Amped Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 21z SREF looks way north of the 18z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 The pattern has real potential. Check out the 500 mb composite analogs. At the lower right, check out the last analog: 02/05/1995. This storm is in Kocin's book. 500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif that isn't a great pattern...2/4/95 was a thread the needle storm...happened all because of a steroid ridge....being the 10th analog isn't that impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 that isn't a great pattern...2/4/95 was a thread the needle storm...happened all because of a steroid ridge....being the 10th analog isn't that impressive d10-15 means are pretty impressive. India to Baja ridge bridge. I can't recall the last time I saw something like that. What it means for us is hard to say. If vort spacing remains in the 2-4 day range the law of averages should catch up to us. Hopefully we can keep separation from tracking and despondency in this thread. There will be no shortage of things to keep an eye on. I'm in a total take what I can get mode (as I'm sure you are). It's probably going to snow multiple times over the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 yeah, NAM is north like sref's with the first system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 "yes" in this winter I knew the answer already sadly. Maybe lady luck will throw us a bone at some point. Though she'll probably overthrow us and it will get picked off by someone playing for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I knew the answer already sadly. Maybe lady luck will throw us a bone at some point. Though she'll probably overthrow us and it will get picked off by someone playing for Boston. well, that's the first system which we know would be north but, one would think that even further north would put us completely out of the game for #2, but there's always something wacky that can't be considered I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 new sref has the first system way north with the heaviest precip axis way north of Boston and even north of NY state I don't think any of the models showed that so far not that it's correct, but maybe indicative of a continued north trend? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_087_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150204+21+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model I am not sure how much if any influence that initial wave is going to have on our system Mon-Tues. There are 3 vorts diving down and its the second and third that spawn the storm we might get. In my opinion the second vort is the most important one, recently the runs have been further north with that second system and that is what was more of an issue than that initial wave being north. Perhaps more separation might even be better...but as I am sure you will agree this year probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's so far north on the NAM it doesn't even look like the same setup as 18z. I wonder where this is headed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 d10-15 means are pretty impressive. India to Baja ridge bridge. I can't recall the last time I saw something like that. What it means for us is hard to say. If vort spacing remains in the 2-4 day range the law of averages should catch up to us. Hopefully we can keep separation from tracking and despondency in this thread. There will be no shortage of things to keep an eye on. I'm in a total take what I can get mode (as I'm sure you are). It's probably going to snow multiple times over the next 15 days. it is a pretty cool look...too bad the atlantic isn't a cool look...we'll have chances to score though....hard to believe we haven't done better in a ridiculous +PDO winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I am not sure how much if any influence that initial wave is going to have on our system Mon-Tues. There are 3 vorts diving down and its the second and third that spawn the storm we might get. In my opinion the second vort is the most important one, recently the runs have been further north with that second system and that is what was more of an issue than that initial wave being north. Perhaps more separation might even be better...but as I am sure you will agree this year probably not if you look at the 850map in SE Canada, the cold air is never making south, and each run keeps it further north...literally locked up north of the front the flow is zonal on the NAM this run across the country and near zonal on the GFS come 0Z Sunday the original premise suggested the other day and less so today was cold air was to bleed south...I don't see how any of it makes it the way things are progressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's so far north on the NAM it doesn't even look like the same setup as 18z. I wonder where this is headed one negative is its cutting off the high from being able to have much influence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 if you look at the 850map in SE Canada, the cold air is never making south, and each run keeps it further north...literally locked up north of the front the flow is zonal on the NAM this run across the country and near zonal on the GFS come 0Z Sunday the original premise suggested the other day and less so today was cold air was to bleed south...I don't see how any of it makes it the way things are progressing yea I noted that in my other post, and the trends of pushing the thermal boundary further north is making this a much more complicated system for us to do well and I agree complicated is not good. The trends have not been good since last night but I am not throwing in the towel yet. I may soon if these trends keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 yea I noted that in my other post, and the trends of