psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Would be a fitting end to this winter to get fringed by a suppressed storm. At least its something to watch in the long range. The GFS still wants to bury NE throughout its run. That would make sense with the way this year has gone so far. it's not suppressed, ecmwf just doesn't go out far enough. It gets snow all the way to Columbus Ohio. Look at the 700rh we are in the comma head at 240. Next frame would have been a big hit. Now it's 10 days away so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This feels like a March 2001 redux kind of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 it's not suppressed, ecmwf just doesn't go out far enough. It gets snow all the way to Columbus Ohio. Look at the 700rh we are in the comma head at 240. Next frame would have been a big hit. Now it's 10 days away so..... I was literally going to mention the same thing (700mb RH). With those temps, it would qualify as a blizzard in these parts. Frankly, I don't think I've seen any storm look that good on a model in years...but then it is a 10 day map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The models would likely not get that right now as they have upgraded themselves in such a manner that they are too fined tuned thus too high strung thus unable to correctly identify where any given pressure system will traverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 it's not suppressed, ecmwf just doesn't go out far enough. It gets snow all the way to Columbus Ohio. Look at the 700rh we are in the comma head at 240. Next frame would have been a big hit. Now it's 10 days away so..... No. I I know. Was just making a statement about a fitting end to winter. It would end up cutting most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro ensemble mean definitely shows a strong signal for the storm considering how far out it is. But not a strong one for a miller A. Mean track is into ky/wv and then a jump to the coast. Clusters show cutters/miller b's/ and miller A's. There's isn't a strong hp to the north on the means. West track would be the most likely imo. Subject to change every 12-24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 It's not worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I was literally going to mention the same thing (700mb RH). With those temps, it would qualify as a blizzard in these parts. Frankly, I don't think I've seen any storm look that good on a model in years...but then it is a 10 day map. I doubt it too but I suppose showing it at least means it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro ensemble mean definitely shows a strong signal for the storm considering how far out it is. But not a strong one for a miller A. Mean track is into ky/wv and then a jump to the coast. Clusters show cutters/miller b's/ and miller A's. There's isn't a strong hp to the north on the means. West track would be the most likely imo. Subject to change every 12-24 hours.but it starts so cold that the mean 850's are still -6c! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 That is one potent shortwave in the southwest next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro ensemble mean definitely shows a strong signal for the storm considering how far out it is. But not a strong one for a miller A. Mean track is into ky/wv and then a jump to the coast. Clusters show cutters/miller b's/ and miller A's. There's isn't a strong hp to the north on the means. West track would be the most likely imo. Subject to change every 12-24 hours.Track into ky isn't bad if there is cold in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Track into ky isn't bad if there is cold in front. Yeah its easy to say it will track up to the NW, as that has been the case with most of these events lately. But the look is intriguing...seems it will be plenty cold in front. Could stay underneath or do a Miller B. Could end up taking a good track and rain. Too far out to say. We watch and wait...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Track into ky isn't bad if there is cold in front. Nope. Would be fine as long as its juiced and there's some semblance of hp to out north and not east. I'd be thrilled with thump/drizzle/dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 18z GFS is ridiculously cold in the LR w/ a nice vort pass near Presidents Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I know it's mostly rain but it is sort of interesting how the models are getting wetter for Monday. And that 18z gfs run is ridiculous in many ways...from the extreme cold to the almost PD storm to the absolute burying and obliteration of Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not a lot of west tracks on the 18z gfs And some transient blocking showing up too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not in total love with the 12z EURO once again with no blocking the vort max is forced NW of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Just need to nudge those warm heights further into Greenland... then perhaps we'd be set Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Not a lot of west tracks on the 18z gfs And some transient blocking showing up too Yeah. I noticed that. Decent signal for a coastal of some kind B/A...I cant believe I'm getting sucked in again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Yeah. I noticed that. Decent signal for a coastal of some kind B/A...I cant believe I'm getting sucked in again. Nah, don't get sucked in. Just casually watch. If it goes poof then no big deal. Long range threats have done nothing for us all year. I'm thinking something small pops up beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Nah, don't get sucked in. Just casually watch. If it goes poof then no big deal. Long range threats have done nothing for us all year. I'm thinking something small pops up beforehand. I agree. I still think one of these clippers ends up south of us over the next couple of weeks. I could live with a cold 1-3 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is the one! Let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is the one! Let's do this I went through the EPS members and was encouraged with many west tracks having plenty of cold wedged in. The really crappy ones have a dominant low tracking the northern Midwest. As far as fantasy threats go, this one seems ok. If a big storm forms in the deep south we would probably have the biggest storm of the year even if it's a kitchen sink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 The signal is there for a storm for sure. The Gfs ensembles looked good but some were suppressed. I like the look. This may be our last shot as March will be around the corner after this threat. This is the one! Let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 This is the one! Let's do this the euro is an absolute dream places to our wsw have 10-12" on the ground and still snowing surface temp at BWI after .12" qpf has fallen is -9.2C and 850 is -13.2C even as far south as Tappahanock, VA surface temp is -6.3C and 850 is -9.4C! honestly, there is soooo much cold air around the track almost doesn't matter (assuming it is that cold, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 We're talking about the late Feb deal? I'm just casually watching the clipper next Thurs/Fri on the Euro, it would start at 228 hrs. 18Z GFS around same time actually drops .25+qpf with extreme cold around the same time with a clipper (loses the southern part), which would probably be 15-20:1 ratios with temps GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Mitch, euro ens mean has 850s around -7 @ d10. 0c line basically at the nc/sc border. D12 has it below -10. Pretty cold for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 Mitch, euro ens mean has 850s around -7 @ d10. 0c line basically at the nc/sc border. D12 has it below -10. Pretty cold for a mean. I know, I eyeballed around -6C on my phone when I posted earlier IF we can really get the cold that the models are showing, and that's a big IF since this cold of cold has been advertised several times this year w/o success, anything that comes from our W or SW would be all frozen....it's just too damn cold for anything else to fall whether centered e, s, w or n of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 idk if anyone bothered to listen to Bastardi, but what he said would happen showed up to a tee almost on the 12Z Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2015 Share Posted February 8, 2015 I know, I eyeballed around -6C on my phone when I posted earlier IF we can really get the cold that the models are showing, and that's a big IF since this cold of cold has been advertised several times this year w/o success, anything that comes from our W or SW would be all frozen....it's just too damn cold for anything else to fall whether centered e, s, w or n of us Even taking into account the underperformance with temps all year with the ops, it's pretty unanimous that we're going to have a respectable cold shot. I really hope we can get something small to track next week. I already know the gfs and or euro aren't going to show anything like what the 12z euro showed in the long range. I'd much prefer to focus on something inside of 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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