kurtstack Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Huge gradient lately undoubtedly aided by the snowpack north to some degree. It's almost 50 degrees warmer here than in Boston heh. This current pattern is fairly flat compared to upcoming so doubt we escape some shivering.. unless it's precipitating I'd be cautious of DCA having a subfreezing day or something. 850s are cold but not super crazy impressive esp if no snowcover to help. It's pretty clear that any cold that makes it down this way is gonna moderate extremely quickly. Boston is a world away in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 All those major models have had multiple cold shots previously this year that have all under-performed. I stand by my call. I would agree with you. The extreme cold portrayed would cause DC area to have highs around 20, lows around 0. It will turn out highs in low 30's and lows around 20. Pretty embarassing stuff that atmopsheric science prediction cannot adjust to what has actually been occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I would agree with you. The extreme cold portrayed would cause DC area to have highs around 20, lows around 0. It will turn out highs in low 30's and lows around 20. Pretty embarassing stuff that atmopsheric science prediction cannot adjust to what has actually been occurring. I could see highs in the mid/upper 20s @ DCA..looks like multiple shots are in the cards as well..ensembles are trending colder with the 2nd and 3rd blasts, w/ hints of a retrogression down the line in late February..which would shift the trough axis west somewhat. I'm bullish on the mid feb - early mar period for well below average temps and a snowfall or two. This go around, there's plenty of ensemble support. I think this one is easier to recognize. Those calling for an AN February are mostly going off gut instinct, I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I would agree with you. The extreme cold portrayed would cause DC area to have highs around 20, lows around 0. It will turn out highs in low 30's and lows around 20. Pretty embarassing stuff that atmopsheric science prediction cannot adjust to what has actually been occurring.The 1-2" of fake snowpack modeled after Tuesday is probably distorting the 2m temps next week a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I could see highs in the mid/uppers 20s @ DCA..looks like multiple shots are in the cards as well..ensembles are trending colder with the 2nd and 3rd blasts, w/ hints of a retrogression down the line in late February..which would shift the trough axis west somewhat. Yeoman was right when he said that we could have latched onto the winter signal by mid December when after some exceptional cold shots in November we began to experience "good things" being 7+ days away. No winter weather enthusiast would likely accept the fact that the first "delayed" event was a bad and strong signal that this is what we would continue to experience for next 2months. Even next time it would be a bitter pill to ingest in early December but it does seem, at least around DC, as soon as we get the first "delayed" in December or January then bad things are almost always ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's pretty clear that any cold that makes it down this way is gonna moderate extremely quickly. Boston is a world away in that regard. It's not going to moderate any quicker than it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I could see highs in the mid/upper 20s @ DCA..looks like multiple shots are in the cards as well..ensembles are trending colder with the 2nd and 3rd blasts, w/ hints of a retrogression down the line in late February..which would shift the trough axis west somewhat. I'm bullish on the mid feb - early mar period for well below average temps and a snowfall or two. This go around, there's plenty of ensemble support. I think this one is easier to recognize. Those calling for an AN February are mostly going off gut instinct, I suspect. You've made a bunch of stupid bullish calls in the past though under another name .. some of us remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You've made a bunch of stupid bullish calls in the past though under another name .. some of us remember that.To be fair, he was having serious issues in his life at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 To be fair, he was having serious issues in his life at that time.Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeoman was right when he said that we could have latched onto the winter signal by mid December when after some exceptional cold shots in November we began to experience "good things" being 7+ days away. No winter weather enthusiast would likely accept the fact that the first "delayed" event was a bad and strong signal that this is what we would continue to experience for next 2months. Even next time it would be a bitter pill to ingest in early December but it does seem, at least around DC, as soon as we get the first "delayed" in December or January then bad things are almost always ahead. In a pattern that mandates crappy vort passes and poorly timed phases, storms don't often occur..hence any modeled storms will tend to exist out at range, when model error is greater. It's just proof that the pattern sucks. This doesn't mean the large scale boundary state(s) will not change..they often do. And when they do, threats will show up on the modeling at a closer range. At least that's my opinion. I'd like to get into this pattern change before I make any assumptions, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You've made a bunch of stupid bullish calls in the past though under another name .. some of us remember that. Fair enough. Hopefully, this one works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 IMO, EURO/GFS are both coming up with a storm around the Feb 17-21 time period... I believe this wiil probably be our last major chance for sig snow why? We had a huge March last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 18th storm, Looks like another Miller B, with Boston getting hit again. Juno revisited. Cold air stays locked in place longer around dc, before changing to rain, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 18z GFS agrees with 12z euro on D 10 storm. 850 good for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 18z GFS agrees with 12z euro on D 10 storm. 