pushing the thermal boundary further north is making this a much more complicated system for us to do well and I agree complicated is not good. The trends have not been good since last night but I am not throwing in the towel yet. I may soon if these trends keep up. I don't even want to think of how many times that phrase, or something similar, has been posted in here the last 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 on the other hand, let everything go zonal, reshuffle in a couple of days, and then we sit down with a new dealer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 it is a pretty cool look...too bad the atlantic isn't a cool look...we'll have chances to score though....hard to believe we haven't done better in a ridiculous +PDO winter December was a lost cause mostly. And that applied to the whole east half of the us. January was fair enough overall. Jury is out for Feb. Last year was unexpectedly "in sync" and this year is very much out of sync so far. The Atlantic side seems to run in some sort of longer term cycle. At least to me it appears that way. Blocking or lack thereof seems to come in bunches. Not evenly spaced of course but there is something more than equal odds each year that I'm not sure anyone really understands yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 that isn't a great pattern...2/4/95 was a thread the needle storm...happened all because of a steroid ridge....being the 10th analog isn't that impressive Not great but not horrid or at least not horrid if we hadn't been screwed already with ridge in the west so much this winter because of the positive NAO and bad luck. Last year we probably had more than our share of good luck, now we're balancing it out with bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Nope, it was a solid Mid-Atlantic storm (except southern MD and the eastern shore) http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html which is a pretty big part of the mid Atlantic states.....that storm is a Delmarva screwjob... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 00z GFS not happening for us. Edit: okay north of the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is north with the slp is NVA at 102 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 00z GFS, NAM, GGEM, JMA, EURO, etc. not happening for us. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 GFS is colder....just not much precip to work with so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 gfs is a weak POS tonight... last few runs have moved towards a less amplified H5 solution which is not good for us given the surface starts out crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's just dry and not sure how we can get with the frontrunner being stronger....It's colder though and maybe that is a silver lining...most of DC metro spends all day Monday at or below 32....DCA is 32 or colder from 7am on, and a snow sounding by Noon or so....only about 1" probably.....one way to get an event might be to simply trend colder and get Monday/Monday night wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 It's just dry and not sure how we can get with the frontrunner being stronger....It's colder though and maybe that is a silver lining...most of DC metro spends all day Monday at or below 32....DCA is 32 or colder from 7am on, and a snow sounding by Noon or so....only about 1" probably.....one way to get an event might be to simply trend colder and get Monday/Monday night wetter amplify the vort and you get that, but the trend is going against us there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 2nd run with an unimpressive h5 progression. Door is still open for some sort of colder/wetter solution after the first wave misses north but overall nothing about the run looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Don't really trust this setup until the S/W get on shore. It all looks like whale puke shrapnel before it amplifies, I see know reason why the troff can't dig a lot less/more 300miles east/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 amplify the vort and you get that, but the trend is going against us there the frontrunner is stronger and that isn't helping us....I still have some outside hope that there will be a phase and the consolidated vort will take a better track...even without that, seeing it colder is better...the colder the better chance of a small event and that we can cash in if the trailer is more formidable.....It is subtle but not as subtle as one might think..MBY is colder much earlier than at 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 Don't really trust this setup until the S/W get on shore. It all looks like whale puke shrapnel before it amplifies, I see know reason why the troff can't dig a lot less/more 300miles east/west. I think the 500mb evolution is an improvement...a stronger frontrunner isn't a bad thing...it will dig more and the trailer will catch up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 I think the 500mb evolution is an improvement...a stronger frontrunner isn't a bad thing...it will dig more and the trailer will catch up... the problem is probably the kicker giving just enough push to mess up the vort from deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5, 2015 Share Posted February 5, 2015 As I read this thread on my late night ride home from NYC, I feel like a new dealer does need to step in. Mitch is likely right. I would be even willing (like I have a choice) to punt the first 10 days of February if it leads us to HECS/BECS land. Probably won't happen, but I do my best to stay positive. I believe in good karma. And one day soon, Boston will lose a game, and we'll score the coup. Of course by then, Boston be like good! We've been digging for weeks. It's all yours. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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