Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 yes...usually these things consolidate into one main system...which unless it switches back to those older runs where the 2nd system catches up, will probably be warm/mixStill tons of wiggle room. D5 is the new D10. . For now it's hard to believe we are chasing more than scraps realistically but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Bob what do you think of the look at 500 with the second vort? Doesn't seem like it's a bad look for us.... is the first vort within the continental US yet? just wondering how good of a sampling there is for this as of now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I think his point is why are you posting it in *this* thread? Why not in banter or the panic room? Because it's not banter and I'm commenting on the long range as the title says? But ok, I'll move it. nbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z looks better than 6z for frozen. Frozen is all I care about at this point as I have given up on a pure snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Still tons of wiggle room. D5 is the new D10. . For now it's hard to believe we are chasing more than scraps realistically but that could change. probably, but I think we are all traumatized, and understandably...seeing a run 5 days out where DC is at or below freezing for 24hrs+ with some sort of precip around would usually be met with some optimism/hope...but we have been stung...hopefully the GGEM shows 30" for HGR again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Bob what do you think of the look at 500 with the second vort? Doesn't seem like it's a bad look for us.... Too many run over run changes in both speed and evolution. It has the ability to get right for us but I'm pretty much with Ian's thoughts. It's complicated and that's bad for us. But track is decent. A lot depends on where the surface and 850 low track and when/where they strengthen. Precip shield is prob going to look a bit strange. Atypical. SLP track on the 12z from ky-east to nc-off the coast isn't terrible. GFS is good temp wise from 132-144 but precip is light. That can change along with a zillion other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Meh GGEM at 120... 1042 H in Quebec but 1008 L in OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 and yet I keep having to scroll through dozens of useless whining complaining posts by people acting like babies telling us how crappy this winter is. Jesus Christ get over it. It is what it is. Mother Nature don't care about your feelings. Filling this thread with woe is me crap is just annoying to those of us still trying to track threats the rest of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hmmm.... 144 has a 998 MSLP in NE NC... 1038 H in Quebec, but its moving slowly out -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Too many run over run changes in both speed and evolution. It has the ability to get right for us but I'm pretty much with Ian's thoughts. It's complicated and that's bad for us. But track is decent. A lot depends on where the surface and 850 low track and when/where they strengthen. Precip shield is prob going to look a bit strange. Atypical. SLP track on the 12z from ky-east to nc-off the coast isn't terrible. GFS is good temp wise from 132-144 but precip is light. That can change along with a zillion other things. And there's the real problem. Trying to get a handle on things has been tough this winter. About all you can do is peek at a model at about the 72 hour range. You might be able to get a good feel at that point. Looking 96 to 144 is about a total waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hmmm.... 144 has a 996 MSLP in NE NC... Huh? It moves from Ohio to NC? Re-development of some sort, I assume... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hmmm.... 144 has a 996 MSLP in NE NC... Bring it home Yoda...so from OH to NE NC...SSE trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Dang it, cold air won't get in fast enough at 138... so looks like everyone wins a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z looks better than 6z for frozen. Frozen is all I care about at this point as I have given up on a pure snow event Exactly....2nd vort gives some frozen and better than 6z. Lets go with that for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Canadian is a disaster for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Globals agree that the lead s/w will have no impact, wash out, and not have an effect on the second more important s/w. GFS solution @500mb doesn't consolidate enough to throw heavy amounts of moisture back into the cold sector of the storm. Right now we have a storm somewhat cut off from the northern jet so we're just left with nice surface low development but no good support/consolidation to get the precip going at the same time a strong High to the north that cant be tapped for its goods all because of the disorganized 500mb structure to our SE. Reminds me of those warm annoying March cutoffs where the northern jet retreats as a 980mb monster sits off the coast but in this particular case the vortex in Eastern Canada continues to rotate and keep high heights were we need them and the cold air supply very close. If (on the GFS) we can better/quicker consolidation @500mb as time goes on the cold air supply will easily be tapped and filter and of course better more expansive precip shield. Edit: Just saw the Canadian. Consolidates at 500 very quickly but of course the surface low develops to far inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Canadian is a disaster for everyone Somehow, someway, that cold air has to get in here. What a waste of a storm this run of the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Somehow, someway, that cold air has to get in here. Early April, probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 And there's the real problem. Trying to get a handle on things has been tough this winter. About all you can do is peek at a model at about the 72 hour range. You might be able to get a good feel at that point. Looking 96 to 144 is about a total waste of time. Especially with 2 tightly spaced vorts. Trying to figure out #2 is rough. Inside of hr96 we'll probably see some good agreement. My early guess is the agreement isn't going to be very friendly. We're battling track, strength, temps, and precip. Awful lot of warmer/rainier solutions showing up on ops and ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Somehow, someway, that cold air has to get in here. What a waste of a storm this run of the GGEM we actually are close to snow late Tuesday into Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Especially with 2 tightly spaced vorts. Trying to figure out #2 is rough. Inside of hr96 we'll probably see some good agreement. My early guess is the agreement isn't going to be very friendly. We're battling track, strength, temps, and precip. Awful lot of warmer/rainier solutions showing up on ops and ensembles. There's another on the second's tail too with pretty weak upstream ridging. I think we're already seeing the models start to push the second part thru faster. Would imagine that continues. That may kill off the warmest solutions a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 we actually are close to snow late Tuesday into WednesdayI would take a chance with the canadian solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 There's another on the second's tail too with pretty weak upstream ridging. I think we're already seeing the models start to push the second part thru faster. Would imagine that continues. That may kill off the warmest solutions a bit. Certainly possible. The funny thing is if you look at the h5 vort panels from 138-150 on the CMC you would think instant rakage here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hows the Ukie looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12Z GFS isn't terrible on the meteograms for HGR. Rain to prolonged icing to heavy snow by Tuesday morning. Too bad it will change a few more times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12Z GFS isn't terrible on the meteograms for HGR. Rain to prolonged icing to heavy snow by Tuesday morning. Too bad it will change a few more times. Yeah but its not good for MRB. .33 total with 1.2 inches as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 12z gefs isn't bad. Definitely an increase in favorable solutions compared to 6z. Weird storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 12Z GFS isn't terrible on the meteograms for HGR. Rain to prolonged icing to heavy snow by Tuesday morning. Too bad it will change a few more times.heavy snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 There's another on the second's tail too with pretty weak upstream ridging. I think we're already seeing the models start to push the second part thru faster. Would imagine that continues. That may kill off the warmest solutions a bit. Certainly possible. The funny thing is if you look at the h5 vort panels from 138-150 on the CMC you would think instant rakage here. I think as long as there is 'another' on the heels in the procession the models are not gonna have a firm grip on the situation. Flip-flop. flip-flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Canadian is a disaster for everyone It gets the H5 and SLP under us, I will go with that and take my chances its just a little too warm. Potential is still there. I still feel this is a low probability frozen but high end potential kind of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.