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February mid to long range threats discussion


Ji

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What's your reasoning?

 

The persistent trough and the accompanying GLL that have been there all season. I would love to know why that will be out of there for this surge of moisture, but haven't found a reason to guess that this will be the time a high is there when we need it. The dance seems to be, with a low properly positioned to our south, we cannot buy a high to the north.

 

That a GLL is once again being modeled seems pretty consistent with what we have seen this winter for our area.

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I think one thing we need to keep it mind regarding the global outlooks for the next 10-14 days...

Many of you already noted that our current major Nor'easter may have a lot to say in terms of the modulation of the longwave pattern over the next 2 weeks, particularly (hopefully) with some downstream blocking that otherwise wouldn't have been there. Here's another thing to consider: there's going to be a widespread snowpack of 1-2+ feet of snow to our northeast. Let's see what this can do in terms of shifting the upper confluence zone, surface high, and storm track south a little. It certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Side note: Looping several days of IR and WV satellite imagery would show, without extrapolation, that the energy and compact moisture shield associated with the vigorous vort over the mid MS Valley yesterday -- the very one that survived the trek overtop the east PAC ridge -- could be traced back to the typhoon in the Philippines (when the Pope was there). I found this interesting, especially since this energy led to such a vigorous wave in the Midwest yesterday, with a robust +PV anomaly and a negative tilt which obviously aided to the coastal development. Certainly more than what would otherwise been your average northern stream clipper..

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