Ji Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 Pretty much a sideways run all things considered. If the lead vort is going to be more amped and secondary is quick, it needs to be further south to get a real storm. Kinda feels like another miss to the north. Too close for comfort the entire time. We'll know our fate soon. sounds like the GGEM solution is now a complete outier. This will be a modest winter storm at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 24hr snow accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Low could track further south into wv as well. It was a big change at h5 and the hp to the north is really strong. Plenty of cold to tap. Comes in no problem after the slp gets se of us. As you said, it could be quite a mess. Rain-zr-sleet-snow progression with temps falling the whole time. I like that we have no low pressure to our NW...even as the big high moves east, we still have a broad area of 1028mb+ to our north and northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 24hr snow accum. I would take that map in a heartbeat. Looks great for everyone Baltimore and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I would take that map in a heartbeat. Looks great for everyone Baltimore and north. careful...that's a familiar snow map at this range for the Euro this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 sounds like the GGEM solution is now a complete outier. This will be a modest winter storm at best It probably won't be a winter storm period other than the fact that it technically occurs in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I expect more major shifts.. and I am bitter and expect it to be a major shift that shafts us.. BUT it is a different set up than anything normal.. so models will struggle.. something interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 nobody cares about baltimore and north. if this is a frederick and east storm, that's close enough to chase, so i'd still be "in" with that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 24 hours of precip of varying types with temps at or below 32 would be a noteworthy event if it goes down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 24 hours of precip of varying types with temps at or below 32 would be a noteworthy event if it goes down like that. Go back to the pre-blizzard thread you'll see almost the exact same posts. Same days of threat too.. could just copy/paste for a while maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Go back to the pre-blizzard thread you'll see almost the exact same posts. Same days of threat too.. could just copy/paste for a while maybe. I get that, I do. But the observation stands, IF we were to actually get that, it would be of interest. We really didn't get that with the blizzard the way it came together. But, yes, if it evolves like the blizzard did, that would suck. I am holding out hope that we can get precip in here for awhile with the focus not being consolidated to the north. Maybe just this once. And, if not, I am sure someone will be along to tell me, don't worry about, THIS time the missed opportunity will be exactly what we need for a 50/50 so the NEXT system will pay off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Good if the lead vort digs more. Problem is the lead vort and slp is stronger so the midlevels are jacked up until it slides underneath us. Big change in evolution and speed. Similar to what Ian was thinking earlier. We do get some snow because the low tracks far enough south. Rain to snow deal subject to change a lot. I'm not enthused after the run. sounds like we just need a slightly better high to the north. at least the models are starting to key in on something it seems. we have climo in our favor, maybe with a decent enough high to the north, we can focus more on the track. i'll take parking lot/sidewalk stickage with minimal main street coverage at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 That snow map is a bit overdone. It looks like .4-.5" of precip with 850s below 0C north of Baltimore. DC gets 1-2" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 careful...that's a familiar snow map at this range for the Euro this year Oh don't worry i know that has a 10% chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Go back to the pre-blizzard thread you'll see almost the exact same posts. Same days of threat too.. could just copy/paste for a while maybe. Unless the models are showing this solution at 12Z Saturday there is no reason to even get remotely excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I wish I had saved images from pre blizzard. I swear the evolution at 500 seems like a copy almost over the eastern 2/3rds of CONUS region. Not that we'll see the same result.. and we didn't get the stripe from range (yet) but deja vu kinda. Its close but some significant differences. h5 digs down further east, and not nearly as far south. Seems to bottom out around central VA this time. last time it rounded way to our south before coming back around and phasing over new england. That was part of the problem for us last time. The upper energy got disconnected with the surface system and the mid level energy. As the trough crossed our area it was a discombobulated mess. It finally all came together in time for New England, big surprise. Last time the surface track was good but H5 was off...this time H5 is good but the surface might be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Its close but some significant differences. h5 digs down further east, and not nearly as far south. Seems to bottom out around central VA this time. last time it rounded way to our south before coming back around and phasing over new england. That was part of the problem for us last time. The upper energy got disconnected with the surface system and the mid level energy. As the trough crossed our area it was a discombobulated mess. It finally all came together in time for New England, big surprise. Last time the surface track was good but H5 was off...this time H5 is good but the surface might be off. Wouldn't we much rather have a good H5?