BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The WPC discussion says it all...and brings more tears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 06z GFS has the "wandering" low... but to see snow, to the I-81 corridor you must go... hrs 135 to 162... its cold rain for most of us Though there are two H's in Canada... so CAD maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wtf? What happened to 19 degree 2 m temps and 48 hours of snow.... Well I guess it wouldn't be morning without yet another monumental disaster on the global models You do know that 5 days out nothing is a "disaster", right? The storm is there, the details are to be sorted out. It could be rain, it could be snow, it could be both and ice, it could be nothing. But the signal for the set-up was on all the models last night, so that's of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 i am not bailing due to the 6z gfs run which actually has a good track. I would say we are in better shape this weekend than last weekend when there was zero hope c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 good point actually. and the fact that although the WPC is disregarding the European model suite the GFS has trended toward it with the meandering low and long duration precip. so who knows. Maybe the ensembles will help clear things up. but you are correct that everything is on the table and we are still 5 days at least from H-Hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 good point actually. and the fact that although the WPC is disregarding the European model suite the GFS has trended toward it with the meandering low and long duration precip. so who knows. Maybe the ensembles will help clear things up. but you are correct that everything is on the table and we are still 5 days at least from H-Hour its rather interesting the consistency of the models to make changes to forecast that seem to stick about 4-5 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 My thread got locked but we still have time for the 02/10 low to behave properly. The EURO has the slow moving thingie. So we are getting a signal, imperfect though it may be. As almost always, Wes is correct. The West Coast/Rocky Mountain ridge is somehow just not the best amplitude/position and the blocking at high latitude is not as sharp as was depicted last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It seems all of the models have come around to the long duration event the Euro had days ago. Who Knows what the precipitation types will be at this point. But if this wacky event verifies. It's a nice score by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 06z GFS has the "wandering" low... but to see snow, to the I-81 corridor you must go... hrs 135 to 162... its cold rain for most of us Though there are two H's in Canada... so CAD maybe? As depicted on the 6z GFS, 850's "torch" all the way up here (I live along I-81 near Hazleton) and about half the event is mixed or liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 i am not bailing due to the 6z gfs run which actually has a good track. I would say we are in better shape this weekend than last weekend when there was zero hope I'm with you on this. The track isn't awful and it this point it's such a strange evolution that things will probably change quite a bit in the next 48 hours of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 looks like the gfs continues to show a long complicated event. And it sounds like the euro has something similar, since I haven't seen the EURO maps. considering the two major globals have locked onto this strange scenario, I consider that to be a plus. Sounds like there might be enough snow for everybody in the final analysis, at least that's the possibility and that's all we can hope for this wretched winter. to worry about what someone else might get in the area of snowfall is a waste of time imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wtf? What happened to 19 degree 2 m temps and 48 hours of snow.... Well I guess it wouldn't be morning without yet another monumental disaster on the global models I have to agree with you. Reminiscent of what was supposed to happen yesterday according to the models last week. Close to 0 degree temps didn't quite work out, but I'll keep the faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wtf? What happened to 19 degree 2 m temps and 48 hours of snow.... Well I guess it wouldn't be morning without yet another monumental disaster on the global modelsWow it's just depressing in here. We just had a great 0z run. Every model showed some snow. A couple were big hits. Then one bad 6z gfs run and it's run for the life boats. Too many have gone full tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Wtf? What happened to 19 degree 2 m temps and 48 hours of snow.... Well I guess it wouldn't be morning without yet another monumental disaster on the global models What? You can't live and die by OP model runs outside of 96 hours. The threat is 4-5 days out; the important pieces now ar the overall players and potential which is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Let me be clear I think odds are against us but it's not a million to one. My gut right now we have a 25% chance of a 6"+ event. 