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February mid to long range threats discussion


Ji

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"Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there's a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter?  So in the two and half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.  About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanked Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967.  The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern US.  In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998."

 

The above quote was made on November 6th 2014.  Judah Cohen theory, while has some merit and should be taken into consideration, certainly did not play out well in terms of snow for the MA in 2014-2015.

Just watch him and others spin out of it because it snowed in New England a lot. 

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"Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there's a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter?  So in the two and half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse.  About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanked Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967.  The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern US.  In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998."

 

The above quote was made on November 6th 2014.  Judah Cohen theory, while has some merit and should be taken into consideration, certainly did not play out well in terms of snow for the MA in 2014-2015.

 

What are the odds Cohen comes out with a defense along the lines of "while the snowcover reached significant heights in mid-October, its significant retreat by the end of the month should have played a greater role in our calculations of the impact of the phenomenon, and will be factored into future predictions".

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What are the odds Cohen comes out with a defense along the lines of "while the snowcover reached significant heights in mid-October, its significant retreat by the end of the month should have played a greater role in our calculations of the impact of the phenomenon, and will be factored into future predictions".

Nah he has had his defense for a while now...that pesky unforeseen low pressure area over the Barents Sea had a negative effect on the perturbation of the polar vortex.

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What are the odds Cohen comes out with a defense along the lines of "while the snowcover reached significant heights in mid-October, its significant retreat by the end of the month should have played a greater role in our calculations of the impact of the phenomenon, and will be factored into future predictions".

He'd probably just say that his theory only adds a small amount of skill to what is a nearly impossible task (seasonal forecasting). And we won't have enough data to prove him right or wrong for probably 100 years, so....I guess that's yet another indictment on seasonal forecasting.

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He'd probably just say that his theory only adds a small amount of skill to what is a nearly impossible task (seasonal forecasting). And we won't have enough data to prove him right or wrong for probably 100 years, so....I guess that's yet another indictment on seasonal forecasting.

 

Bingo.

 

I'm actually surprised at all the vitriol being spouted against him.  He's trying to develop a new long-range forecasting tool which is bound to fail here and there.  Isn't advancement aided by occasional failure?

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Bingo.

 

I'm actually surprised at all the vitriol being spouted against him.  He's trying to develop a new long-range forecasting tool which is bound to fail here and there.  Isn't advancement aided by occasional failure?

Lack of snow makes people bitter. Plus, his theory really sucked this winter season.

 

MDstorm

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Crazy to think how much it snowed last march. One of the snowiest on record. St Patrick's day storm just powdered on us. Since reminiscing and Ian are the only two things we got. Were the dates last march 3/3, 3/17, and 3/26? With 3/29 for some?

 

I'm probably going to get in trouble for responding in the model thread but I couldn't resist being a weenie.

 

IMBY it was:

3/3 - 5 inches

3/16-17 - 7 inches

3/25 - 1 inch (mostly on grass)

3/30 - heavy snow, but no accumulation

 

Not to mention the record cold on the 3rd and 4th. Best. March. Ever. I doubt I'll ever see a March like that again here in my lifetime.

 

However... 3/25 seems like it could be the new 12/5 here, so ... :snowing:

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Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles

A lot more coastals than cutters on the members. Even enough members picking up on it to show a specific and not broad area at long leads.

Would make sense. Something comes up once the big amp starts to relax. Not blocking though so if anything happens the track will be tricky. Whatever happens at this point is fine.

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Everyone south of 40N is going to be hoping that Baja low hits them, but have a feeling the usual suspects are going to be the ones cheering.

My money (if anything happens) is on a mixed event for the se/ma. Not really an all snow look unless there is a real and well timed 50/50. It's going to be boring for a while. I've conceded to that.

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12z was about 30-40F warmer.

Yep. There is no defending the models. Anything that swings 30 degrees in 6 hours is simply a guess and a covering all bases. Anthing that shows a low along TN/KY border moving ese and 6 hours later shows it in western PA moving ne is resorting to guesswork. Mr Cohen and many like him come out with their favored theory each year and they ususally do not stand the test of time. Ideas offerd by KA, Mr zwyts and a few others do stand the test of time. Does the negative NAO really cause cold weather around DC or does eome other force cause the NAO to be negative? We do not know the answer to that and the current modeling system will Never be able to answer these questions and is really pretty much a present all possible outcomes over a 48 hour period and then lean on the one that was right come verification time. Models right now are more oriented toward continuing their current existence in their current state then getting down to the brass tacks of providing the best weather information that is possible.

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My money (if anything happens) is on a mixed event for the se/ma. Not really an all snow look unless there is a real and well timed 50/50. It's going to be boring for a while. I've conceded to that.

agree 100%

though day 10 ensembles are cold for the area and there's plenty of HP to our north, the NAO remains positive so that HP will be pushed aside quicker than JI can cancel the next 2 winters

my guess is that if it comes out, it heads for PIT like so many have recently

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Yep. There is no defending the models. Anything that swings 30 degrees in 6 hours is simply a guess and a covering all bases. Anthing that shows a low along TN/KY border moving ese and 6 hours later shows it in western PA moving ne is resorting to guesswork. Mr Cohen and many like him come out with their favored theory each year and they ususally do not stand the test of time. Ideas offerd by KA, Mr zwyts and a few others do stand the test of time. Does the negative NAO really cause cold weather around DC or does eome other force cause the NAO to be negative? We do not know the answer to that and the current modeling system will Never be able to answer these questions and is really pretty much a present all possible outcomes over a 48 hour period and then lean on the one that was right come verification time. Models right now are more oriented toward continuing their current existence in their current state then getting down to the brass tacks of providing the best weather information that is possible.

I'm going to take a guess and say that the models don't guess.

See...humans guess at stuff. Computers don't.

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As meaningless as it is....a fantasy storm is nice once in awhile.  One thing that keeps popping up in my mind with all this seasonal trend talk...NE was in the middle of writing off the winter exactly 5 years ago.  Seasonal trend had a focus on the MA.  In the end, the trend was broken and they scored a 15th ranked NESIS storm.  A weenie way of looking at things I know but I think this pattern has something in store for us before fishing season starts!

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As meaningless as it is....a fantasy storm is nice once in awhile.  One thing that keeps popping up in my mind with all this seasonal trend talk...NE was in the middle of writing off the winter exactly 5 years ago.  Seasonal trend had a focus on the MA.  In the end, the trend was broken and they scored a 15th ranked NESIS storm.  A weenie way of looking at things I know but I think this pattern has something in store for us before fishing season starts!

 

You have to remember its much easier for them to score in a crap pattern then us.

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