Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 One of the weirdest medium range model runs I've ever seen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 One of the weirdest medium range model runs I've ever seen lol but they have been looking weird for this event for a few days now... anyway...Monday at 1pm, DCA is 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 but they have been looking weird for this event for a few days now... anyway...Monday at 1pm, DCA is 15 Interesting run, I'd be happy with 3 inches if we could get a low to go to our south instead of the euro track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 lol. Two days of 1/4" per hour rates. It has taken you two months to get less than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 unfortunately the trough closes off way too late, so precip shuts off after around 52 hours....what a hilarious run...hopefully something consolidates and we get more than 6" in 2 days...though could be more..I doubt it ends up looking like that. Closer in we will probably see a more consolidated system. If not I wouldn't complain about 6-10" area wide over 2 days. Something about beggars and choosers or some such nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z GFS 6 days out is the money zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 One difference on this model run from our last systems that have gone north of us is the ridge in the west. Look how far east it is compared to where it was with the earlier systems. That prevents the second shortwave from digging too sharply and amplifying too far west. I have no clue whether it is right or wrong but do think it shows how much uncertainty remains. The UKmet had a diggy look but with the low farther north but not as bad looking as the euro. The big difference from the previous gfs run is better confluence to the N so the lead shortwave is able to dig far enough south and shear out with slp underneath us while the trailing shortwave re-amplifies everything. I ran through most of the euro member loops and almost every one with a dominant lead shortwave had lp tracking either overhead or through PA didn't have anything behind it. All the good hits had a similar evolution as the gfs. Now the GFS joins the CMC/Ukie/JMA solution with the trailing vort being the big show. I think a good simpleton view would be to watch the lead shortwave and confluence to the N. This would keep the slp tracking through the midwest from being too strong and setting the stage for light snow on the front and maybe a decent hit from the trailing energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS looks like the UKMET. I was going to say the second S/W had no chance, but I guess it has a slim one. Going to need at least a partial phase to get it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z GFS looks like it split the difference between the 12z GGEM, which was a little to far south (for me) and the 12z GFS, which was a little too far north. Goldilocks run. It says snow will start falling in our area in less than 5 days. Time to start a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I don't care if it's the 18z gfs. I don't care that it's 5 days away from onset. I don't care if it's taken away. I simply like looking at this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd really like to know what is causing the models to consistently show ridiculous cold in the day 5 through 15 range. The 18z run was absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Interesting GFS run. I hope it's on to something by washing out the lead shortwave more, allowing for more confluence along with amplification of the trailing one. Seems to be our best bet. Don't buy the long duration thing at this point, but it's something. Don't want a Groundhog Day repeat on this one (paging Bill Murray!). Oh, and the GFS pulls an event for Presidents' Day...LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'd really like to know what is causing the models to consistently show ridiculous cold in the day 5 through 15 range. The 18z run was absurd. The ops GFS and the ensembles (in the mean) have been showing that for some time now. Obviously the ops has detail that changes by cycle in the later periods but it's overall consistent with the ensemble mean. We'll see if it's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I don't care if it's the 18z gfs. I don't care that it's 5 days away from onset. I don't care if it's taken away. I simply like looking at this map. 18z.JPG Yeah, who cares if it's the 18Z GFS, that's a thing of beauty! Looks vaguely familiar...hmmm...like last Thursday! Maybe this time we manage to get things right. Maybe. I think this might be an appropriate sentiment... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO0x7vL2T90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The ops GFS and the ensembles (in the mean) have been showing that for some time now. Obviously the ops has detail that changes by cycle in the later periods but it's overall consistent with the ensemble mean. We'll see if it's real. Could you image if a crazy cold February verified with less than 2 inches snowfall. Something like 2007 but with no snow. I'm too lazy to look up what was the coldest Feb. with the least amount of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Could you image if a crazy cold February verified with less than 2 inches snowfall. Something like 2007 but with no snow. I'm too lazy to look up what was the coldest Feb. with the least amount of cold. Personally, I thought February 2007 was a lot of fun, and oh-so-close to being truly awesome (the Valentine's Day storm just missed). It was epically cold...not sure if it was the coldest on record for the DC area but I think it was around a -8 departure or there about in terms of temperature. Many areas in the eastern third or so of the country were similarly very cold. We got a decent amount of snow, too. The Valentine's Day storm was a disappointment in a way because we missed out on the heavy snow (when it looked like a good Nor'Easter along the coast for awhile). But we ended up with 3" of sleet here closer in town, while areas farther out got more snow. That's at testament to how cold it really was. Of course, right after that it was quite frigid, and the sleet turned into a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Yeah, who cares if it's the 18Z GFS, that's a thing of beauty! Looks vaguely familiar...hmmm...like last Thursday! Maybe this time we manage to get things right. Maybe. I think this might be an appropriate sentiment... