mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The casualty count continues. Winter 2014-15 has already claimed it's first two victims: Tenman and mitchnick. Hope we don't run out of straitjackets by March .... hey, I think I've made it pretty clear over the years that I'm manic and proud of it if I think we have a shot, I'm in.....but if I don't think there's a shot, I ain't afraid to "mention" that either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Even taking into account the underperformance with temps all year with the ops, it's pretty unanimous that we're going to have a respectable cold shot. I really hope we can get something small to track next week. I already know the gfs and or euro aren't going to show anything like what the 12z euro showed in the long range. I'd much prefer to focus on something inside of 7 days. I don't get the gut feeling we will shake the current Boston centric snow pattern until the trough retros west in the means, so I don't have much hope for anything other than a cartopper, which never excites me in a year when we've done poorly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-2311-0-56996500-1423343799.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nam interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We do clippers kinda well. Wouldn't be surprised if we get another nice event from one. If scoring on about 1 of every 12 is doing kinda well, then I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nam interesting For what? About 0.04"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2015/post-2311-0-56996500-1423343799.pngYou should be glad. The control run has shown about 100" of false digital snow this year. Let's try our luck when it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 You should be glad. The control run has shown about 100" of false digital snow this year. Let's try our luck when it doesn't. If anything, the southern snow could be a good sign for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 It's really too bad we can't get this Thursday to trend south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I don't get the gut feeling we will shake the current Boston centric snow pattern until the trough retros west in the means, so I don't have much hope for anything other than a cartopper, which never excites me in a year when we've done poorly It depends on how real that modeled cold shot is. With that kind of push it will almost guarantee a track to our south. But like I said earlier. A southern fringe job would serve the end of this winter well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The low on the 0z GFS looks further south than its prior run, but it could be model noise. Edit: The low at 18z on Thurs just another Miller B, and it acts accordingly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 idk if anyone bothered to listen to Bastardi, but what he said would happen showed up to a tee almost on the 12Z Euro run I watched the 12 minute video. No hype. Just straight weather and reasoning behind it. He is very good at long range, so if what he says pulls through (and its on the models already), the next few weeks are going to be blast. I'm encouraged. The crew should check it out. It was a freebie today. Anyway, fingers crossed for some good overnight model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 just another Miller B, and it acts accordingly It's a crappy upper air pattern for us. Trough axis is way to far east to get something to amplify west or under us. It's actually impressive how sharp it digs as is even though we are out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Ignore the snowfall maps etc from the 12z EURO for a second. Look at the 500mb map. It is almost a perfect match with what is happening this wee... Problem with the day 10 storm is as the low starts coming out of the SE, the 50/50 feature starts to life N as we have no blocking. This would probably be bad for us, its pointless to talk about an event at this range as the EURO will prob. be totally dif at 00z, but unfortunately I see no changes in the overall pattern. Doesn't mean we can't cash in, but you guys know how much of a weenie I am so for me to pessimistic kind of sucks.....Then again, we'll probably get a HECS from VA to NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Ah. Welp. There ya go. I'm talking about the midweek vort. We were never in the game for that one. What happens after is completely unkown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Vodka cold on the GFS tonight. That second shot centered toward the day 10-12 window is starting to gain credence on the ensemble suites.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This looks like an early January repeat to me. If we can get that arctic air in here, I think we'll score something. Mid-Feb is the prime of our snow season. I'm finding it hard to find a Feb that didn't deliver w/ Arctic air of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 GGEM 240. Maybe too cold for GLL low to fook things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I am quite optimistic. All models are showing a storm and cold air in place. We just need right track now GGEM 240. Maybe too cold for GLL low to fook things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 not really sure what you want If it's going to be cold.. snow. I may be wrong and it may shift a bit after day ~7-10 but the way it's modeled to set up isn't great for us overall. We can obviously still snow into March but after another 10-14 we are fighting climo. I see no reason to chase a day 11-12 potential snow risk based on any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 If it's going to be cold.. snow. I may be wrong and it may shift a bit after day ~7-10 but the way it's modeled to set up isn't great for us overall. We can obviously still snow into March but after another 10-14 we are fighting climo. I see no reason to chase a day 11-12 potential snow risk based on any model.there is more to life than snow. Look at zwyts. He left the board. You have to know when to cut your losses and move on. Snow is like love...when you least expect it..it will come. Stop chasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 there is more to life than snow. Look at zwyts. He left the board. You have to know when to cut your losses and move on. Snow is like love...when you least expect it..it will come. Stop chasing True. I'm going to FL next weekend.. too bad it's going to be cold there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2015 Author Share Posted February 8, 2015 True. I'm going to FL next weekend.. too bad it's going to be cold there too. Just come back for the early week storm that the 00z euro will lose tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 there is more to life than snow. Look at zwyts. He left the board. You have to know when to cut your losses and move on. Snow is like love...when you least expect it..it will come. Stop chasing Jesus. You know winter is close to over when Ji is talking Ian off of the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 GGEM 240. Maybe too cold for GLL low to fook things up can you post a link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 larry cosgrove is predicting a pan handle hooker b for the big storm in 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nice southern slider on the 6z GFS I'm sure it will trend NW just a tad and be the perfect storm for the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 larry cosgrove is predicting a pan handle hooker b for the big storm in 10 days I bet that translates to more plain RAIN for us, then the obligatory freezing deep cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 larry cosgrove is predicting a pan handle hooker b for the big storm in 10 days He also predicted a major winter storm through the southeast and up the east coast in the feb 8th-11th period.....that's gonna work well for him ......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Over the last couple of days, the GFS has been slowly trending snowier for our area for the coming week. It now has the DC-Baltimore-Frederick area over 1". At least it doesn't have us getting completely shut out any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.