25% 1-5" and 50% we get skunked. So yea odds are not great but I'm going to track the threat, hope, and roll the dice. Then if it doesn't happen I will look at the next threat probably around the 16th and so on until the pattern says we have no chance. Obviously some want to just complain over and over about their lack of snow which is odd given this year is no worse then about half our winters so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 FYI- I wasn't complaining. I was just pointing out a fact that the models, especially the Euro, were way off with temps yesterday. I am actually pretty upbeat. My dad is coming up from La. He likes snow as much as we all do and the last time he was here was 3/17/14, so I am hoping he brings the ju-ju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 FYI- I wasn't complaining. I was just pointing out a fact that the models, especially the Euro, were way off with temps yesterday. I am actually pretty upbeat. My dad is coming up from La. He likes snow as much as we all do and the last time he was here was 3/17/14, so I am hoping he brings the ju-ju. people look at it wrong. When there is a sharp thermal boundary like that it's not fair to say the model changed by 20 degrees when in reality it just shifted the boundary 50 miles and dc is now on the wrong side of it. That kind of shift is noise at 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We do tainted events with marginal temps fairly well here. Looks like the models are locked in on precip and a developing low to our SE, which is a good start. Now we will see the models bounce around with more taint, less taint for the next few days. Generally I wouldn't get too high or low on individual op runs at this range. The ensembles are probably still of more use at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Canadian ensembles are warm and wet. It looks like the 06z GFS dropped about 2.5" of qpf on the DC-Baltimore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Let me be clear I think odds are against us but it's not a million to one. My gut right now we have a 25% chance of a 6"+ event. 25% 1-5" and 50% we get skunked. So yea odds are not great but I'm going to track the threat, hope, and roll the dice. Then if it doesn't happen I will look at the next threat probably around the 16th and so on until the pattern says we have no chance. Obviously some want to just complain over and over about their lack of snow which is odd given this year is no worse then about half our winters so far. Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Pretty interesting event showing up right now...I'm leaning against a lot of frozen precip for Philly & DC, but with so many elements to this thing we won't have any clue on what might happen for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Bullish Maybe so, but he lives in the high hills of northern Carroll county so for that area I think his numbers are reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 We do tainted events with marginal temps fairly well here. Looks like the models are locked in on precip and a developing low to our SE, which is a good start. Now we will see the models bounce around with more taint, less taint for the next few days. Generally I wouldn't get too high or low on individual op runs at this range. The ensembles are probably still of more use at this point. Even that monster GGEM run has a very tainted HECS... often switches between 35 degree drizzle and heavy snow and even seems to end as rain (based on the tropicaltidbits precip panels). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Pretty interesting event showing up right now...I'm leaning against a lot of frozen precip for Philly & DC, but with so many elements to this thing we won't have any clue on what might happen for a few days now. I thought you would be bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Until I see a -NAO I feel like these events are all going to have us in the screw zone as far as temps go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Maybe so, but he lives in the high hills of northern Carroll county so for that area I think his numbers are reasonable. If someone put a gun to my head I would go with a stripe of 6-12 from the ohio valley to NE... MD/ PA line south rain... the only positive is that maybe... just maybe the 95 corridor from NY to Boston is just a little too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 people look at it wrong. When there is a sharp thermal boundary like that it's not fair to say the model changed by 20 degrees when in reality it just shifted the boundary 50 miles and dc is now on the wrong side of it. That kind of shift is noise at 120 hours. no they (we) don't we are all too familiar with the seasonal trends and what has become ironic is that even the models have established a trend this season by advertising similar snow scenarios 4+ days out only to fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 no they (we) don't we are all too familiar with the seasonal trends and what has come ironic is that even the models have established a trend this season by advertising similar snow scenarios 4+ days out only to fail Great post. I never believed in the seasonal trend... atmospheric memory nonsense... but the pattern is unfolding right before us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Early look at the SREF's absolutely don't comfort me in terms of snow chances, looks like they would be warm/north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Early look at the SREF's absolutely don't comfort me in terms of snow chances, looks like they would be warm/north. look at the mean....it's fookin' zonal across the country lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=087ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_087_500_vort_ht.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150204+09+UTC&imageSize=&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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