mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 NAM now goes out to Saturday a/k/a set-up day http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150204+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 No one wants to do GFS pbp? More amped up and slower with the kicker than 18z. A little warmer though through 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 More amped up and slower with the kicker than 18z. A little warmer though through 108. you forgot the vortex in eastern Canada is far less impressive at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 you forgot the vortex in eastern Canada is far less impressive at 108 Yeah that too weaker high and warmer, but the troff looks better. May get snow when the coastal eventually takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 850 temps just keep rising at BWI into Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 such an awkward and nuanced event, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 such an awkward and nuanced event, aka complicated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 turns from rain to zr I guess it would turn to snow in later panels, but who knows how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 150 hrs 1000mb low over VA beach. 850mb line just south of Hagerstown, and Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Need that high in the position it was at 18z and we'd be in business. 500 looked better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 150 hrs 1000mb low over VA beach. 850mb line just south of hagerstown. the high pressure is a joke the only thing pressing about it is on my nerves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's a hybrid between the really bad solutions and the really good ones..there is a phase but the frontrunning vort takes the lead....so the initial part of the storm is warm....eventually we get this deep trough to swing east and it spawns a coastal, but we lose our big cold producing high....it is still a super long duration mess...I'm out to late Tuesday evening and it is still snowing....it's a 60 hour event of some sort....when all is said and done we probably have 4-8" on the ground verbatim, but the evolution is all convoluted...and guaranteed to be wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's a hybrid between the really bad solutions and the really good ones..there is a phase but the frontrunning vort takes the lead....so the initial part of the storm is warm....eventually we get this deep trough to swing east and it spawns a coastal, but we lose our big cold producing high....it is still a super long duration mess...I'm out to late Tuesday evening and it is still snowing....it's a 60 hour event of some sort....when all is said and done we probably have 4-8" on the ground verbatim, but the evolution is all convoluted...and guaranteed to be wrong.... it really has been a long time since we had a rain, to zr, to snow event, which is what is depicted on this run I'd take the 4-8" in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If we could only get that H to stay in place a lil longer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Harrisburg to Allentown gets crushed this run. We get A few inches for the northwest burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 If we could only get that H to stay in place a lil longer... we're left with the same nagging problem we've had all year...the modeled block will not be as great as advertised days in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Clarity hasn't improved since Saturday. Fun in a jacked up kind of way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 it really has been a long time since we had a rain, to zr, to snow event, which is what is depicted on this run I'd take the 4-8" in a heartbeat For DC this is a VERY rough evolution...obviously will be better NW. 4am Sunday to 4am Monday - 0.25" of rain 4am Monday to Midnight - 0.8" of rain/freezing rain - around 32 whole time Midnight to 10pm Tuesday - 0.4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Awesome run for southern PA... even though it looks very flukish. 2-4" here with a closed 500mb tracking 75 miles too our south. Now if that same closed 500mb were to track 75 miles south of Boston they will get 20"-30" just like 4/1/1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Tonight's UKIE looks intriguing... 120 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 For DC this is a VERY rough evolution...obviously will be better NW. 4am Sunday to 4am Monday - 0.25" of rain 4am Monday to Midnight - 0.8" of rain/freezing rain - around 32 whole time Midnight to 10pm Tuesday - 0.4" of snow 18z GFS had DCA at 18 on Monday afternoon, 0z near 40. Gotta love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 00z GGEM has a massive 1042 H in eastern Quebec at 144 with MSLP of 1006mb located in NW SC... will have more in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z GFS had DCA at 18 on Monday afternoon, 0z near 40. Gotta love it I agree with the point you are making, but DCA isn't near 40....it's 32-33 which is why I specifically say "around 32 whole time" in the post you replied to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z GFS had DCA at 18 on Monday afternoon, 0z near 40. Gotta love it you wouldnt think the data disparity would be this great!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Borderline SN at DCA hr 126 and 132 on 00z GGEM... happens at night so that will help a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 00z GGEM has a massive 1042 H in eastern Quebec at 144 with MSLP of 1006mb located in NW SC... will have more in a few what is the value of the high on the gfs same time frame?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Through 144... its a north of DC storm... MD does well so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm stuck at 126 which is very borderline as to precip type..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'm stuck at 126 which is very borderline as to precip type..... Yeah... seems like the 850 line and 32 degree line are right over DCA... MD is doing well snow accum wise at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 18z GFS had DCA at 18 on Monday afternoon, 0z near 40. Gotta love it It doesn't indicate a big change run over run. We're livin on the edge. The cold to the north hasn't changed much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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