Herb@MAWS Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 True. I'm going to FL next weekend.. too bad it's going to be cold there too. Beautiful down here in Nawlins with Marti Gras in full throttle. Tee shirts and shorts Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The end of feb looks like a good pattern to me. All the guidance suggests the trough stays in the east overall but shifts west enough we aren't stuck on the backside plus there is indications we could get split flow with systems undercutting the ridge in the west. If we have cold in front that's a good pattern. I would like to see a better nao but it looks pretty neutral, not great but not as hostile as it was much of the winter. All in all it's not a bad look to try to score one good hit before it's over. Given the stability if the pacific pattern I doubt we warm for any prolonged period until into march so we might as well hope for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs 50s next week? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I like the Day 12 threat on the GFS today... looks like nice overrunning... just need it a degree cooler or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Record lows next Sunday morning? GGEM suggests -25c 850s... just a tad cold I would guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs 50s next week? ?? I hope so. Today is great. Get outside and stop chasing ghosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Gfs 50s next week? ?? Undoubtedly. Everything has trended warmer as we close in. Cold has been constantly over-done in both the LR and MR... hell, even in the SR. Yesterday, my forecast high today was 54 and this morning it is 58F. I confidently called Feb AN in the obs thread, and stick with it. We may be +5F at KOKV by Tuesday. Good luck trying to erase that departure by the EOM w/o a southern storm track or snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Undoubtedly. Everything has trended warmer as we close in. Cold has been constantly over-done in both the LR and MR... hell, even in the SR. Yesterday, my forecast high today was 54 and this morning it is 58F. I confidently called Feb AN in the obs thread, and stick with it. We may be +5F at KOKV by Tuesday. Good luck trying to erase that departure by the EOM w/o a southern storm track or snow cover. Sure the cold has been terribly overplayed on the models outside of 5 days, however nothing points on any guidance towards trending warmer in mid-range. It may not be as cold as advertised but it certainly is going to get very cold and with the averages going up every couple days it is very likely Feb. finishes with a negative departure. All the major global models have multiple intense arctic shots between the 12th and 22nd. It is hard to believe they are all going to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Undoubtedly. Everything has trended warmer as we close in. Cold has been constantly over-done in both the LR and MR... hell, even in the SR. Yesterday, my forecast high today was 54 and this morning it is 58F. I confidently called Feb AN in the obs thread, and stick with it. We may be +5F at KOKV by Tuesday. Good luck trying to erase that departure by the EOM w/o a southern storm track or snow cover. 38 here. MRB is 0.0 departure through yesterday for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Getting funny watching people chasing after phantom storms in the 8-12 day range. Meanwhile, the sun angle just increased more in the past three days than it did from Dec 21 to Jan 5. Good luck with the snow storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 38 here. MRB is 0.0 departure through yesterday for February. Winter stopped at the VA/WV border this year. Dramatic contrast between MRB and OKV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Getting funny watching people chasing after phantom storms in the 8-12 day range. Meanwhile, the sun angle just increased more in the past three days than it did from Dec 21 to Jan 5. Good luck with the snow storm! Snow may not happen, because the pattern sucks. But sun angle wont factor much into that. Remember last March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Sure the cold has been terribly overplayed on the models outside of 5 days, however nothing points on any guidance towards trending warmer in mid-range. It may not be as cold as advertised but it certainly is going to get very cold and with the averages going up every couple days it is very likely Feb. finishes with a negative departure. All the major global models have multiple intense arctic shots between the 12th and 22nd. It is hard to believe they are all going to bust. All those major models have had multiple cold shots previously this year that have all under-performed. I stand by my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 All those major models have had multiple cold shots previously this year that have all under-performed. I stand by my call. Exactly.... The cold that is forecast in the next week will be modified by atleast 10degrees. Just 2 days ago forecasters were calling for upper 20's for highs Friday. Today calling for near 40 degrees for Fri.. then low to mid 40's thereafter. Todays high was forecast to be 65 , it is currently 73 imby. This winter has sucked, not because of lack of moisture, but because of lack of cold air, and it will continue. Game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 All those major models have had multiple cold shots previously this year that have all under-performed. I stand by my call. Really pretty easy to predict how this plays out...gradual cool down this week, a couple days with subfreezing highs...followed by moderation..then a cutter with mostly rain, followed by a return to moderate(not extreme) cold. This winter is proof that other than a fluke(like last year with the huge epo/wpo/pna ridge) that a -AO/-NAO is extremely important for the MA to have favorable odds of a cold & snowy winter. Of course the failed Nino didnt help either. I hope next fall the SAI is an all time low, long range forecasts are for a raging Nina, -PNA and +AO. Then I might feel good about our prospects for a decent winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Really pretty easy to predict how this plays out...gradual cool down this week, a couple days with subfreezing highs...followed by moderation..then a cutter with mostly rain, followed by a return to moderate(not extreme) cold. This winter is proof that other than a fluke(like last year with the huge epo/wpo/pna ridge) that a -AO/-NAO is extremely important for the MA to have favorable odds of a cold & snowy winter. Of course the failed Nino didnt help either. I hope next fall the SAI is an all time low, long range forecasts are for a raging Nina, -PNA and +AO. Then I might feel good about our prospects for a decent winter Nahhh, you really don't want that! 