Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 the problem is probably the kicker giving just enough push to mess up the vort from deepening It deepened a bit this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I think the 500mb evolution is an improvement...a stronger frontrunner isn't a bad thing...it will dig more and the trailer will catch up... At least we don't have to worry as much about a drifting cutoff giving us 2" of rain. Lol I really still have no idea how this will play out. Little pieces so close together are giving numerical models fits. Looks like odds still favor some snow. I agree about the shift towards colder temps being a good step. Euro was pretty cold for the second wave. Hopefully it keeps that look and adds some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 where's Yoda with the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 cold looks to be set loose after 177 hrs on the gfs nice ridge too....maybe we can keep it for a few clippers at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 where's Yoda with the GEM? You want to see another rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 You want to see another rainstorm? it's out that far already? how much qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 it's out that far already? how much qpf? Out to 120.. paltry QPF 123 coastal gets started... and we rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 First fort stronger than the 12z run through 18z Saturday. Much stronger. 1004mb Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GGEM is hilarious...blowtorch, then some late developing warm coastal...it's raining on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 UKIE looks meh... 96 SLP near Indy.... 120 just NE of ORF... and 144 its up the coast she goes. Dont think the 1033 H north of Maine at 120 is going to help much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 UK might be a decent hit North of the M/D line. Low appears to stay to our south at least on the 24 hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ....EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Euro looks like the GFS...very dry....late sinking front....maybe an inch of snow the end for DC.....at least it isn't a soaking rainstorm...the whole thing is like 0.25" for me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 ....EURO? drizzle followed by sporadic flurries. nothing to see here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I've pretty much lost interest in this event....the details will change, but is looking like a 40N event...hopefully I can snag a little light snow on Monday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 By this time tomorrow night, i will be getting less than 1" at the rate this map has been dropping. This is the same screw as this past Sunday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 How do these guys lock in a storm 5 days out with such ease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 By this time tomorrow night, i will be getting less than 1" at the rate this map has been dropping. This is the same screw as this past Sunday's storm. . I never saw this next 7 days as much of a threat around here. It looks like the only interesting thing will be to see if this can come south a little and give more of us some measurable snow or if it trends north and brings more people into the screw zone. The final snow map is not likely to look like this, though. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 24hr snow accum. Wow... Compare this one to 00z.Edit: this is total snow... But either way I never thought that there was potential for 18 plus inches.... Albeit in the 2015 ne snow belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Not sure this is going to play out exactly as currently advertised. Just looks wonky. Probably light/moderate overrunning initially but as the front sags further south early next week a low should form...somewhere. If the cold air seeps southward, and with plenty of colder/drier air to the north, could see a mixed precip event transitioning to snow. Key is that final piece of energy and if it really does anything... and how far south it can track/ how much cold air we can get in here by then. Still some potential for better trends for Mon-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Last week it was Thursday night's runs that shifted north... A shift that basically zeroed in on what was to be a general consensus among the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 honestly, we need to just close this and every other medium or long term thread this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If I had been looking at this run of 6z GFS last year I'd say hey, we only need that arctic front to sag another 100 miles south, we're still 84h+ out from the start, this is definitely possible. Obviously hasn't happened this year....but you never know maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 If I had been looking at this run of 6z GFS last year I'd say hey, we only need that arctic front to sag another 100 miles south, we're still 84h+ out from the start, this is definitely possible. Obviously hasn't happened this year....but you never know maybe we get lucky. As as this is, I'm not out until 0z tonight. This event has so many parallels that maybe something will shift. Heck, I'd be happy if it just shifted further north to screw SNE. I'm in a bad mood. We don't need to share snow because we have no snow to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 As as this is, I'm not out until 0z tonight. This event has so many parallels that maybe something will shift. Heck, I'd be happy if it just shifted further north to screw SNE. I'm in a bad mood. We don't need to share snow because we have no snow to share. I'm going to track it of course just because there's nothing else to track for us. But you never know, that high pushes a little more, the arctic boundary sets up a little south of DC instead of southern PA and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I looked at the entire 6z GFS op run just for kicks and nothing jumped out at me. Not even fantasy snow in mid Feb. The pattern as depicted is just not a snow or even frozen pattern for the MA and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I looked at the entire 6z GFS op run just for kicks and nothing jumped out at me. Not even fantasy snow in mid Feb. The pattern as depicted is just not a snow or even frozen pattern for the MA and that's it. Could change by 12z I have noticed the new GFS almost never teases with fantasy snow bombs in the long range. Its no fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 honestly, we need to just close this and every other medium or long term thread this year Now you know you would have withdrawal. On another note, lol at people constantly obsessing over/posting snow maps, 4+ days out. Next to worthless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I posted something about a GFS run earlier in the week that Boston may end up with like 7 feet of snow on the ground if that run verified. Well obviously that was a joke with compaction. But they may very well end up with close to 4 feet if these runs keep going the way they are. They just cant miss this winter. Should end up a crazy 2 week period for them for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Last week it was Thursday night's runs that shifted north... A shift that basically zeroed in on what was to be a general consensus among the models.Somehow I feel this is locked in for 40N and we aren't getting a reverse shift... hard to believe it was only a week ago.If this was March 2014, then maybe I'd have hope, but the PV just doesn't seem as strong this year... certainly not enough for us to get away with a +NAO like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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