psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 no they (we) don't we are all too familiar with the seasonal trends and what has become ironic is that even the models have established a trend this season by advertising similar snow scenarios 4+ days out only to fail I think people read the models wrong, I don't remember any threat since the Thanksgiving one where a majority of models runs over consecutive days on end showed a big snow event. There have been lots of storms where a random run here or there would show snow. Or for one day all the models had an event before continuing to shift towards the correct solution. Take this storm, there has never been 2 straight runs where a majority of models showed us getting big snow. One run the GFS will...the next run its gone but the GGEM shows it. If you add up all the runs over a 3 day period maybe about 30 percent show snow. That is indicative that we have a shot but its less then 50/50. Problem is people will remember the one run of the Euro, or GFS or GGEM that showed a moster storm, and then when it doesnt happen thing "the models said we were getting snow and we didnt again". They have never indicated a high probability for any storm. This is not like 2010 where run after run for days we would get 10"+ on almost every op run. This is the type of pattern where every individual storm is low probability, but overall not a hostile pattern, if given enough shots one of these might work out. We have had PLENTY of snowstorms in this pattern in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Every cold shot lately is modeled too strong at a distance. Last Friday, my forecast temp Tuesday morning was 1. It was 17 in reality. Two days ago, my forecast low Friday was 6. At last check it had risen to 11. My guess is that it keeps climbing. The storms might be trending north lately because the cold air is trending north of where first modeled. Probably modeled that way with the then existing forecast there'd be a good snow pack on the ground. There was none, thus it was warmer. It changed as soon as it was clear we'd have no snow cover to radiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I think the problem if this doesn't work is not that the storm goes "North" its that the whole trough axis may end up too far east. The reason the initial vort starts north of us is the trough is so far east even though its diving south its coming across to our north. The h5 energy does eventually end up south of us, and in a good spot, but its fighting the initial system starting too far north due to the trough being very far east. It has to retrograde the entire thing almost. One way to work out is the first system is weak and leaves room for the second to go nuts and bomb out to our south but its not a perfect seetup at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Every cold shot lately is modeled too strong at a distance. Last Friday, my forecast temp Tuesday morning was 1. It was 17 in reality. Two days ago, my forecast low Friday was 6. At last check it had risen to 11. My guess is that it keeps climbing. The storms might be trending north lately because the cold air is trending north of where first modeled. Yup, That's exactly what's been happening. 5 days ago this upcoming cold shot for tomorrow and Friday was much colder looking. Now it has become a quick 24 shot. Most of the region gets above freezing Friday afternoon. All the modeled cold in the long range is way overdone. Sure it will be cold, especially relative to averages because they are starting to get warmer, but anything extreme is very suspect. I agree with you that the storms are responding accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Every cold shot lately is modeled too strong at a distance. Last Friday, my forecast temp Tuesday morning was 1. It was 17 in reality. Two days ago, my forecast low Friday was 6. At last check it had risen to 11. My guess is that it keeps climbing. The storms might be trending north lately because the cold air is trending north of where first modeled. probably due to an over forecasted block and an under forecasted +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The trailing vort is stronger on the GFS than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Eh, somewhat overstated it, but we did have a solidly -AO at times, and relative to this winter, it was pretty mega. I dont think the general public would have ever been made aware of "Polar Vortex" without the AO being pretty negative at times(and social media of course). We had an illusion of a -AO despite the scale being positive most of the winter. 2.029 1.475 2014 -0.969 0.044 1.206 0.972 0.464 -0.507 -0.489 -0.372 0.102 -1.134 -0.530 0.413 Dec 2013 1.206 Jan 2014 -969 Feb 2014 .044 March 1.206 March had that linkage from the EPO into euro pushing cold air over the top all month, so it was an illusion of an -AO. Only one month was negative last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We had an illusion of a -AO despite the scale being positive most of the winter. 2.029 1.475 2014 -0.969 0.044 1.206 0.972 0.464 -0.507 -0.489 -0.372 0.102 -1.134 -0.530 0.413 Dec 2013 1.206 Jan 2014 -969 Feb 2014 .044 March 1.206 March had that linkage from the EPO into euro pushing cold air over the top all month, so it was an illusion of an -AO. Only one month was negative last year Thanks. Yeah I went back and looked. "illusion" is a good way of putting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Lol 84hr nam analysis In this pattern, I'd bet 100% on the NAM at 84 hours. It shifted north last time. The NAM is an awful model and normally I wouldn't give a warm bucket of piss about it, but this year, it's 100% right. It's not like everything else hasn't shifted north. That's how it goes. I just want this to be over. You all should hope for a +NAO and a SE ridge at this point. I know I do. Don't care who is mad about it, this sh*t is for the birds and yet yall do it over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like GFS is going to lose its 2.5" QPF from 6z. A lot drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like GFS is going to lose its 2.5" QPF from 6z. A lot drier If this thing happens at all like the bigger model runs show the first part is almost certainly fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 In this pattern, I'd bet 100% on the NAM at 84 hours. It shifted north last time. The NAM is an awful model and normally I wouldn't give a warm bucket of piss about it, but this year, it's 100% right. It's not like everything else hasn't shifted north. That's how it goes. I just want this to be over. You all should hope for a +NAO and a SE ridge at this point. I know I do. Don't care who is mad about it, this sh*t is for the birds and yet yall do it over and over. oh my an experienced person in maryland, well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Hooray sleet soundings at 126 and 129! Barely snow sounding at 135 at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 At least the 12Z run is better than 6z and gives us all some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 At least the 12Z run is better than 6z and gives us all some snow Meh... 1-2 sucks GFS literally advertises hours of sleet to ~1 inch snow, maybe 2 if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I can only see out to 132, but it seems like a better run that 6z, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It mostly sucks.. I don't think is is going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like GFS is going to lose its 2.5" QPF from 6z. A lot drier How can you tell... I am only out to hour 96??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So wait... the Canadian is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Meh... 1-2 sucks too bad it starts in 6 hours and not 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 So wait... the Canadian is wrong? yes...the solution is locked in 5 days in advance...no reason to look at the next 20 GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Meh... 1-2 sucks GFS literally advertises hours of sleet to ~1 inch snow, maybe 2 if we get lucky. Been a while since we have had a good sleet storm... I remember 94 I believe to be a good sleet year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Meh... 1-2 sucks I think it's too early to worry about amounts. I'm in psuhoffman's camp... look at the big picture then focus on the details when we get closer to the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I think it's too early to worry about amounts. I'm in psuhoffman's camp... look at the big picture then focus on the details when we get closer to the time frame. obviously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 To me the big slow idea is still probably wrong. There's no great reason for it. De-slow it and it's a real snoozer for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Granted the models may be so wrong what we see isn't even close. The 500 is interesting but it reminds me of the blizzard mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm happy with the GFS surface low track through North Carolina/South Carolina. I'd happily take my chances with the surface low track depicted on the GFS. Guess the weenies just aren't happy unless they are complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 To me the big slow idea is still probably wrong. There's no great reason for it. De-slow it and it's a real snoozer for us. yes...usually these things consolidate into one main system...which unless it switches back to those older runs where the 2nd system catches up, will probably be warm/mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The only thing that is clear is the lead vort/precip will miss north. Beyond that is cloudier than Belfast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The only thing that is clear is the lead vort/precip will miss north. Beyond that is cloudier than Belfast Bob what do you think of the look at 500 with the second vort? Doesn't seem like it's a bad look for us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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