Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Can someone explain what the Euro Control Run is? Is this taken from the Ensembles? Most accurate? Ensembles are lower resolution than the op and they all start with slightly different initial conditions (perturbed) than the op run except for one ensemble member. The control run. Basically, the euro control and gefs control members are the only ensemble members that initialize with identical initial conditions as the higher res op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Can someone explain what the Euro Control Run is? Is this taken from the Ensembles? Most accurate? Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the control run is run at the same (lower) resolution as the ensembles, but without the perturbed initial conditions that each ensemble member starts with (in other words, the same initial conditions as the main run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that the control run is run at the same (lower) resolution as the ensembles, but without the perturbed initial conditions that each ensemble member starts with (in other words, the same initial conditions as the main run). So that means when using it to forecast it should be given the weight of any other individual ensemble member? Which is of course very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm only looking at the plate and the box. If the guy at the plate strikes out and ends the inning the I don't care who's up next until the other team bats. Honestly, I'd much prefer a 2-4/3-5 deal with the lead vort so I don't have to give a crap about the complicated part working out. I'm not chasing anything except accum snow. However small it may be. I wouldn't say "no" to a 2-4, but that doesn't get us to the WSW/warning criteria I want for at least one storm. I could care less about nickel and diming to climo snow, that adds up to a crap winter from where I sit. Just want one good storm of 5+ inches area-wide. If the second vort has a shot at that, I am all for rooting that the lead vort go away as quickly as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Ensembles are lower resolution than the op and they all start with slightly different initial conditions (perturbed) than the op run except for one ensemble member. The control run. Basically, the euro control and gefs control members are the only ensemble members that initialize with identical initial conditions as the higher res op runs. Thanks, Bob. The difference between the OP and Control are OP runs at a higher resolution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I know it seems depressing around here, but if you took a step back, looked at both the EURO & GFS ensembles for February, you'd be pretty excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Thanks, Bob. The difference between the OP and Control are OP runs at a higher resolution? Yes. The value is whether they diverge or look similar during medium leads. It's a sign that the higher resolution could be overdoing something and lowers confidence in the op depiction. When they look very similar is raises confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 We have some waves and we have a nice sharp trof. We'll learn more inside 72 hours. Until then, the models will be filled with noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z GFS has a better press of cold air @ 96 hours, let's see if it can do anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 So that means when using it to forecast it should be given the weight of any other individual ensemble member? Which is of course very low.Only use the control when nothing else looks good and it shows hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 much better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 18z GFS so far is weaker more progressive with the lead wave Edit: much weaker with the lead, this should be a better run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 by late Sunday afternoon in the mid 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Long duration event. We're going to get suckered in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I know it seems depressing around here, but if you took a step back, looked at both the EURO & GFS ensembles for February, you'd be pretty excited right now.I'm with you man but this argument is like trying to convince the tea party we need more government regulation in here. The audience is not very receptive.ETA: given the pattern and the indication it nat last a while I still think we have a 50% chance of scoring a warning criteria event. Only issue is do we take heads or tails ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Wow GFS 500mb like night and day 18z vs 12z. Lead wave is washed out with little surface reflection, juice for wave#2 is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I wonder if this baby is gonna close off around E NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS about to do what the old EURO runs were doing with that crazy long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Long duration event. We're going to get suckered in Oh man! Lucy has picked up the ball on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Monday at 1pm, DCA is 18 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 There's too much energy on the backside of the trough so it looks like it is going to just spin Southeastward...not sure if it'll throw moisture back into our region though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 45 hour event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 One difference on this model run from our last systems that have gone north of us is the ridge in the west. Look how far east it is compared to where it was with the earlier systems. That prevents the second shortwave from digging too sharply and amplifying too far west. I have no clue whether it is right or wrong but do think it shows how much uncertainty remains. The UKmet had a diggy look but with the low farther north but not as bad looking as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 It snows in S PA for like 45 hours straight, 10" or so, lol @ those epic rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 now at 48 hours straight of precip...only about 1" QPF....starts as rain/mix for some of us, but looks like snow for the final 44 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 These models man, 6-12" for all in a long event, this would be a situation where Winter Storm Warnings would not necessarily be issued. We are right where we were last week lol. 0z will be telling...........or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 GFS is real close to an epic event, I really think this is a Mid-Atlantic event with the HP there, ridge farther E. positively tilted trough. It could blow up but spin southeasterly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 lol. Two days of 1/4" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 At least we have digital snow in this pattern. Last pattern we had weeks of nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 unfortunately the trough closes off way too late, so precip shuts off after around 52 hours....what a hilarious run...hopefully something consolidates and we get more than 6" in 2 days...though could be more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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