1 avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Why should that continue? Not one piece of guidance suggests February will finish with a +departure. We've now got tropical forcing approaching the dateline with the Walker Cell having migrated east as a result of the last round of MJO forcing. The +AAM response in the tropics is now entrenched. Who cares what happened 2-3 weeks ago? There wasn't anything, forcing wise, supporting a significant, persistent Arctic outbreak here. Even back in early January, the tropical forcings were kinda meh. Brewer Dobson forcing has been derailed by the Southern Hemisphere SSTA. All we have going for us is the central-west based el nino'ish look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 And IAD and DCA were -2 to -4 F as of the end of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Brewer Dobson forcing has been derailed by the Southern Hemisphere SSTA. All we have going for us is the central-west based el nino'ish look. What? The Brewer Dobson Circulation is a low frequency, meridional cell(s) in the stratosphere that transports O^3 poleward, weakening the thermal wind dynamics that maintain the PV up there. The BDC has been quite strong this year, actually. Furthermore, how are SH SSTs related to anything on a relevant scale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Most short term modeling had us in the low/mid 60s..all it takes is a small deviation in cloud cover to change that. Not sure how that's relevant? I guess we'll see what happens. I'm more worried about cold/dry/snowless than I am about a cutter, assuming guidance is anywhere close to correct. I think you're just emotionally scarred from the last few weeks. I am too, haha. There's a pretty big difference between low / mid 60s and 69F record high. I know it's sensitive to the cloud-cover, but it's still a bit of a bust... and at very short range. Why then are you going to put so much faith in d5+ guidance, when it has failed consistently all winter long? I'd be happy to be wrong if it meant one or two decent cold-powder storms. Cold/dry would just continue the disaster of this winter. If DC is infact even (or slightly below) at this point, then you may very well finish BN. I, however, sense a lost cause out here. How it could be so much warmer relative to normal here is a mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think once you take care of outliers, and smooth the data, DC/Balt metro was basically -1 to -2 for January, and +3 to +4 for December..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think okv's data is wrong. I've seen multiple posts questioning the dailies over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Jan 2014. Not this Jan. I think your data is wonky..this was January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Jan 2014. Not this Jan. My bad..looks like -2 to -4 for January 2015: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 KOKV is currently +26 on highs and -34 on lows...totals. Through 8 days that works out to -1 avg. Actually this is in error...its a -0.5 for the daily avg. Also, using the same method, KOKV was -43 for highs and -41 for lows for January....-1.35 for the avg daily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think okv's data is wrong. I've seen multiple posts questioning the dailies over time.I think a calculation is in error somewhere. The daily numbers look ok.Edit: KOKV temps are often suspect....many times running 3 to 5 degrees higher than what I record here, not 10 air miles away. A local weather station, with data posted to the web, near KOKV has Jan at -2.4 and Feb through yesterday at -3.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 KOKV is currently +26 on highs and -34 on lows...totals. Through 8 days that works out to -1 avg. We've got very different data. Including today's high (59F) I've got OKV at +38F on highs and -20F on lows. That's +2F. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/stephens-city-va/22655/february-weather/9362_pc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Actually this is in error...its a -0.5 for the daily avg. Also, using the same method, KOKV was -43 for highs and -41 for lows for January....-1.35 for the avg daily My jan numbers at OKV are -35F on highs and +32 on lows. That's just about even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 There's a pretty big difference between low / mid 60s and 69F record high. I know it's sensitive to the cloud-cover, but it's still a bit of a bust... and at very short range. Why then are you going to put so much faith in d5+ guidance, when it has failed consistently all winter long? Guidance has not "failed all winter long". That's mostly weenie hyperbole. These supposed failures are all in reference to a few scattered fantasy land solutions with weak/iffy ensemble support. The upcoming blasts have almost unanimous agreement. I'd be happy to be wrong if it meant one or two decent cold-powder storms. Cold/dry would just continue the disaster of this winter. If DC is infact even (or slightly below) at this point, then you may very well finish BN. I, however, sense a lost cause out here. How it could be so much warmer relative to normal here is a mystery. Again, I think your data source is bit wonky. Even if it's not, calling for a +departure February in your area sounds silly to me, in the face of the latest available guidance. I suspect you'll finish below normal as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 We've got very different data. Including today's high (59F) I've got OKV at +38F on highs and -20F on lows. That's +2F. