Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The Canadian is wet as sh-it....and precip type is questionable the whole run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The Canadian is wet as sh-it....and precip type is questionable the whole run You would think a 1040 H in Quebec region would help us some... guess GGEM didnt like that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 trough closes off around Hatteras, but warm at surface...what a goofy ass event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 You would think a 1040 H in Quebec region would help us some... guess GGEM didnt like that idea it did like that idea...there is low pressure in the OV and we are fluctuating as to precip type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 150 looks fun... once again 850 line just west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM is a 70 hour event - QPF is over 3"...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 on a side note, GFS has BWI down to -4F on the morning of 2/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's a hybrid between the really bad solutions and the really good ones..there is a phase but the frontrunning vort takes the lead....so the initial part of the storm is warm....eventually we get this deep trough to swing east and it spawns a coastal, but we lose our big cold producing high....it is still a super long duration mess...I'm out to late Tuesday evening and it is still snowing....it's a 60 hour event of some sort....when all is said and done we probably have 4-8" on the ground verbatim, but the evolution is all convoluted...and guaranteed to be wrong.... the details are a complicated mess...but there are a few consistent threads showing up, a pretty good trough axis and a good high location locked in. The lead vort throws a wrench in things, I would feel better if it was gone, but as is there is obvious potential in that period for something to pop off the mid atlantic coast as the h5 trough deepens and possibly cuts off. The models are going to shift around with the details but the setup gives us a chance. I am less worried about the specifics of each op run as I am seeing that the general setup is still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM is a 70 hour event - QPF is over 3"...LOL This run is ridiculous... but I would take half of the QPF as snow (as in IMO, not what model shows) 156 is nice... too bad we are prob 33/34... and parts of MD are over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 the details are a complicated mess...but there are a few consistent threads showing up, a pretty good trough axis and a good high location locked in. The lead vort throws a wrench in things, I would feel better if it was gone, but as is there is obvious potential in that period for something to pop off the mid atlantic coast as the h5 trough deepens and possibly cuts off. The models are going to shift around with the details but the setup gives us a chance. I am less worried about the specifics of each op run as I am seeing that the general setup is still there. yes...we can't worry about every run...I will follow every run, but there is no way the models are going to be able to get the details right anytime soon, if at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 end of run cold monster on the GFS fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 This run is ridiculous... but I would take half of the QPF as snow (as in IMO, not what model shows) 156 is nice... too bad we are prob 33/34... and parts of MD are over a foot of snow. for me and you, it is a pretty warm run....for a place like Hagerstown, it is some sort of frozen pummeling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 You would think a 1040 H in Quebec region would help us some... guess GGEM didnt like that idea 1. with a low tracking that close your assuming the high doesn't help...without the high this wouldnt even be close to snow 2. You are assuming the runs tonight are going to be exactly correct with the thermal gradient at 120 hours? they could easily be too far north 50 miles and then DC gets crushed. Its way too early to be freaking out about exact track and temperatures. Setup and potential is all we can look at now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GFS is pretty crazy IMBY. Looks like about 18 hours of rain, followed by 24 hours of freezing rain followed by 24 hours of snow. We end up with about a foot of snow (at 10:1 ratios), eastern PA gets about 2 feet. Nearly 2" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM verbatim has a crazy stupid cutoff across the region. kina reminds me of the March 58 storm in both duration, track, temperatures, and snowfall distribution. I am not saying this solution is right...again not worried about details, just find it interesting to look at but the totals are crazy for areas NW DCA: 6" IAD: 12" BWI: 8" Leesburg: 20" MRG & Westminster 25" HGR: 30" ETA: actually it keeps snowing a panel after I was looking at, might have to add a few inches to those totals...MRG to westminster are closer to 30" small jackpot just north of the MD/PA line north of baltimore of 35-40" again very very very much like the snowmap for 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM verbatim has a crazy stupid cutoff across the region. kina reminds me of the March 58 storm in both duration, track, temperatures, and snowfall distribution. I am not saying this solution is right...again not worried about details, just find it interesting to look at but the totals are crazy for areas NW DCA: 6" IAD: 12" BWI: 8" Leesburg: 20" MRG & Westminster 25" HGR: 30" I was just about to mention March 1958 after cae's comment about the GFS. Glad you brought it up. Lots of rain, lots of snow, and a motherlode of precip. Getting something like that in Feb would make it that much better, especially if followed by bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM verbatim has a crazy stupid cutoff across the region. kina reminds me of the March 58 storm in both duration, track, temperatures, and snowfall distribution. I am not saying this solution is right...again not worried about details, just find it interesting to look at but the totals are crazy for areas NW DCA: 6" IAD: 12" BWI: 8" Leesburg: 20" MRG & Westminster 25" HGR: 30" ETA: actually it keeps snowing a panel after I was looking at, might have to add a few inches to those totals...MRG to westminster are closer to 30" small jackpot just north of the MD/PA line north of baltimore of 35-40" again very very very much like the snowmap for 1958. Nuts, thats 2/5/2010 totals here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If we could only get that H to stay in place a lil longer... Highs are my department and I will work on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 GGEM verbatim has a crazy stupid cutoff across the region. kina reminds me of the March 58 storm in both duration, track, temperatures, and snowfall distribution. I am not saying this solution is right...again not worried about details, just find it interesting to look at but the totals are crazy for areas NW DCA: 6" IAD: 12" BWI: 8" Leesburg: 20" MRG & Westminster 25" HGR: 30" ETA: actually it keeps snowing a panel after I was looking at, might have to add a few inches to those totals...MRG to westminster are closer to 30" small jackpot just north of the MD/PA line north of baltimore of 35-40" again very very very much like the snowmap for 1958. Funny thing is, I'd normally be ridiculously stoked with 8-10 inches here in Towson, but if places 45 minutes north of me got 3 feet, I'd still feel miserable about the whole thing - haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I was just about to mention March 1958 after cae's comment about the GFS. Glad you brought it up. Lots of rain, lots of snow, and a motherlode of precip. I have been thinking about the march 58 storm a lot looking at some of the ensemble runs...just had that kind of look to a lot of the members. It finally showed up on some op runs recently. I think its a long shot to go down that way, but that was an analog year and I think that is the best case scenario upside of what this could do if it works out perfectly. Its a complicated setup and so one with high bust potential, but also with big upside potential. The h5 track in this case is actually great, just need the surface to work out for us. I also tend to think the thermal profile is more likely to shift south a little bit as this gets closer given the way this is evolving compared to the last few events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Funny thing is, I'd normally be ridiculously stoked with 8-10 inches here in Towson, but if places 45 minutes north of me got 3 feet, I'd still feel miserable about the whole thing - haha. towson is closer to 14" crazy stupid cutoff across Baltimore area...but details like that are irrelavent at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 For reference, this is what March 1958 looked like. Great storm for the area, epic for northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 displace that snowfall map about 30 miles west and its identical to the GGEM snowfall map tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 For comparison, here's the GFS map from tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 wow that isnt very far off either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I keep refreshing halfway expecting to see the zwyts "Euro says next" post ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Not a lot of precip early in euro run, but the 32 degree line sinks south below DC by midnight Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Looks like a weak coastal is forming/has formed at 144... 1005mb MSLP just S of OBX... 850s borderline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's basically rain to ZR to mix? to snow.....long duration....the trough doesn't go negative in time so the coastal is progressive...I'm out to 162....probably a 2-6" event depending where you are.....not very wet...like 0.5 - 0.75".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4, 2015 Author Share Posted February 4, 2015 I thought the euro ensembles looked promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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