Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I just deflated Nah, it's not a disaster and we have stuff to watch in the mean time. We'll see how it looks down the road. It's really a beast of a +ao/nao combo. Massive consolidated vortex up there. This is d10-15 mean. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nah, it's not a disaster and we have stuff to watch in the mean time. We'll see how it looks down the road. It's really a beast of a +ao/nao combo. Massive consolidated vortex up there. This is d10-15 mean. Crazy. 5day.JPG so much of a beast, the CFS2 has us colder than normal for FEB too here's the 700mb map which depicts even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the GFS will have a better look than 12z for early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 We've got a potential threat inside of 10 days. I'll just focus on that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I think the GFS will have a better look than 12z for early next week Warmish for some reason, and kind of weak, but not important. Good that it still has the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Warmish for some reason, and kind of weak, but not important. Good that it still has the storm. haven't seen the whole run yet, but 12z was an apps runner and all rain, so the shift is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 haven't seen the whole run yet, but 12z was an apps runner and all rain, so the shift is good SW energy never ejects and phases, otherwise it would probably be a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Warmish for some reason, and kind of weak, but not important. Good that it still has the storm. Yeah, kind of weak looking and the 850 temps get a bit marginal, but surface is below freezing somehow. As you said, at least something is there for now. haven't seen the whole run yet, but 12z was an apps runner and all rain, so the shift is good Actually the 12Z had 2-m temperatures below freezing throughout the event. 850 temps got above zero, so looks like it would be an ice type situation verbatim. There was a low in the Lakes area and moisture streaming northward in the 12Z simulation, not really an apps runner but more like something tries to re-develop off the coast (at or north of us) later on. Somehow, I guess it keeps us wedged in with near-surface cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nah, it's not a disaster and we have stuff to watch in the mean time. We'll see how it looks down the road. It's really a beast of a +ao/nao combo. Massive consolidated vortex up there. This is d10-15 mean. Crazy. 5day.JPG Whew, that is ugly looking in terms of the AO/NAO! Somehow, we've got lower heights over us and the eastern quarter to third of the country. Maybe because that bullseye of low heights over Greenland is so strong it extends down this way somewhat, plus there's just enough ridging to the west. Don't like seeing low heights forming in the Gulf of Alaska, but maybe that's temporary, who knows. Would be nice to have the western U.S. ridge a bit farther west. Can't tell if the EPO remains negative (with generally +PNA), that's been the one stable thing this winter that's kept things somewhat interesting (I believe that was the case last year too?). What in the heck does it take to raise heights enough over Greenland and push that vortex down closer to here or at least northeast Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro control looks really nice for Feb 3 to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 We have a better chance of getting a fluke HECS than seeing a +NAO not verify this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we can get that large arctic H in C Canada to get here a bit faster at 132... we could have another wintry mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 If we can get that large arctic H in C Canada to get here a bit faster at 132... we could have another wintry mess I'm kinda done getting invested in these minor events. At this point it's time for us to score a 6"+ or I'd rather it get warm and nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm kinda done getting invested in these minor events. At this point it's time for us to score a 6"+ or I'd rather it get warm and nice out. Yeah I'm leaning that way. I think watching NE get a KU nudged me further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yall know that the GFS really shows a good storm for us, despite the silly ass app runner it has? Watch how that cold in Canadian presses in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I'm kinda done getting invested in these minor events. At this point it's time for us to score a 6"+ or I'd rather it get warm and nice out. That is the only way I am getting to my average. Yeah, would love to see a nice event, but I will take whatever. Maybe we get some true cold in and not have to sweat temps all the time. Now that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Yall know that the GFS really shows a good storm for us, despite the silly ass app runner it has? Watch how that cold in Canadian presses in future runs. oh I wasn't throwing in the towel just