'Cause you know that a consensus forecast for every index to be a huge fail here will actually come true! We'll be partying like it's 2011-12! ETA: You are correct that the way things went this year has been a textbook case of a totally uncooperative AO/NAO. We've had cold. We've had a very favorable Pacific. We've had plenty of moisture. But other than a couple of times, it didn't work out thus far, so we've had plenty of 35 and rain as a result! Last year, at least we had some transient periods of blocking, so in that regard maybe we lucked out better. Not nearly so this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm seeing a pattern change on the euro, if it's right...fwiw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm seeing a pattern change on the euro, if it's right...fwiw? Hopefully a torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nahhh, you really don't want that! 'Cause you know that a consensus forecast for every index to be a huge fail here will actually come true! We'll be partying like it's 2011-12! lol true. I started looking for a cabin in Maine on Trulia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Really pretty easy to predict how this plays out...gradual cool down this week, a couple days with subfreezing highs...followed by moderation..then a cutter with mostly rain, followed by a return to moderate(not extreme) cold. This winter is proof that other than a fluke(like last year with the huge epo/wpo/pna ridge) that a -AO/-NAO is extremely important for the MA to have favorable odds of a cold & snowy winter. Of course the failed Nino didnt help either. I hope next fall the SAI is an all time low, long range forecasts are for a raging Nina, -PNA and +AO. Then I might feel good about our prospects for a decent winter Exactly why I think Feb finishes AN. Without blocking there is no chance of sustained cold. At best, it will be like last year: a couple cold days followed by moderation, only last year snow came along with (seemingly) each cold shot to enhance the cold and temper the warm-ups. That is not likely to happen this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Exactly why I think Feb finishes AN. Without blocking there is no chance of sustained cold. At best, it will be like last year: a couple cold days followed by moderation, only last year snow came along with (seemingly) each cold shot to enhance the cold and temper the warm-ups. That is not likely to happen this month. Yeah this winter the pattern is similar to last winter, only weaker and with zero luck. Whats it gonna take to see a sustained -NAO during winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah this winter the pattern is similar to last winter, only weaker and with zero luck. Whats it gonna take to see a sustained -NAO during winter... This is the 4th consecutive winter w/o any meaningful help from the NAO. That's incredible Of course, aren't we also about to set a record for the longest stretch w/o a nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I'm seeing a pattern change on the euro, if it's right...fwiw?PV maintains its residence over Baffin Island through the run. PNA ridge migrates north to the EPO position, so Pacific impulses can cut under it into the West Coast. Some subtropical ridging starting to show up like you expect to see in mid-Feb.Looks like it transitions to a wetter pattern, which I am all for. Plenty of cold available not too far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 IMO, EURO/GFS are both coming up with a storm around the Feb 17-21 time period... I believe this wiil probably be our last major chance for sig snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Sure the cold has been terribly overplayed on the models outside of 5 days, however nothing points on any guidance towards trending warmer in mid-range. It may not be as cold as advertised but it certainly is going to get very cold and with the averages going up every couple days it is very likely Feb. finishes with a negative departure. All the major global models have multiple intense arctic shots between the 12th and 22nd. It is hard to believe they are all going to bust. This, 100%. Those calling for an above avg February don't have much to stand on. I can't find a single piece of guidance that would allow for an AN outcome anywhere in the MA, minus a speck of orange over EastCoastNPZ's house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This, 100%. Those calling for an above avg February don't have much to stand on. I can't find a single piece of guidance that would allow for an AN outcome anywhere in the MA, minus a speck of orange over EastCoastNPZ's house. CPC agrees with you. They are on the second to last shade of purple...which is closer to black Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Count me in for temps not fully performing in the cold. Euro already had a 2m cold bias so now that we have the GFS going even wilder it feels like the Euro might be decent but it's probably too cold too. It'll probably be solid for a short period one way or another. It was quite cold in March last yr .. doubt we top that for lows based on what we see now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Count me in for temps not fully performing in the cold. Euro already had a 2m cold bias so now that we have the GFS going even wilder it feels like the Euro might be decent but it's probably too cold too. It'll probably be solid for a short period one way or another. Remember last week, the Euro had like a 4 day snowstorm for us beginning tonight? It's like 65 out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 CPC agrees with you. They are on the second to last shade of purple...which is closer to black Wow, you're right don't think I've seen such a consensus for below-normal this winter. Wish the CPC had human input on weekends, with this input perhaps Baxter/Artusa etc. would modify the forecast to adjust for the embarrassing biases we've seen recently at mid-range. Wrt to a Feb17-21 storm, hope so, Occasionally, anomalously cold periods end with big pattern changing storms. With a five-day window you've got a good shot to be a prophet, especially if a storm that crushes New England counts. Certainly some support via NAEFS ensembles for a storm affecting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Remember last week, the Euro had like a 4 day snowstorm for us beginning tonight? It's like 65 out right now. Huge gradient lately undoubtedly aided by the snowpack north to some degree. It's almost 50 degrees warmer here than in Boston heh. This current pattern is fairly flat compared to upcoming so doubt we escape some shivering.. unless it's precipitating I'd be cautious of DCA having a subfreezing day or something. 850s are cold but not super crazy impressive esp if no snowcover to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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