SnowGoose69 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I just posted in the NYC forum that I think eventually there is a Miller A this winter that makes everyone from DCA to BOS happy, it may be in March but I think it'll happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 IMO- this +pna pattern is here to stay. It's going to flex and relax and not be static where we are on the back side of the trough for days on end. The big hp next week is going to happen in some fashion and will likely squish things for a time. Our best chance at a big storm is something gliding under the ridge and teaming up with a ns shortwave. Otherwise, we can get clipped or just get lucky with a big ns dig. There are ways to do it. All we can do is hope something breaks our way. The +pna ridge could last for a month on the means. If we can't get a single accum event I'd be kinda surprised. I just posted in the NYC forum that I think eventually there is a Miller A this winter that makes everyone from DCA to BOS happy, it may be in March but I think it'll happen Exhibit A (sorry, but it was there so I thought I'd link to it regardless of the lead time) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=384ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150205+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Good thing is ensembles keep heights below normal after day 7 and possibly try to split the flow over the west coast near the end. If it doesn't show we're screwed. , I think the vortex in eastern Canada will own the pattern from day 8-12, maybe a clipper at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Edit just to clarify my post look at the anomalies. Westerlies cranking around Hawaii. Finally the nino like pattern we've been waiting for minus the NAO. Hopefully it isn't too late when this kicks in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Tonight's 00z NAM is near 60 for DCA on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the way the GFS looks at 105 hrs., it's almost as if heights have been lowered enough down our way so that we might be close on the trailing clipper not saying it will work, but it is a different look than prior runs thanks to the Monday/Tuesday storm meandering off the NE coast and giving NE another foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 the way the GFS looks at 105 hrs., it's almost as if heights have been lowered enough down our way so that we might be close on the trailing clipper not saying it will work, but it is a different look than prior runs thanks to the Monday/Tuesday storm meandering off the NE coast and giving NE another foot Thats a negative good sir Meanwhile a 1054 H is arriving in the Plains at 147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thats a negative good sir meh, like I said, "it's almost" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Thats a negative good sir Meanwhile a 1054 H is arriving in the Plains at 147 that's 76/77 type HP right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 In case you were wondering the GFS is awful at temps at range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS is identical 18z at 180hrs. It's slightly different but I've seen the NAM have bigger 6hr swings inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Ugly run thru 216. Hopefully redemption is served later. Kinda silly how cold punches are continually followed by systems that track to our north and hit SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 hey there's the gulf low shredded and strung to bits by a lakes low late run. quality all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 With cold shots/pv dropping being continously overdone all season at med/long leads, shouldn't we be encouraged by what is being advertised next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The op runs are showing a mini-drought for our area. The 240-hour total precip map from the GFS is below. The 384-hour map isn't much better. Snow-making should still work though. It might be a good time to go skiing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I just posted in the NYC forum that I think eventually there is a Miller A this winter that makes everyone from DCA to BOS happy, it may be in March but I think it'll happen Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I just posted in the NYC forum that I think eventually there is a Miller A this winter that makes everyone from DCA to BOS happy, it may be in March but I think it'll happen Any science behind that statement or is it just more wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 this pattern looks much more like a NINA than NINO, that's for sure stupid PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 this pattern looks much more like a NINA than NINO, that's for sure stupid PAC The Pacific circulation looks very Niño-ish. We've been screwed by the Atlantic. I've been reading up on the stratosphere and wave/stress interplay lately..if the QBO shear progresses normally, we could finally see a -NAM get going in March. I personally like the Feb15-Mar-5 window, based on tropical & strat forcing progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 The Pacific circulation looks very Niño-ish. We've been screwed by the Atlantic. I've been reading up on the stratosphere and wave/stress interplay lately..if the QBO shear progresses normally, we could finally see a -NAM get going in March. I personally like the Feb15-Mar-5 window, based on tropical & strat forcing progression. We've had a -NAM.....and a -GFS, and a -GGEM, and a -EURO for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 We've had a -NAM.....and a -GFS, and a -GGEM, and a -EURO for a while now. Lol, better than continuous letdowns in the 60-72hr range. Wait..actually nm on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I agree that the GFS looks dryish until the end of the run. The system coming through Sunday-Tuesday looks amusing. The surface low moves very slowly. Wouldn't surprise me if snow is diurnal/elevation/latitude driven. Wouldn't surprise me if the met known as snow goose is correct and that the good times roll during later third February through first week March. The cries of emotional desperation...moving north is the cure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Any science behind that statement or is it just more wishcasting I don't see it happening unless we flat out get lucky, with western ridge amp/placement, and some transient improvement on the Atlantic side. With the +NAO, as we have seen all winter, a Miller A is going to be problematic due to lower pressure over GL. High pressure over NE too far east(and moving east) and possibly some SE ridging. If we get one its likely a rainer for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I don't see it happening unless we flat out get lucky, with western ridge amp/placement, and some transient improvement on the Atlantic side. With the +NAO, as we have seen all winter, a Miller A is going to be problematic due to lower pressure over GL. High pressure over NE too far east(and moving east) and possibly some SE ridging. If we get one its likely a rainer for many. HM tweeted -nao by march!! pna to continue thru feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not saying it's right or that I know anything but the last two runs of the gfs op are effectively ending winter here after Presidents' Day...for a bit anyway...perhaps our January thaw and reshuffle before our Marchageddon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 Not saying it's right or that I know anything but the last two runs of the gfs op are effectively ending winter here after Presidents' Day...for a bit anyway...perhaps our January thaw and reshuffle before our Marchageddon? GFS ens mean looks generally cold throughout. Western ridge/eastern trough of varying amplitude and placement. Some N Atlantic blocking showing up, but too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 I just posted in the NYC forum that I think eventually there is a Miller A this winter that makes everyone from DCA to BOS happy, it may be in March but I think it'll happen Hopefully it starts at 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 In case you were wondering the GFS is awful at temps at range CFS is awful? That's like saying DC is bad at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 CFS is awful? That's like saying DC is bad at snow. GFS not CFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 6, 2015 Share Posted February 6, 2015 GFS not CFS Your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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