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Go back to the pre-blizzard thread you'll see almost the exact same posts. Same days of threat too.. could just copy/paste for a while maybe. the 6 hr. qpf totals for Boston, in fact, are increasing on the Euro just like they did pre-bliz it's an absolute rerun, or will be shown to be on the models in a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 sounds like we just need a slightly better high to the north. at least the models are starting to key in on something it seems. we have climo in our favor, maybe with a decent enough high to the north, we can focus more on the track. i'll take parking lot/sidewalk stickage with minimal main street coverage at this point. There's a 1039 se of hudson bay when it counts. The bigger problem is the upper air pattern. We simply need the low further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 with pd2 (i know, terrible example) we had a little event friday evening followed by a high pressing down before the big overrunning. this sounds opposite. is the high retreating in this case? yea its a similar deal just everything is displaced north initially...the h5 ends up in the same place but gets there in a very different way. What is similar is the idea of waves along a boundary producing WAA precip over a cold airmass locked into the northeast. Problem is the high is just further north then we want it. Its actually pushing down the whole time but the trough axis starts so far east, we are on the back side, so the initial wave goes well north of us, everything retrogrades as the h5 vort digs into the mid atlantic but we need it to bomb out fast for it to work out since the surface is all messed up by the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Its close but some significant differences. h5 digs down further east, and not nearly as far south. Seems to bottom out around central VA this time. last time it rounded way to our south before coming back around and phasing over new england. That was part of the problem for us last time. The upper energy got disconnected with the surface system and the mid level energy. As the trough crossed our area it was a discombobulated mess. It finally all came together in time for New England, big surprise. Last time the surface track was good but H5 was off...this time H5 is good but the surface might be off. It's not exactly the same and the sfc is a bit different to begin with but not sure what you're talking about wrt to bottoming in central VA. Both the Euro and GFS have the trailing piece of the two vorticity areas traveling together reaching northern FL. Sadly no one ever posts 500mb maps so I couldn't find one in the old thread. There really should be a good model archive page at this point in time. Either way back in this range on that one we still thought we were jackpoting from a clipper. I certainly wouldn't expect the same thing for now but conjuring up thoughts I feel quite like I did prior to that event when trying to figure out what was going to happen. Lots of "too bad it's strung out".. "it's so close to something big" .. "maybe that trailing vort is messing it up".. such and such and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wouldn't the amount of snowcover to our north at least help slightly in cooling us down more than modeled with the HP to our north as modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 the 6 hr. qpf totals for Boston, in fact, are increasing on the Euro just like they did pre-bliz it's an absolute rerun, or will be shown to be on the models in a few more days I'm not expecting it.. But I'm kind of expecting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 sounds like the GGEM solution is now a complete outier. This will be a modest winter storm at best I don't think anything is settled yet, but completely over amped might not be our best shot at snow anyways. Shift this south 50 miles and its a pretty good run for most of us. This remains a threat, and I do think a more amped system is still possible its over 120 hours away still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm not expecting it.. But I'm kind of expecting it. personally, I'm expecting the models to trend south with the 2nd system, which will get us all excited, but then correct north between 48-72 hrs. that seems to be the M.O. this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wouldn't the amount of snowcover to our north at least help slightly in cooling us down more than modeled with the HP to our north as modeled? The models account for snowcover. It can happen where that cooling is more effective then modeled, but it's not something to count on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wouldn't we much rather have a good H5?. I would like to have both for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's not exactly the same and the sfc is a bit different to begin with but not sure what you're talking about wrt to bottoming in central VA. Both the Euro and GFS have the trailing piece of the two vorticity areas traveling together reaching northern FL. Sadly no one ever posts 500mb maps so I couldn't find one in the old thread. There really should be a good model archive page at this point in time. Either way back in this range on that one we still thought we were jackpoting from a clipper. I certainly wouldn't expect the same thing for now but conjuring up thoughts I feel quite like I did prior to that event when trying to figure out what was going to happen. Lots of "too bad it's strung out".. "it's so close to something big" .. "maybe that trailing vort is messing it up".. such and such and such. You are totally right...I was looking at the Euro and an older run of the GFS, those both had a much better H5. Euro is really really close to a good solution, had the low cut off for a time over central VA. Just slightly too positively tilted and doesnt really bomb the low. GFS is a mess again, very very similar to last time. Still could correct to a more consolidated system and that would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Can anybody explain why the heavier precipitation is in new England when the low is by the outer banks? Seems like the mid Atlantic usually gets the heaviest precip in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So far the EPS (through 4 days) has a slightly stronger high (the mean, at least). It also looks like the second vort is a bit stronger than the previous run (again, the mean) which I take is good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.