February mid to long range threats discussion

[Ian]

Euro is good for now.

[McQuackleton]

[AlaskaETC]

Sort of slides east like it did in the 0z run. Gives us snow though, still coming at 168 hours.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

At this point, as long as "something" is still there and halfway decent looking, that's a good sign.  How cold does the Euro get during and after that storm?  Seems earlier it had some very nippy temps around that time.

[McQuackleton]

Storm is out at 180. This is totals:

 

[84 Hour NAM]

I see that it found a way to destroy NE. They just can't miss.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I see that it found a way to destroy NE. They just can't miss.

 

Think that includes the stuff they get from the blizzard tonight and tomorrow.  That 180-h plot is total through that time.

[aldie 22]

I see that it found a way to destroy NE. They just can't miss.

That includes today and tomorrow

[McQuackleton]

Was hoping for more.. still a ways away.

[aldie 22]

meh...weak

You're hopeless...lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Was hoping for more.. still a ways away.

 

Yup, still a week out, which is a veritable eternity in model time!  Like I said, at least something is there and looking halfway decent.  Anyone seen if the Euro temps still get pretty frigid around that time?

[McQuackleton]

Yup, still a week out, which is a veritable eternity in model time!  Like I said, at least something is there and looking halfway decent.  Anyone seen if the Euro temps still get pretty frigid around that time?

 

Temps in the high 20s to very low 30s.

[kurtstack]

As Bob would say several globals are onto a similar evolution, so all we can say at this lead is the signal for a storm is still there. 

[AlaskaETC]

Euro has another storm brewing in the GOM at 208 hours, temperatures are pretty cold at 192 hours, similar to last night.

[Interstate]

Euro is good for now.

 

They are all good until we get within 3 days.

[AlaskaETC]

Euro has another storm at 240 hours, it's too warm though.

 

Edit: GLL destroys us again.

[HighStakes]

Yup, still a week out, which is a veritable eternity in model time!  Like I said, at least something is there and looking halfway decent.  Anyone seen if the Euro temps still get pretty frigid around that time?

Coldest day on Euro would be Tue. Single digits in the morning for most. Far north/west burbs near 0. Freezing line for highs on Tues. on the VA/NC border. Highs in this area 20-25 from north to south.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Coldest day on Euro would be Tue. Single digits in the morning for most. Far north/west burbs near 0. Freezing line for highs on Tues. on the VA/NC border. Highs in this area 20-25 from north to south.

 

Thanks.  Guess that's kind of similar to the previous run, but sounds like that lifts out pretty quickly soon after.  Not that such details should matter at this point LOL!

[AlaskaETC]

This looks good to me.

 

[Ian]

They are all good until we get within 3 days.

Maybe it will find a new way to screw us. 

[84 Hour NAM]

Maybe it will find a new way to screw us. 

 

Southern slider is an oldie but a goodie.

[Bob Chill]

Maybe it will find a new way to screw us.

NADS storm! I've blocked it out. Feb 2013?

[mitchnick]

NADS storm! I've blocked it out. Feb 2013?

Bob, have the eps come out yet re the next "possibility"?

I refuse to call any wx event a threat anymore except to my mental health

[Bob Chill]

Bob, have the eps come out yet re the next "possibility"?

I refuse to call any wx event a threat anymore except to my mental health

Mon-tue look ok. Mslp a bit east but more of a coastal look and not a miller b and or clipper. 50/50 and hp to the n.

We could get some waa snow later this week even with the north track. But it wouldn't likely add up to much.

[mitchnick]

Mon-tue look ok. Mslp a bit east but more of a coastal look and not a miller b and or clipper. 50/50 and hp to the n.

We could get some waa snow later this week even with the north track. But it wouldn't likely add up to much.

Thank you Sir.

[baseball0618]

Mon-tue look ok. Mslp a bit east but more of a coastal look and not a miller b and or clipper. 50/50 and hp to the n.

We could get some waa snow later this week even with the north track. But it wouldn't likely add up to much.

If that baja low completely ejects east then it's game on. 

[TowsonWeather]

NADS storm! I've blocked it out. Feb 2013?

