Ian Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 "Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there's a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter? So in the two and half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse. About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanked Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967. The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern US. In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998." The above quote was made on November 6th 2014. Judah Cohen theory, while has some merit and should be taken into consideration, certainly did not play out well in terms of snow for the MA in 2014-2015. Just watch him and others spin out of it because it snowed in New England a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro drops a half inch west of a line from Balt-IAD and a dusting east of that. LOL. Pity flakes. it will melt the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 it will melt the next day Nope, same day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 it will melt the next day So! SNOW is SNOW - I will take all I can get while it is winter! Pity or not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro and GFS quite different once the low reaches the coast heh. GFS keeps it off NE.. EURO off SC. Not that the Euro doesn't give NE love tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 "Remember how evidence was mounting last month that early snowfall was accumulating across Siberia? And remember how there's a theory that says this snowfall signals a cold winter? So in the two and half weeks since, the news for the winter-haters has, unfortunately, only gotten worse. About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanked Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967. The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern US. In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998." The above quote was made on November 6th 2014. Judah Cohen theory, while has some merit and should be taken into consideration, certainly did not play out well in terms of snow for the MA in 2014-2015. What are the odds Cohen comes out with a defense along the lines of "while the snowcover reached significant heights in mid-October, its significant retreat by the end of the month should have played a greater role in our calculations of the impact of the phenomenon, and will be factored into future predictions". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What are the odds Cohen comes out with a defense along the lines of "while the snowcover reached significant heights in mid-October, its significant retreat by the end of the month should have played a greater role in our calculations of the impact of the phenomenon, and will be factored into future predictions". Nah he has had his defense for a while now...that pesky unforeseen low pressure area over the Barents Sea had a negative effect on the perturbation of the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 What are the odds Cohen comes out with a defense along the lines of "while the snowcover reached significant heights in mid-October, its significant retreat by the end of the month should have played a greater role in our calculations of the impact of the phenomenon, and will be factored into future predictions". He'd probably just say that his theory only adds a small amount of skill to what is a nearly impossible task (seasonal forecasting). And we won't have enough data to prove him right or wrong for probably 100 years, so....I guess that's yet another indictment on seasonal forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Crazy to think how much it snowed last march. One of the snowiest on record. St Patrick's day storm just powdered on us. Since reminiscing and Ian are the only two things we got. Were the dates last march 3/3, 3/17, and 3/26? With 3/29 for some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro drops a half inch west of a line from Balt-IAD and a dusting east of that. LOL. Pity flakes. yes..maybe our cartopper will get better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yes..maybe our cartopper will get better and better The Tug is looking great for this weekend.. you still chasing there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 He'd probably just say that his theory only adds a small amount of skill to what is a nearly impossible task (seasonal forecasting). And we won't have enough data to prove him right or wrong for probably 100 years, so....I guess that's yet another indictment on seasonal forecasting. Bingo. I'm actually surprised at all the vitriol being spouted against him. He's trying to develop a new long-range forecasting tool which is bound to fail here and there. Isn't advancement aided by occasional failure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Seems legit. B9KEKRCCUAAqPW6.png-large.png 12z was about 30-40F warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Bingo. I'm actually surprised at all the vitriol being spouted against him. He's trying to develop a new long-range forecasting tool which is bound to fail here and there. Isn't advancement aided by occasional failure? Lack of snow makes people bitter. Plus, his theory really sucked this winter season. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Crazy to think how much it snowed last march. One of the snowiest on record. St Patrick's day storm just powdered on us. Since reminiscing and Ian are the only two things we got. Were the dates last march 3/3, 3/17, and 3/26? With 3/29 for some? I'm probably going to get in trouble for responding in the model thread but I couldn't resist being a weenie. IMBY it was: 3/3 - 5 inches 3/16-17 - 7 inches 3/25 - 1 inch (mostly on grass) 3/30 - heavy snow, but no accumulation Not to mention the record cold on the 3rd and 4th. Best. March. Ever. I doubt I'll ever see a March like that again here in my lifetime. However... 