paxpatriot Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm actually happy to see the Euro isn't showing 12-24 inches of snow in the 5-day range. When has that worked out for us this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I haven't seen the ukmet panels but the only reason the jma is a good hit is because of the trailing vort. First vort passes N. Second one comes in strong and a good track. Completely separate events. Not a fan of the cmc so I really don't take that into account unless it has support. I'm not sure it does. I think the ukie may be the same as the jma with the trailing vort being the star. It could end up going down that way but imo the gfs/euro are probably more right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I'm actually happy to see the Euro isn't showing 12-24 inches of snow in the 5-day range. When has that worked out for us this winter? When has anything, except one clipper or mangled messes to cold, driving rains, worked out for us this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Is that High in Canada retreating? allowing the low to come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This has been the worst winter season for the models since pre 2009-10. Not only have they been bad on surface features they have been bad on temps. Today was supposed to be an arctic blast, highs in low 20's and low around 0 . Instead we have low in low 20's and highs in 30's. Too much refinement I think, if a butterfly farts in Idaho everthing gets shunted north 300 miles. Also remember the inescapable fact that a myriad of portrayls allows for confirmation come verification time. Seasonal trends are Very Real and models are not programmed to consider that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Very deflating after the uk and ggem kept it south. I've noticed most times the uk and ec are close. Will wait to see the euro ens to see if maybe it was just a fluke op run. They will completely support the OP. Will probably even be worse than the OP. Again, I'm confident of this. This is how it goes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Good news is the cold front thread thingy isn't giving anyone much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 it wouldn't matter one iota if you were in the bullseye in the beginning, the pattern says no. One year all we got was ice,pattern said no!! But do what you want!! Baltimore Statistics (Year ) (Snow going into Feb) ( Year Total) 1894/4.3/21 1896/1.2/17.8 1890/3.2/25.7 1908/4.7/17.3 1914/T/23 1915/5.0/16.0 1916/5.8/19.0 1924/2.1/33.6 1926/6.0/20.7 1929/1.0/12.2 1931/2.7/13.4 1934/8.0/47.9 1937/2.8/25.6 1941/7.0/23.9 1942/3.1/26.3 1944/5.9/20.3 1960/1.8/34.1 1969/4.4/18.6 1972/2.1/14.0 1986/2.6/15.6 1993/2.9/24.4 2006/6.5/19.6 2015/6.8/??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 On a good note the EURO is forming the all-time BECS we've been searching for at 240 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Not giving up hope on this Monday event, this storm has a HP in a much better spot so I wouldn't be surprised if this one trends south unlike this last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 yes...GEFS look better than the OP and Can ENS worse than the OP but still ok....I'm kind of ignoring the Canadian for now...this past weekend It still had a low off Myrtle Beach after the GFS/EURO had already shifted way north The Canadian had a couple of bad runs (12z on 1/29 and 00z on 1/30) where it put the low off the outer banks. The 00z run was particularly bad, because that's when the other models shifted north. But every model has bad runs now and then. On 1/28, the CMC had the low going up through Ohio when the GFS barely had the storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 They will completely support the OP. Will probably even be worse than the OP. Again, I'm confident of this. This is how it goes this year. Actually the ens mean is way south, SLP is over western NC at 144 hours. Of course it doesn't mean anything other then this is still a threat. Guidance is all over but honestly it should be at 120+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro ens pretty unimpressive. Similar on the lead vort being too far north. There are some good hits with the trailing/secondary evolution but they are complicated. We don't do complicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Have to wait or the individual members but from the mean if anything most might be a miss to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Actually the ens mean is way south, SLP is over western NC at 144 hours. Of course it doesn't mean anything other then this is still a threat. Guidance is all over but honestly it should be at 120+ hours out. Look at the low location plot @ 132 though. A big cluster of lows in bad spots. If we miss the front runner, it would take complicated luck to get the second shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Euro ens pretty unimpressive. Similar on the lead vort being too far north. There are some good hits with the trailing/secondary evolution but they are complicated. We don't do complicated I never thought the front running vort was a threat to be anything significant. It is coming into the trough too far north. Even if it were to be suppressed under us that would just mean its being squashed. Our threat of a bigger snow was/is if either the trailing vort catches and captures or if the second vort bombs out on its own. That is complicated, so this is low risk. I actually like the idea of something following this taking advantage as the trough axis retrogrades west a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 14 of the 50 ensemble members absolutely pummel the Mid-Atlantic....but definitely a ton of misses in there. EDIT: and I can't speak to the logic of the big hits, which tend to involve a very slow moving low creeping up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looking at the UKMET the 1st and second s/w's have good separation allowing the 2nd s/w to do its thing and amp up. Also the key to the UKMET is the first s/w is progressive and doesn't lower heights in front of the 2nd s/w which is exactly what we need. I've seen in the past similar situations as we get closer models will key in on one of the s/w's as the "dominant" one. Usually it ends up being the 2nd, because as the s/w amplifies it raises heights and keeps the lead s/w progressive, weak, or even trends towards washing it out with very little surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Look at the low location plot @ 132 though. A big cluster of lows in bad spots. If we miss the front runner, it would take complicated luck to get the second shot. The lead vort is a lost cause. Look at the