One of my best (only?) real contributions to this board: naming the "NADS" storm.

 

Dubious distinction, I know. But it's all I got, so I'm clinging to it ;-)

[Bob Chill]

One thing the gefs and euro ens completely agree on is a raging +AO/NAO during the first week of Feb. It's a beast look considering it's in the long range. Must be quite a bit of agreement. Miraculously, we are spared from roasting because of a +pna and ridging around AK. Euro mean is shows a +3 AO. Anything type of wrapped up storm is likely going to cut with that look. Luckily it's d10+ but still. 

 

The early next week period is what we should focus on and not worry about d10+ stuff anyways. OP runs are going to jump around a lot but there are a number of ways we can do ok. First would be a simple clipper. Second would be a digging vort that taps some energy ejecting from the shortwave from the sw and becomes a miller a or hybrid. Third would be a piece of southern stream energy that produces overrunning into an arctic boundary. Lastly would be a big dog full phase. OTOH, it could be another miller B screwjob, no storm at all, or rain from a vort tracking N of us. 

 

How it evolves and whether there is a legitimate storm simply can't be known so riding the op emotional roller coaster is a waste of time and energy.With the northern stream apparently driving the bus, there is simply no way to try to pin down pieces of energy or timing and it's going to be frustrating but similar to how it's been all month. 

 

The cold shot seems pretty legit mid next week. Anything can happen with that kind of airmass. Beyond that we just better hope the big +ao/nao is a digital bad dream. 

[mitchnick]

One thing the gefs and euro ens completely agree on is a raging +AO/NAO during the first week of Feb. It's a beast look considering it's in the long range. Must be quite a bit of agreement. Miraculously, we are spared from roasting because of a +pna and ridging around AK. Euro mean is shows a +3 AO. Anything type of wrapped up storm is likely going to cut with that look. Luckily it's d10+ but still. 

 

The early next week period is what we should focus on and not worry about d10+ stuff anyways. OP runs are going to jump around a lot but there are a number of ways we can do ok. First would be a simple clipper. Second would be a digging vort that taps some energy ejecting from the shortwave from the sw and becomes a miller a or hybrid. Third would be a piece of southern stream energy that produces overrunning into an arctic boundary. Lastly would be a big dog full phase. OTOH, it could be another miller B screwjob, no storm at all, or rain from a vort tracking N of us. 

 

How it evolves and whether there is a legitimate storm simply can't be known so riding the op emotional roller coaster is a waste of time and energy.With the northern stream apparently driving the bus, there is simply no way to try to pin down pieces of energy or timing and it's going to be frustrating but similar to how it's been all month. 

 

The cold shot seems pretty legit mid next week. Anything can happen with that kind of airmass. Beyond that we just better hope the big +ao/nao is a digital bad dream. 

Cohen fail continues

[Fozz]

One thing the gefs and euro ens completely agree on is a raging +AO/NAO during the first week of Feb. It's a beast look considering it's in the long range. Must be quite a bit of agreement. Miraculously, we are spared from roasting because of a +pna and ridging around AK. Euro mean is shows a +3 AO. Anything type of wrapped up storm is likely going to cut with that look. Luckily it's d10+ but still. 

 

The early next week period is what we should focus on and not worry about d10+ stuff anyways. OP runs are going to jump around a lot but there are a number of ways we can do ok. First would be a simple clipper. Second would be a digging vort that taps some energy ejecting from the shortwave from the sw and becomes a miller a or hybrid. Third would be a piece of southern stream energy that produces overrunning into an arctic boundary. Lastly would be a big dog full phase. OTOH, it could be another miller B screwjob, no storm at all, or rain from a vort tracking N of us. 

 

How it evolves and whether there is a legitimate storm simply can't be known so riding the op emotional roller coaster is a waste of time and energy.With the northern stream apparently driving the bus, there is simply no way to try to pin down pieces of energy or timing and it's going to be frustrating but similar to how it's been all month. 

 

The cold shot seems pretty legit mid next week. Anything can happen with that kind of airmass. Beyond that we just better hope the big +ao/nao is a digital bad dream. 

 

I just deflated