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February mid to long range threats discussion


Ji

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I'm SE of 95! Probably not far enough....lol

I meant east and south of dc. haha.

The corridor is perfectly centered between the two areas of heavier precip. NW benefits from the column getting right faster and se benefits from extra precip from the coastal.

ETA: looked a zoomed in map. Mitch, you may be in the 1" area. Boom

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I meant east and south of dc. haha.

The corridor is perfectly centered between the two areas of heavier precip. NW benefits from the column getting right faster and se benefits from extra precip from the coastal.

I don't know how much wetter this can get but it looks to me like this low should be a little more juiced up.

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1993 was one of the longest leads on a storm that I can remember and that includes present day

The models would likely not get that right now as they have upgraded themselves in such a manner that they are too fined tuned thus too high strung thus unable to correctly identify where any given pressure system will traverse.

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Oh my god, there maybe something to watch on the Euro..Look at that 228 hour surface panel... :snowing:

 

Well, just wanted to have a little fun with watching this run.  Obviously, we have a long way to go for a snow threat.. 

 

 

NC to SVA getting burried at 240.

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Globals are all showing the secondary forming off of nc now. Ggem has a nice stripe of precip but temps are off. Euro and gfs both show a little snow. A little snow would be nice from a system that's been a writeoff for days.

 

00z GFS had the surface low south of Nantucket at 00z Tuesday.  12z has it centered over North Carolina.  The end result is similar for us, but the models are still shifting around.

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Give this man a prize. It's fools gold. And it's TEN days away.

It's nothing more than something to keep an eye on. It's not like it magically appeared. The period has shown plenty of signs. If something develops, a perfect tracks will be less to much less likely than a mixed event of some sort. I know you're out until it turns into at least real bronze. We're probably not getting out of this month without additional snow either way.

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00z GFS had the surface low south of Nantucket at 00z Tuesday. 12z has it centered over North Carolina. The end result is similar for us, but the models are still shifting around.

Models are converging on losing the 2 low look and focusing on the southern one. Not great either way for us but something is better than nothing.

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I think it's also the GFS coming in line with other guidance which had been favoring the more southern track.  There was also a big shift on the GEFS.  00z, most members brought the low north of DC.  Now they all bring it south.  48% of members now show a little snow for DC, which is better than nothing.

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Is there a chance this could trend better?

Depends on the definition of better. We're totally out of the game until lp is se of us and the column has a chance to recover from the roasting. Table scraps after a meal.

I suppose there could be a stripe of .1-.2 with a snow sounding. Pretty doubtful.

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Give this man a prize. It's fools gold. And it's TEN days away.

Hard to get excited about a day 10 snowstorm that looks like it easily could shift inot he Ohio Valley like most storms this year.  We've been modeled a lot more long range snowstorms than we've had.  When it's within 5 days, I'll start getting interested in it 

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it is, without a doubt, the most persistent weather pattern I've ever seen for a relatively small geographical area

actually, I think they are going to start to have some real problems up there of the human suffering kind if the gfs is accurate

 

i feel like the pattern here has been equally persistent.  my memory could be deceiving me, but in my entire life here i don't remember too many consistently chilly days like we've had this winter.  they've happened, but not often.  it really boggles me everyday just how we've escaped an areawide secs this winter.  temps are almost always our #1 concern and we've been fine until we get an event.  it really is warm/wet, cold/dry on steroids.  this weekend is one of the few times we've bucked that trend, so maybe that's a sign of a subtle pattern change or it could just be a sign of us getting closer to spring lol.

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