mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see Tombo just made some + remarks about the Euro over at Phillywx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I see Tombo just made some + remarks about the Euro over at Phillywx Looks like anything that falls after 1am or so would be snow. Euro is .5-1" for most of us (assuming it sticks). The 1" areas are nw and se of the 95 corridor. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Looks like anything that falls after 1am or so would be snow. Euro is .5-1" for most of us (assuming it sticks). The 1" areas are nw and se of the 95 corridor. lol I'm SE of 95! Probably not far enough....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I'm SE of 95! Probably not far enough....lolI meant east and south of dc. haha. The corridor is perfectly centered between the two areas of heavier precip. NW benefits from the column getting right faster and se benefits from extra precip from the coastal. ETA: looked a zoomed in map. Mitch, you may be in the 1" area. Boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I meant east and south of dc. haha. The corridor is perfectly centered between the two areas of heavier precip. NW benefits from the column getting right faster and se benefits from extra precip from the coastal. yeah, that's what I figured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 yeah, that's what I figured DC map isn't loading but I snipped a regional. Not terrible all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I meant east and south of dc. haha. The corridor is perfectly centered between the two areas of heavier precip. NW benefits from the column getting right faster and se benefits from extra precip from the coastal. I don't know how much wetter this can get but it looks to me like this low should be a little more juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 is day 5 on the Euro flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 is day 5 on the Euro flurries? We're scraping the bowl but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 is day 5 on the Euro flurries? Probably for some, good vort but crappy surface. It's sort of like the Euro did with the last arctic front, I'm not sure it produced anything more than radar echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We're scraping the bowl but yeah. Probably for some, good vort but crappy surface. It's sort of like the Euro did with the last arctic front, I'm not sure it produced anything more than radar echoes. thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 heck of a strong short wave on the day 6 map in western Hudsons Bay coming down on the Euro which, I hope, will suffer the same fate as the last ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 1993 was one of the longest leads on a storm that I can remember and that includes present day The models would likely not get that right now as they have upgraded themselves in such a manner that they are too fined tuned thus too high strung thus unable to correctly identify where any given pressure system will traverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 12z Euro is frigid in the LR. So much for that mythical warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro 240, hell yeah imaginary storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh my god, there maybe something to watch on the Euro..Look at that 228 hour surface panel... Well, just wanted to have a little fun with watching this run. Obviously, we have a long way to go for a snow threat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Euro 240, hell yeah imaginary storm incoming. A lot of last night's ensemble members look similar. Even if it cuts or runs we would get good snow in that imaginary setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Oh my god, there maybe something to watch on the Euro..Look at that 228 hour surface panel... Well, just wanted to have a little fun with watching this run. Obviously, we have a long way to go for a snow threat.. NC to SVA getting burried at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The end of the Euro looks magnificent... just like 9874932423 other 10-day threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 The end of the Euro looks magnificent... just like 9874932423 other 10-day threats Give this man a prize. It's fools gold. And it's TEN days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 NC to SVA getting burried at 240. Would be a fitting end to this winter to get fringed by a suppressed storm. At least its something to watch in the long range. The GFS still wants to bury NE throughout its run. That would make sense with the way this year has gone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Globals are all showing the secondary forming off of nc now. Ggem has a nice stripe of precip but temps are off. Euro and gfs both show a little snow. A little snow would be nice from a system that's been a writeoff for days. 00z GFS had the surface low south of Nantucket at 00z Tuesday. 12z has it centered over North Carolina. The end result is similar for us, but the models are still shifting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Give this man a prize. It's fools gold. And it's TEN days away. It's nothing more than something to keep an eye on. It's not like it magically appeared. The period has shown plenty of signs. If something develops, a perfect tracks will be less to much less likely than a mixed event of some sort. I know you're out until it turns into at least real bronze. We're probably not getting out of this month without additional snow either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 00z GFS had the surface low south of Nantucket at 00z Tuesday. 12z has it centered over North Carolina. The end result is similar for us, but the models are still shifting around. Models are converging on losing the 2 low look and focusing on the southern one. Not great either way for us but something is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I think it's also the GFS coming in line with other guidance which had been favoring the more southern track. There was also a big shift on the GEFS. 00z, most members brought the low north of DC. Now they all bring it south. 48% of members now show a little snow for DC, which is better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Is there a chance this could trend better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Is there a chance this could trend better? Depends on the definition of better. We're totally out of the game until lp is se of us and the column has a chance to recover from the roasting. Table scraps after a meal. I suppose there could be a stripe of .1-.2 with a snow sounding. Pretty doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Give this man a prize. It's fools gold. And it's TEN days away. Hard to get excited about a day 10 snowstorm that looks like it easily could shift inot he Ohio Valley like most storms this year. We've been modeled a lot more long range snowstorms than we've had. When it's within 5 days, I'll start getting interested in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 DC map isn't loading but I snipped a regional. Not terrible all things considered. sno.JPG Seriously we are calling .5-1" not terrible? Plus it's a step back from 0z. No one noticed but that was 1-2" for a lot of Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 it is, without a doubt, the most persistent weather pattern I've ever seen for a relatively small geographical area actually, I think they are going to start to have some real problems up there of the human suffering kind if the gfs is accurate i feel like the pattern here has been equally persistent. my memory could be deceiving me, but in my entire life here i don't remember too many consistently chilly days like we've had this winter. they've happened, but not often. it really boggles me everyday just how we've escaped an areawide secs this winter. temps are almost always our #1 concern and we've been fine until we get an event. it really is warm/wet, cold/dry on steroids. this weekend is one of the few times we've bucked that trend, so maybe that's a sign of a subtle pattern change or it could just be a sign of us getting closer to spring lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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