3/25 seems like it could be the new 12/5 here, so ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 yes..maybe our cartopper will get better and better in a winter like this one, I find cartoppers insidious reminders of how bad it's been I know you like/appreciate them, so I certainly hope for you and others who want one it works, but I prefer this pain to end quietly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2015 Author Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles Everyone south of 40N is going to be hoping that Baja low hits them, but have a feeling the usual suspects are going to be the ones cheering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z was about 30-40F warmer. The new GFS is having a miserable time with surface radiation it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles When haven't the Euro ensembles day10-15 shown a snow chance here this winter? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles A lot more coastals than cutters on the members. Even enough members picking up on it to show a specific and not broad area at long leads. Would make sense. Something comes up once the big amp starts to relax. Not blocking though so if anything happens the track will be tricky. Whatever happens at this point is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Euro has chance for storm day 11 per ensembles PD III. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Everyone south of 40N is going to be hoping that Baja low hits them, but have a feeling the usual suspects are going to be the ones cheering. My money (if anything happens) is on a mixed event for the se/ma. Not really an all snow look unless there is a real and well timed 50/50. It's going to be boring for a while. I've conceded to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 12z was about 30-40F warmer. Yep. There is no defending the models. Anything that swings 30 degrees in 6 hours is simply a guess and a covering all bases. Anthing that shows a low along TN/KY border moving ese and 6 hours later shows it in western PA moving ne is resorting to guesswork. Mr Cohen and many like him come out with their favored theory each year and they ususally do not stand the test of time. Ideas offerd by KA, Mr zwyts and a few others do stand the test of time. Does the negative NAO really cause cold weather around DC or does eome other force cause the NAO to be negative? We do not know the answer to that and the current modeling system will Never be able to answer these questions and is really pretty much a present all possible outcomes over a 48 hour period and then lean on the one that was right come verification time. Models right now are more oriented toward continuing their current existence in their current state then getting down to the brass tacks of providing the best weather information that is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 My money (if anything happens) is on a mixed event for the se/ma. Not really an all snow look unless there is a real and well timed 50/50. It's going to be boring for a while. I've conceded to that. agree 100% though day 10 ensembles are cold for the area and there's plenty of HP to our north, the NAO remains positive so that HP will be pushed aside quicker than JI can cancel the next 2 winters my guess is that if it comes out, it heads for PIT like so many have recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Yep. There is no defending the models. Anything that swings 30 degrees in 6 hours is simply a guess and a covering all bases. Anthing that shows a low along TN/KY border moving ese and 6 hours later shows it in western PA moving ne is resorting to guesswork. Mr Cohen and many like him come out with their favored theory each year and they ususally do not stand the test of time. Ideas offerd by KA, Mr zwyts and a few others do stand the test of time. Does the negative NAO really cause cold weather around DC or does eome other force cause the NAO to be negative? We do not know the answer to that and the current modeling system will Never be able to answer these questions and is really pretty much a present all possible outcomes over a 48 hour period and then lean on the one that was right come verification time. Models right now are more oriented toward continuing their current existence in their current state then getting down to the brass tacks of providing the best weather information that is possible. I'm going to take a guess and say that the models don't guess. See...humans guess at stuff. Computers don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 As meaningless as it is....a fantasy storm is nice once in awhile. One thing that keeps popping up in my mind with all this seasonal trend talk...NE was in the middle of writing off the winter exactly 5 years ago. Seasonal trend had a focus on the MA. In the end, the trend was broken and they scored a 15th ranked NESIS storm. A weenie way of looking at things I know but I think this pattern has something in store for us before fishing season starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 18z GFS 312-384 our only hope, until 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 As meaningless as it is....a fantasy storm is nice once in awhile. One thing that keeps popping up in my mind with all this seasonal trend talk...NE was in the middle of writing off the winter exactly 5 years ago. Seasonal trend had a focus on the MA. In the end, the trend was broken and they scored a 15th ranked NESIS storm. A weenie way of looking at things I know but I think this pattern has something in store for us before fishing season starts! You have to remember its much easier for them to score in a crap pattern then us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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