mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 that next clipper that "would" and "should" hit us, will probably wash out due to the monster off the NE coast let's see if my paranoia is justified lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 not for us....just another heart break and "no", it won't trend in our favor this winter Verbatim no, its not good here either....When I say astonishing I'm talking about the cold & the upper air pattern. IF that ULL dropped farther S it could close off East of us though it could be good for us though. I'm a fan of extremes when it comes to weather. Even if 00z GFS didn't give us a snowstorm I'd pay to see something like that happen, the cold would be absurd lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Absolutely astonishing run.... Beat me too it. 492dm south of NYC. Once in a lifetime map, Coldest 3-6" ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Next Sunday morning the GFS has me at -4 with 850's at -28.5 and Thicknesses of 491. WC of -20 to -30. This is all after a couple of inches of snow on Saturday. What an insane run. Let's see what this same time frame looks like on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Verbatim no, its not good here either....When I say astonishing I'm talking about the cold & the upper air pattern. IF that ULL dropped farther S it could close off East of us though it could be good for us though. I'm a fan of extremes when it comes to weather. Even if 00z GFS didn't give us a snowstorm I'd pay to see something like that happen, the cold would be absurd lol. problem is, we have our extremes already this year....extremely fooked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 paranoia justified! 252 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_252_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=252&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150207+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 264 hrs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_264_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=264&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150207+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 not 1 fookin' flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 looking at that 312 hrs. map, I swear the GFS is going to do something even crazier post 312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 paranoia justified! 252 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_252_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=252&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150207+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 264 hrs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_264_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=264&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150207+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 not 1 fookin' flake No snow but at least you get to relive Jan. 1977. By the 20th we'll be ice skating on the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 that trough coming down from N Canada at 312 looks like it wants to meet its southern friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 No snow but at least you get to relive Jan. 1977. By the 20th we'll be ice skating on the bay. don't ice skate I do watch snow when it falls....can you help me there? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 and the monster comes out and it's a huge rainstorm haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 don't ice skate I do watch snow when it falls....can you help me there? lol You can always watch a JB video. Then you'll feel a lot better about yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 You can always watch a JB video. Then you'll feel a lot better about yourself. doubt it because it means I would have wasted money I love how the GFS has 850mb at BWI rise 17.1C in 24 hours to give us rain on this run it has to be right, I don't care what hour it is, in light of what has happened this year at least it's finding new ways to screw us and NE gets rain too, so I "guess" you can say the pattern will be broken by then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 So what! We're all in the same boat here. Can you be just a little less negative! hey, I didn't spit out the model maps they are what they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 doubt it because it means I would have wasted money I love how the GFS has 850mb at BWI rise 17.1C in 24 hours to give us rain on this run it has to be right, I don't care what hour it is, in light of what has happened this year at least it's finding new ways to screw us and NE gets rain too, so I "guess" you can say the pattern will be broken by then lol This wonderful hobby of ours is more than often a waste of time and money. Fortunately for me once Spring is here I could careless about weather until the next fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 This wonderful hobby of ours is more than often a waste of time and money. Fortunately for me once Spring is here I could careless about weather until the next fall. yeah, I agree on all points it'll change 100x on the models between now and 2 weeks, but it is crazy how we can are seemingly singled out to get denied, "we" as in 40S usually, the folks down south will get a fluke snow that misses DCA/BWI, but they haven't even seen that northern stream = NINA-type pattern = we're screwed every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 some crazy **** on the gfs next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Is it just wishful thinking or can the vodka cold reshuffle the storm tracks a bit? Better question: will the potential east-based NAO alluded to in Isotherm's post help us... at all? It's not the same as the classic west-based block but it has to at least be better than the +NAO we've had all season. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 yes..maybe our cartopper will get better and better Half inch now with 1" pressing south of I70. M/D close to 2". Backing our way in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Half inch now with 1" pressing south of I70. M/D close to 2". Backing our way in? Also looks like the surface should be wetter and more consolidated than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 some crazy **** on the gfs next weekend. GGEM does mostly the same thing. CHance of it happening?: .000000001% Euro will laugh at the idea. On the off chance it's right, we'll definitely get screwed and NE will get theirs once again. I'll probably chase as it'll be the only chance to experience a real snowstorm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Heh, I'll take the GFS solution. That's true old 'timers cold right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Two things to root for. I doubt getting the pv further south is even a remote possability so the better option is for it to drop but not that far. Then it would keep the track of those vorts under us but not squash them. Then as the Baja energy ejects we have a shot but it's way too far out to know what the setup for that will be. When it comes out we need the pv pressing or some blocking or it's likely to be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Two things to root for. I doubt getting the pv further south is even a remote possability so the better option is for it to drop but not that far. Then it would keep the track of those vorts under us but not squash them. Then as the Baja energy ejects we have a shot but it's way too far out to know what the setup for that will be. When it comes out we need the pv pressing or some blocking or it's likely to be rain. I really don't know what a triple phaser would look like because they are so rare and I haven't bothered to ever study 3/93 but, Euro looks close to something like what I would expect a triple phaser to look like at day 10. Of course, I could be completely wrong with my characterization, but it does show an interesting setup. Problem is, it looks to cut to our west, though prior maps and a loop suggest that the slp might pass to our south. Pay site maps depict this better than these links, but you can see what I'm talking about. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I really don't know what a triple phaser would look like because they are so rare and I haven't bothered to ever study 3/93 but, Euro looks close to something like what I would expect a triple phaser to look like at day 10. Of course, I could be completely wrong with my characterization, but it does show an interesting setup. Problem is, it looks to cut to our west, though prior maps and a loop suggest that the slp might pass to our south. Pay site maps depict this better than these links, but you can see what I'm talking about. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png you can use this link to loop the 5H http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2015020700&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 I really don't know what a triple phaser would look like because they are so rare and I haven't bothered to ever study 3/93 but, Euro looks close to something like what I would expect a triple phaser to look like at day 10. Of course, I could be completely wrong with my characterization, but it does show an interesting setup. Problem is, it looks to cut to our west, though prior maps and a loop suggest that the slp might pass to our south. Pay site maps depict this better than these links, but you can see what I'm talking about. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015020700/ecmwf_T850_namer_11.png That low looks like its headed for Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 That low looks like its headed for Cleveland. has that look for sure, but since it's 10 days away and can easily make it to Chicago, I'd prefer to give it time to let the models find a different way to screw us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 has that look for sure, but since it's 10 days away and can easily make it to Chicago, I'd prefer to give it time to let the models find a different way to screw us Without a pattern reshuffle there is no reason to expect anything different. I don't see any meaningful changes in the AO/NAO state(transient east based block doesn't help), so we likely will see some vort squashing cold followed by a soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 Probably not a good thing that the next three clippers on the GFS track north or over the Great Lakes. Even the bizarre Miller B superstorm on the 00 UT GFS run, jumps to the coast after tracking thru New york. Could this be a winter northern New Englanders remember for years to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 some crazy **** on the gfs next weekend. Yeah...a clipper that crosses the Appalachians and moves southeast. It looks cute but so extremely different from our not so lovely seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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