venting. Long way to go but we need to score a hit soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 That is the only way I am getting to my average. Yeah, would love to see a nice event, but I will take whatever. Maybe we get some true cold in and not have to sweat temps all the time. Now that would be great. ehh I guess for some its like a game and getting to avg matters. For me how I enjoy a winter has nothing to do with avg or how much snow actually falls. I grade on two factors. Significant events that are exciting and getting a period of some consistent snowcover. Could care less if I get to avg. I'll take a year where I get 20" from 2 storms and it stays cold and I keep snowcover for a few weeks over a year with 40" that fell 3" at a time and melted between storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ehh I guess for some its like a game and getting to avg matters. For me how I enjoy a winter has nothing to do with avg or how much snow actually falls. I grade on two factors. Significant events that are exciting and getting a period of some consistent snowcover. Could care less if I get to avg. I'll take a year where I get 20" from 2 storms and it stays cold and I keep snowcover for a few weeks over a year with 40" that fell 3" at a time and melted between storms. Complete agreement with it remaining cold. That is why tonight is great. It is nicely frigid and the snow is blowing. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 ehh I guess for some its like a game and getting to avg matters. For me how I enjoy a winter has nothing to do with avg or how much snow actually falls. I grade on two factors. Significant events that are exciting and getting a period of some consistent snowcover. Could care less if I get to avg. I'll take a year where I get 20" from 2 storms and it stays cold and I keep snowcover for a few weeks over a year with 40" that fell 3" at a time and melted between storms. I love what you described as much as any snow fan but I can't live in that box or I would be unhappy the vast majority of winters. In the last 20 years, this winter has been more "normal" to date than crappy. If it ends today it sucks ass but we're 1 good and 1 ok storm away front a totally acceptable season imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I love what you described as much as any snow fan but I can't live in that box or I would be unhappy the vast majority of winters. In the last 20 years, this winter has been more "normal" to date than crappy. If it ends today it sucks ass but we're 1 good and 1 ok storm away front a totally acceptable season imo.Oh I totally agree. If we can pull off a 6-10" storm and maybe a 3-6" somewhere as well then this ends up a decent year. But it's put up or shut up time. If all we get is a few more 1-3 " events then this year is a dud to me. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh I totally agree. If we can pull off a 6-10" storm and maybe a 3-6" somewhere as well then this ends up a decent year. But it's put up or shut up time. If all we get is a few more 1-3 " events then this year is a dud to me. We will see. Me too if that's how it shakes out. The year has been a TOTAL dud with blocking considering the expectations. If I don't get a 6" storm or don't hit at least 20" then it's a sub par year. No way to sugar coat that. It's at least avoided disaster status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 when the Canadian rolls in re next Monday, can someone please post what it shows? greatly appreciated, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 when the Canadian rolls in re next Monday, can someone please post what it shows? greatly appreciated, thanks 144 -- 1008mb MSLP C AL/MS border; 1036 H in Quebec with 1046 Hi behind it to the NW in Central Canada On the B and W maps at 144 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 144 -- 1008mb MSLP C AL/MS border; 1036 H in Quebec with other Highs behind it to the NW in Canada yeah, I've got that much on the Canadian site, but I was hoping for someone with one of the other pay sites to ante up with snowfall/rainfall info but day 6 looks fabulous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 yeah, I've got that much on the Canadian site, but I was hoping for someone with one of the other pay sites to ante up with snowfall/rainfall info but day 6 looks fabulous Oh ok 150 snowing in DCA, mid 1030s H in Quebec in near perfect position... 1007 L in E AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 Oh ok 150 snowing in DCA, mid 1030s H in Quebec in near perfect position... 1007 L in E AL P.S. Keep em' coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 P.S. Keep em' coming! 156 -- pouring snow at DCA (0.5 QPF line JUST touches DC metro), 1004 L near OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 156 -- pouring snow at DCA (0.5 QPF line JUST touches DC metro), 1004 L near OBX ......remaining calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 162 -- still snowing at DCA, system is moving away... 996mb MSLP east of ACY ~200 miles or so Snow map is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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