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/stephens-city-va/22655/february-weather/9362_pc I used http://i.wund.com/history/airport/KOKV/2015/1/8/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Which has different data and normals. The +38 and -20 would be +18 total, divided by 2, divided by 8.....+1.125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think a calculation is in error somewhere. The daily numbers look ok. Edit: KOKV temps are often suspect....many times running 3 to 5 degrees higher than what I record here, not 10 air miles away. A local weather station, with data posted to the web, near KOKV has Jan at -2.4 and Feb through yesterday at -3.4. Oh no, not another weather station debate. Maybe the sensor at okv is near the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I used http://i.wund.com/history/airport/KOKV/2015/1/8/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Which has different data and normals. The +38 and -20 would be +18 total, divided by 2, divided by 8.....+1.125 Why are you diving by 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Guidance has not "failed all winter long". That's mostly weenie hyperbole. These supposed failures are all in reference to a few scattered fantasy land solutions with weak/iffy ensemble support. The upcoming blasts have almost unanimous agreement. Again, I think your data source is bit wonky. Even if it's not, calling for a +departure February in your area sounds silly to me, in the face of the latest available guidance. I suspect you'll finish below normal as well. The guidance has been way, way off for the past month on the cold. I'm talking at days 4+. Inside of that I guess it's been ok.....although at that point I might as well just look out the window. This upcoming cold blast might be legit, we'll see, but the medium range guidance has been pretty suspect since New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 My jan numbers at OKV are -35F on highs and +32 on lows. That's just about even. Does it really matter what OKV shows regardless? It's not a first order station so you might as well look at all the COOP/COCORAH stations around you to get a real picture. Again, IAD was -4 F as of the end of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not trying to pick on you EastCoast NPZ, but you are having a very difficult time grasping the concept that it has not been warm and is not going to be warm anytime in the near future even if the models are way too cold in their depiction. Near future meaning 12-18 day period. You need to look beyond the models failing at day 5+ and look at the pattern we are heading into. Everyone agrees the models have been way too cold in the 5-7 day but the kind of cold that is being advertised has a lot of room for error where temps can still verify way below average. Let's just say for conversational purposes that both the GFS and Euro are running 12 degrees too warm for the period this upcoming Thursday the 12 through Monday the 16th. We all agree that is very possible, however that still means it will be very much below average. This debate has nothing to do with what snow we've had or potential snowfall. From where we stand right and from what guidance tells us moving forward your prediction of an AN February has a less then 1 in 10 chance of happening. The only thing that can save you is an absolute torch the last week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Why are you diving by 2? How do you determine a daily avg? You add the high and low and divide by two. Works the same with departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The guidance has been way, way off for the past month on the cold. I'm talking at days 4+. Inside of that I guess it's been ok.....although at that point I might as well just look out the window. This upcoming cold blast might be legit, we'll see, but the medium range guidance has been pretty suspect since New Years. I watch the modeling very closely, and I haven't observed anything like that. I've seen a few modeled blasts with weak ensemble support fall apart in the middle ranges, but who would put faith in those solutions anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 LOL...now we are rating the quality of the forum....and basing it on the Winchester posters. That's rich. Too bad we ruined the quality scientific discussion that goes on in this forum. Some Winchester posters might care about the opinions of others, but don't count me in that tally. Keep on chasing your fantasies. I love a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Some of you need to move. Or you will end up being JI. just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 This is the February mid- to long-range threats and discussion thread right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Quality posts like this make the cut around here, huh? I was mostly referring to EastCoast and BethesdaBoy going back and forth... calm yoself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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