Ji Posted February 5, 2015 Author Share Posted February 5, 2015 Somehow I feel this is locked in for 40N and we aren't getting a reverse shift... hard to believe it was only a week ago. If this was March 2014, then maybe I'd have hope, but the PV just doesn't seem as strong this year... certainly not enough for us to get away with a +NAO like last year. Does the Ensemble mean from the euro give us hope? Seems to be alot of Lows south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Does the Ensemble mean from the euro give us hope? Seems to be alot of Lows south I think its way to early to give up on this one. Yeah its easy to be pessimistic given very recent history, but there are still a range of possible outcomes. Ens does show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Does the Ensemble mean from the euro give us hope? Seems to be alot of Lows south I wouldn't be surprised to see tomorrow's mean all clustered around Pittsburgh. That brutal ensemble shift from last week is still fresh in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised to see tomorrow's mean all clustered around Pittsburgh. That brutal ensemble shift from last week is still fresh in my mind. Should be today... That is when it happened last week for the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 6Z GFS ensembles were north of the Euro map with jackpots in NNE, so again it looks like the northward movement hasn't ended yet EDIT: and that would make sense because that's what is needed for the MA to get nothing vs. what the Euro snowfall map depicts and consistent with prior systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Honestly this isn't even going to be close, models are showing Mid to Upper 50s for Sunday and 50s for Monday. NWS had Sunday at 38 for me yesterday, 46 today and likely to go up more. Sunday might be the warmest day of the winter, some SREF members are showing 61-63 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Nothing has "inched" S this winter. Everything so far has went N. The Euro snow map is an identical pic of so many storms in the past xx years (lived in N NJ for 20 years). N NJ, NE PA, Hudson Valley, S New England get the snow. This winter is nothing out of the ordinary, except for maybe the frequency of snow up there. I know there are many features that can help predict a winter/storm, many I don't understand, but climo is usually right. This winter is for 40N. Places like Snowshoe are suffering as well. Their inflated totals are less than half of the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Could change by 12z I have noticed the new GFS almost never teases with fantasy snow bombs in the long range. Its no fun. This is the most significant, ringing endorsement of the upgrade I've heard so far. While it saddens our weeping weenie hearts, a model that better and more realistically presents the rarity of "snow bombs" is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Does the Ensemble mean from the euro give us hope? Seems to be alot of Lows south I was looking at this too, Ji. The mean low pass is pretty good, but I was looking at the individual snow maps and they didn't look good. Must be warm. Except for crackhead #51 that give DC like 25 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Yeah the GFS is THAT bad.....*crickets* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I honestly think the GFS has been very good this season. The EURO and Canadian tease the MA more than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I honestly think the GFS has been very good this season. The EURO and Canadian tease the MA more than the GFS. I meant in terms of the Sunday-Monday storm..should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I meant in terms of the Sunday-Monday storm..should have clarified. I wasn't talking to anyone in particular lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I agree, GFS has been damn good this season with all things considered. Big +PNA showing up in the LR, but we just can't seem to get a NAO, it's pretty depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I agree, GFS has been damn good this season with all things considered. Big +PNA showing up in the LR, but we just can't seem to get a NAO, it's pretty depressing. Maybe a massive +PNA helps dig storms 200 miles further south so long as the NAO isn't atrocious. Or am I just being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is nice.. no snow thru the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is nice.. no snow thru the run. Nice, massive storm at the end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is nice.. no snow thru the run. Right where we want it at this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 . The Euro will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is just a repeat of the current pattern through its entire run. Northern stream vorts passing to the north. Really a miserable run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO might blow this thing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO might blow this thing upWe might get our rain then wind on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO might blow this thing up my hopes were more that the Euro would blow up it's been awful in the mr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 EURO might blow this thing up Another Boston HECS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Day 4 Euro there's ur slp over PIT lol http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We were never really in on the sun-tues window. When there is little or no margin of error at d4+ leads it rarely works out. Once the lead wave trended north I mostly wrote it off but still enjoyed the 100 different looks with the trailing vort. Uncertainty keeps things interesting. Trend has been exactly what Ian said, faster and more consolidated/progressive was the most likely outcome. The whole cutoff and float thing just looked weird. Both vorts trended north...and both at about the same lead...as soon as they got into the 120 hour range or so...now the 3rd vort is trending north as well. I continue to track each event and as long as we keep the +PNA it does give us a chance but so long as the Atlantic is as bad as it has been each individual event is a low probability. The trend lately is definitely towards north trends in the medium range. This time models were grossly overdone on the east based blocking that showed up for a few days. Less blocking, even if it wasnt even ideal to begin with, and the whole thing shifts north. Pretty amazing we have done as bad as we have with the PNA and EPO as favorable as it has been, shows just how bad the atlantic has been. If we could get a period with just an OK atlantic pattern I feel something would work out. I do think as we head into later Feb as the wavelengths shorten we might increase our chances of a fluke in this type patter as some of these systems may cut off further south and the mean trough wants to be over the east. That could at least salvage a end of year storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 looks like this might be a good time period to regroup and see if we can get a pattern change for the remainder of the season. we're stuck in a warm/wet, cold/dry pattern and have been for what seems like all season. surprising to me how we haven't scored at least one areawide snowstorm in the last 2 months. those clippers/vorts just aren't digging far enough west/south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 looks like this might be a good time period to regroup and see if we can get a pattern change for the remainder of the season. we're stuck in a warm/wet, cold/dry pattern and have been for what seems like all season. surprising to me how we haven't scored at least one areawide snowstorm in the last 2 months. those clippers/vorts just aren't digging far enough west/south. They rarely do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 We were never really in on the sun-tues window. When there is little or no margin of error at d4+ leads it rarely works out. Once the lead wave trended north I mostly wrote it off but still enjoyed the 100 different looks with the trailing vort. Uncertainty keeps things interesting. Trend has been exactly what Ian said, faster and more consolidated/progressive was the most likely outcome. The whole cutoff and float thing just looked weird. Well after that Euro--got anything else for us to track? Must be something at d8-d10 that we track to failure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Both vorts trended north...and both at about the same lead...as soon as they got into the 120 hour range or so...now the 3rd vort is trending north as well. I continue to track each event and as long as we keep the +PNA it does give us a chance but so long as the Atlantic is as bad as it has been each individual event is a low probability. The trend lately is definitely towards north trends in the medium range. This time models were grossly overdone on the east based blocking that showed up for a few days. Less blocking, even if it wasnt even ideal to begin with, and the whole thing shifts north. Pretty amazing we have done as bad as we have with the PNA and EPO as favorable as it has been, shows just how bad the atlantic has been. If we could get a period with just an OK atlantic pattern I feel something would work out. I do think as we head into later Feb as the wavelengths shorten we might increase our chances of a fluke in this type patter as some of these systems may cut off further south and the mean trough wants to be over the east. That could at least salvage a end of year storm. When this thing first appeared it looked like a decent chance. One of my concerns was that even the good runs we're too close for comfort with slp track or required some convoluted phasing/cutting off. But it was still plenty far out in time to remain skeptical but quite interested. Op models are definitely not going to nail a complicated evolution d5+. Losing the front runner was pretty much the end of me believing it was going to happen for us. I was never attached to the event so it doesn't really sting much. The clipper gone blizzard disaster certainly stung a lot more. Next week and beyond looks like any event would be weak and sneaky. Maybe something bigger as the sharp amplification backs off. I'm not enthused by what I'm seeing for now. Pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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