850 good for most of the event.I'll take messy...anything over 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 First blast is now set to arrive in 4 days..running out of time for it to vanish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'll take messy...anything over 4 inches I bet the GFS has nailed the track of the low with the primary going to pittsburgh. I would also bet it's too cold at surface and 850 mb level given the seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 pretty strong signal on the euro and gfs now that effective 2/15-17 the southern branch takes over from the northern branch debacle no guarantees, mix events likely, but we'll at least have a chance at accumulating snow too EDIT: 12Z Canadian ensembles support that idea too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 pretty strong signal on the euro and gfs now that effective 2/15-17 the southern branch takes over from the northern branch debacle no guarantees, mix events likely, but we'll at least have a chance at accumulating snow too EDIT: 12Z Canadian ensembles support that idea too Euro ensembles look active and wet from d7-15 as well. Lots of members with stuff coming up from the south. How the tracks and temps play out is anyone's guess. I'd be happy with any event at this point. Chances look decent for some snow All snow events may be tough to come by. I personally don't care. Just tracking something fruitful is fine. Today was awful nice. I was outside from 10am till sunset. Fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 pretty strong signal on the euro and gfs now that effective 2/15-17 the southern branch takes over from the northern branch debacle no guarantees, mix events likely, but we'll at least have a chance at accumulating snow too EDIT: 12Z Canadian ensembles support that idea too Yes. Looks like split flow with storms coming across the south and a Pna ridge supplying cold in the east. That gives us a shot. Without any blocking though each storm could cut. But given several opportunities in that setup we have a fair chance to score a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 18z GFS agrees with 12z euro on D 10 storm. 850 good for most of the event. I am curious as to how you state this with a straight face when considering how many like kind portrayls have been generated in last 8 weeks with virtually no outcomes matching the projected outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I could see highs in the mid/upper 20s @ DCA..looks like multiple shots are in the cards as well..ensembles are trending colder with the 2nd and 3rd blasts, w/ hints of a retrogression down the line in late February..which would shift the trough axis west somewhat. I'm bullish on the mid feb - early mar period for well below average temps and a snowfall or two. This go around, there's plenty of ensemble support. I think this one is easier to recognize. Those calling for an AN February are mostly going off gut instinct, I suspect. Lol. How about seasonal persistence of zero blocking, northern storm tracks, no snow cover anywhere nearby, and a blistering start to the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 First blast is now set to arrive in 4 days..running out of time for it to vanish. Month will also be 1/2 over before it arrives and we'll be running a substantial + departure at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Lol. How about seasonal persistence of zero blocking, northern storm tracks, no snow cover anywhere nearby, and a blistering start to the month? Why should that continue? Not one piece of guidance suggests February will finish with a +departure. We've now got tropical forcing approaching the dateline with the Walker Cell having migrated east as a result of the last round of MJO forcing. The +AAM response in the tropics is now entrenched. Who cares what happened 2-3 weeks ago? There wasn't anything, forcing wise, supporting a significant, persistent Arctic outbreak here. Even back in early January, the tropical forcings were kinda meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Why should that continue? Not one piece of guidance suggests February will finish with a +departure. We've now got tropical forcing approaching the dateline with the Walker Cell having migrated east as a result of the last round of MJO forcing. The +AAM response in the tropics is now entrenched. How'd guidance work out today for DC? And I don't see one piece of guidance showing any appreciable blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 How'd guidance work out today for DC? And I don't see one piece of guidance showing any appreciable blocking. Pretty much on target today..64 for the high imby. Ran too warm up north, to cold down south. As for blocking, guidance is pointing towards a very strong +PNA/-EPO response to the low freq WPAC forcing. The look is similar in some respects to 2013-14. We don't need a -NAO in a regimen like l that, though I'd still rather have one than not. I'm not expecting anything historic, but I'm on board for a 2-3 week period with below normal temps and a snowfall or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Pretty much on target today..64 for the high imby. As for blocking, guidance is pointing towards a very strong +PNA/-EPO response to the low freq WPAC forcing. The look is similar in some respects to 2013-14. We don't need a -NAO in a regimen like l that, though I'd still rather have one than not. Pretty sure no guidance was forecasting a record high in DC today. Yes, it looks a lot like last year... minus the frequent snow events. The cold last year was transient. Cold for a few days followed by moderation, except last year we had snow cover to enhance the cold and temper the moderations. W/o some blocking, I think we see some cold days followed by a 2 days of 50F while a storm tracks to our north. Unless one or two of those storms cut under us, then I don't see enough sustained cold to erase the + departures we are building now. It'll be an interesting end to the month to see how it all shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Month will also be 1/2 over before it arrives and we'll be running a substantial + departure at that time. I'm at -0.3 for the month, and the majority of the area is below avg. Are you sure your data is accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm at -0.3 for the month, and the majority of the area is below avg: I only follow mby. Winchester is running strong + departures thus far. Check my post in the obs thread. We really suck if that map is accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 How'd guidance work out today for DC? And I don't see one piece of guidance showing any appreciable blocking. You realize IAD was like -2 for JAN right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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