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VO0x7vL2T90 Nice usage of the LOTR quote. I too hope we manage to get things right this go around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Nice usage of the LOTR quote. I too hope we manage to get things right this go around Glad you appreciated it (figured you might, being a LOTR fan as well)!! To me, it expresses the sentiment about a lot of events this winter, and the event currently being discussed is a perfect example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Only 2 more days to be inside of 72 hours. It is interesting that the GFS looks a lot like yesterdays Euro run. The HP position is far better than last weekends debacle. As long as the HP stays out in front of the vort. This one has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Only 2 more days to be inside of 72 hours. It is interesting that the GFS looks a lot like yesterdays Euro run. The HP position is far better than last weekends debacle. As long as the HP stays out in front of the vort. This one has a chance. I like the fact that it's moving NW to SE...SW to NE always makes me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 I'd really like to know what is causing the models to consistently show ridiculous cold in the day 5 through 15 range. The 18z run was absurd. The beginning of time, since they've always done this. The fast pacific flow maybe making it slightly worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Well the 500 mb map showed marked improvement on the happy hour GFS. If nothing else, it seems like a fun one to track. That GFS run was a weenie run for the ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Well the 500 mb map showed marked improvement on the happy hour GFS. If nothing else, it seems like a fun one to track. That GFS run was a weenie run for the ages. Did anyone post on the ensembles? Seems like they would be useful for 1 more day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Did anyone post on the ensembles? Seems like they would be useful for 1 more day They'll be useful for several days. 18z gefs mslp track is a little north of the op but it's complicated. Lead low tracks from basically Indianapolis to north central wva. After that is the same weird stuff the euro ens shows. Looping the members give even less clarity. It's all on the table. Hopefully the wed/thurs runs figure out the lead vort/low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Did anyone post on the ensembles? Seems like they would be useful for 1 more day http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html scroll down for 18z ensembles ETA: Bob beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewallmref.html scroll down for 18z ensembles ETA: Bob beat me to it Thanks guys. Convoluted as expected. It might be until game time with this set up. Block is nice but east for my liking. Storm could stall but too far off shore for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 It's still a low probability event no matter which way you slice it. For the lead vort to snow, we need it to run downhill from the Dakotas through the Midwest and down to ky or south half of wva. That's a lot to ask. It's possible but zero wiggle room. Then the whole thing with the trailing vort is tricky and complicated from where we sit one. Tricky and complicated are 2 words you don't want to here when discussing a ma snow threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Not sure how common it is but check out d15 of the 18z gefs. There's a continuous area of ridging from basically NM/AZ extending through AK that connects to a ridge stretching from central india-over Mt Everest and through Siberia. It's like a 10k mile ridge bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Not sure how common it is but check out d15 of the 18z gefs. There's a continuous area of ridging from basically NM/AZ extending through AK that connects to a ridge stretching from central india-over Mt Everest and through Siberia. It's like a 10k mile ridge bridge. this weakish NINA is starting to have resemblances of 76/77, except this year seems to be back loaded instead of front loaded like 76/77 snowfall is sadly on par too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 this weakish NINA is starting to have resemblances of 76/77, except this year seems to be back loaded instead of front loaded like 76/77 snowfall is sadly on par too Imo- we're in enso no man's land. We had a Nino pattern earlier in the season but it faded. +pdo probably has the largest influence on the Pac and it could be showing its hand with the prolonged +pna we seem to be moving towards. The -epo could be an artifact from last season. Not really sure. Heck the +nao could be part of a multi year cycle we know little about. Weird year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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