Nor Easter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 UKMET: @120 @144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I would take a chance with the canadian solution agree...but you and me are in a much more favorable location to "win" with marginal temperature situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 heavy snow? Not that it means anything at past 100 hrs, but 0.30"+ liquid with a snow sounding and temps in the mid to upper 20s would be the heaviest snow this area has seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 lead vort goes way north (we already knew this) gives a moderate snow to NY state on the euro, second system is incoming at hr 108 over Ohio, if anything its going negative too soon and pumping the heights ahead of it too much. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 thru 120 hrs, Euro looks like a nice snow storm from Harrisburg, PA on north 850 line around York, PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro is north and weaker with the second part. Like blizzard got a little lead vort trying to touch off stuff with a secondary one still digging thru the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 114 SLP over central WV, H5 vort digging down over KY. its definitely looking more amped this run then last but its going to be close with the thermal boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Gets some snow south of 40N mon PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Euro is north and weaker with the second part. Like blizzard got a little lead vort trying to touch off stuff with a secondary one still digging thru the trough. h5 looked more amped but the surface is a mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 114 SLP over central WV, H5 vort digging down over KY. its definitely looking more amped this run then last but its going to be close with the thermal boundary at 120 hrs, storm is in VA, but too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Thermal boundary gets pushed too far north by the lead wave, we need that to be weaker and wash out more, leaving the boundary closer to us for the second to amplify into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Models are all over the place with how much the troff digs, similar to 1/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 h5 looked more amped but the surface is a mess I wish I had saved images from pre blizzard. I swear the evolution at 500 seems like a copy almost over the eastern 2/3rds of CONUS region. Not that we'll see the same result.. and we didn't get the stripe from range (yet) but deja vu kinda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Very big swing run over run from last night. Lead vort and storm is much stronger. Trailing vort is tight on the heels. It really looks nothing like last night's evolution overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 126 looks okay. .15-.25" qpf with a good sfc and marginal 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 day 6 maps on Plymouth suggest something frozen still falling lightly 12Z Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 at 120 hrs, storm is in VA, but too warm its close, some decent snows just north of Baltimore, H5 track is very good still, cuts off over central VA for a time, but the whole surface is a mess from the initial wave pushing the polar boundary way up north leaving the second vort too much work to do to pull everything together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Very big swing run over run from last night. Lead vort and storm is much stronger. Trailing vort is tight on the heels. It really looks nothing like last night's evolution overall. good swing or bad swing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 day 6 maps on Plymouth suggest something frozen still falling lightly 12Z Tuesday looks like it shuts off around 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 its close, some decent snows just north of Baltimore, H5 track is very good still, cuts off over central VA for a time, but the whole surface is a mess from the initial wave pushing the polar boundary way up north leaving the second vort too much work to do to pull everything together. with pd2 (i know, terrible example) we had a little event friday evening followed by a high pressing down before the big overrunning. this sounds opposite. is the high retreating in this case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 it's more consolidated which is good and bad..major sleet/ZR/snow NW burbs and even nasty for DC....it still has the extended snow, but nothing crazy...it does get a decent amount of precip in here...0.5-0.75"+.....close call...even for DC...all day/evening Monday even DC proper is at/below 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 looks like it shuts off around 6z. ok, thx it looks like the remnants of wrap around/cbb at 700mb and 850mb RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Still waiting for WxBell, but based on the maps I saw, it looks like DC would get some snow out of the EURO. As PSUHoffman said, decent snow north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 good swing or bad swing? Good if the lead vort digs more. Problem is the lead vort and slp is stronger so the midlevels are jacked up until it slides underneath us. Big change in evolution and speed. Similar to what Ian was thinking earlier. We do get some snow because the low tracks far enough south. Rain to snow deal subject to change a lot. I'm not enthused after the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Still waiting for WxBell, but based on the maps I saw, it looks like DC would get some snow out of the EURO. As PSUHoffman said, decent snow north of Baltimore. I'm intrigued simply because of the lead time and the close call...places like BWI are at or below for like 24 hours with precipitation around....Monday could be nasty as hell if these models are honing in on some sort of broad solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wasn't 11-12 the last time we saw models consistently too far south with features in the 5-7 day frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm intrigued simply because of the lead time and the close call...places like BWI are at or below for like 24 hours with precipitation around....Monday could be nasty as hell if these models are honing in on some sort of broad solution.. Low could track further south into wv as well. It was a big change at h5 and the hp to the north is really strong. Plenty of cold to tap. Comes in no problem after the slp gets se of us. As you said, it could be quite a mess. Rain-zr-sleet-snow progression with temps falling the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Good if the lead vort digs more. Problem is the lead vort and slp is stronger so the midlevels are jacked up until it slides underneath us. Big change in evolution and speed. Similar to what Ian was thinking earlier. We do get some snow because the low tracks far enough south. Rain to snow deal subject to change a lot. I'm not enthused after the run. Maybe we'll get another rando displaced band to dump a few inches on parts of the area. I'm not sure if things are moving positively or negatively overall. I think a Euro solution is at least more believable to get flakes flying. How we stack up and feel when it's over is another thing heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z EURO 500mb more amped consolidated vs 12ZGFS and you can see the difference in the surface and precip fields. Just by looking at 500mb you'd think we were getting hit pretty good. Consolidated and further south 2nd vort and we are in for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Maybe we'll get another rando displaced band to dump a few inches on parts of the area. I'm not sure if things are moving positively or negatively overall. I think a Euro solution is at least more believable to get flakes flying. How we stack up and feel when it's over is another thing heh. Pretty much a sideways run all things considered. If the lead vort is going to be more amped and secondary is quick, it needs to be further south to get a real storm. Kinda feels like another miss to the north. Too close for comfort the entire time. We'll know our fate soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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