GGEM, it gets under us but squashes it pretty bad to do it...its a PERFECT track and still no one really gets more then 6" and only a small area gets that. That vort is going to go north of us. Our shot comes after as the trough digs in. It might be the second one like the UKMET, or perhaps one after that like the op euro but we have a window of opportunity for a few days. The euro ens imply a hit from the second vort. precip mean still shows 5 panels from 150-180 hours with above .1 qpf over our area, after the lead vort is out of the way and we should be cold enough by then. I am NOT arguing that it is likely but they still imply some chance of a hit from that trailing vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Looking at the UKMET the 1st and second s/w's have good separation allowing the 2nd s/w to do its thing and amp up. Also the key to the UKMET is the first s/w is progressive and doesn't lower heights in front of the 2nd s/w which is exactly what we need. I've seen in the past similar situations as we get closer models will key in on one of the s/w's as the "dominant" one. Usually it ends up being the 2nd, because as the s/w amplifies it raises heights and keeps the lead s/w progressive, weak, or even trends towards washing it out with very little surface reflection. great analysis of the situation...no way to know from this far out what the real result will be. Obviously low probability but a threat. I like the overall period next week for something to pop up in that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The lead vort is a lost cause. Look at the GGEM, it gets under us but squashes it pretty bad to do it...its a PERFECT track and still no one really gets more then 6" and only a small area gets that. That vort is going to go north of us. Our shot comes after as the trough digs in. It might be the second one like the UKMET, or perhaps one after that like the op euro but we have a window of opportunity for a few days. The euro ens imply a hit from the second vort. precip mean still shows 5 panels from 150-180 hours with above .1 qpf over our area, after the lead vort is out of the way and we should be cold enough by then. I am NOT arguing that it is likely but they still imply some chance of a hit from that trailing vort. Almost every big hit on the euro members has the lead vort either being unorganized or passing just over or south of us. Every one that has decent low track across PA has nothing behind it. It may be a lost cause for substantial snow but imo if an organized system tracks over or north of us then the secondary won't happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 great analysis of the situation...no way to know from this far out what the real result will be. Obviously low probability but a threat. I like the overall period next week for something to pop up in that trough. Thanks appreciate it! I agree, so many darts being thrown next week. I really like that we have Eastern Canadian Vortex/source of cold air nearby the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I know this is way out there, but do the Euro ensembles show anything around 2/14? 48% of Canadian ensemble members show DC getting snow that day, with some big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Almost every big hit on the euro members has the lead vort either being unorganized or passing just over or south of us. Every one that has decent low track across PA has nothing behind it. It may be a lost cause for substantial snow but imo if an organized system tracks over or north of us then the secondary won't happen at all. Bob agree on the fact we need that lead to be unorganized, I like that some ensemble members show that. In line with UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Almost every big hit on the euro members has the lead vort either being unorganized or passing just over or south of us. Every one that has decent low track across PA has nothing behind it. It may be a lost cause for substantial snow but imo if an organized system tracks over or north of us then the secondary won't happen at all. You are 100 percent correct, I don't disagree with your analysis. We need the lead vort to be weak and wash out leaving space for the trailing vort to dig and and bomb out. I am just saying I don't see much potential for a big storm from that lead vort. Its coming at us all wrong. The second or even third vort coming into the trough, however, have a shot to do something big. If the lead vort washes out I think the trailer on Monday could do it. If the lead vort is dominant then we probably have to wait until later in the week to see if the next vort can do it. Lots of options at this point. I am not sold that lead vort is going to be the main player yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I know this is way out there, but do the Euro ensembles show anything around 2/14? 48% of Canadian ensemble members show DC getting snow that day, with some big hits. That might be the storm that the op euro seems to be brewing in the TN valley day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 That might be the storm that the op euro seems to be brewing in the TN valley day 10. Ji's already on his way to starting a "Valentine's Day 2015 Blizzard Threat" thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I love Hizenburgs enthusiasm, but if his screen name matched the way these great looks have panned out, it would be Hindenburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 You are 100 percent correct, I don't disagree with your analysis. We need the lead vort to be weak and wash out leaving space for the trailing vort to dig and and bomb out. I am just saying I don't see much potential for a big storm from that lead vort. Its coming at us all wrong. The second or even third vort coming into the trough, however, have a shot to do something big. If the lead vort washes out I think the trailer on Monday could do it. If the lead vort is dominant then we probably have to wait until later in the week to see if the next vort can do it. Lots of options at this point. I am not sold that lead vort is going to be the main player yet though. I'm only looking at the plate and the box. If the guy at the plate strikes out and ends the inning the I don't care who's up next until the other team bats. Honestly, I'd much prefer a 2-4/3-5 deal with the lead vort so I don't have to give a crap about the complicated part working out. I'm not chasing anything except accum snow. However small it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Can someone explain what the Euro Control Run is? Is this taken from the Ensembles? Most accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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